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Moonlight Magic is my idea of the winner, trained by a master, won well LTO and form has been franked by Beacon Rock, by Cape Cross, should stay and like fast ground…just wish he wasn’t owned by Godolphin!
I’m in full agreement Joliff, I think he looks solid and still overpriced at 12/1. I put him
up a while back on this thread, Darren was singing his praises well before that, and I’m
surprised you can still get 12/1, that’s the value in the race for me. His only loss was on
heavy ground at Leopardstown, he won’t encounter that ground at Epsom, his other 3 races he
won well. Unlike many here, there are no question marks against him. I hope we’re both smiling
come a week on Saturday
Bolger said he has a dirty scope after the Ballysax as well
What about one of the supplemented runners? I believe a supplementary won one of the Irish classics last weekend.
I don’t really follow the flat. but winning supplementaries did catch my eye last season making me wonder if there might be an edge there? Perhaps I’m noticing only the winning ones.
Are they formally published when supplemented?
Actually interesting quiz question- when was the last horse to be supplemented for the Derby actually win the race?
Actually interesting quiz question- when was the last horse to be supplemented for the Derby actually win the race?
You don’t have to go any further back than last year Judge. Golden Horn
was supplemented after his win in the Dante Stakes at York. Anthony Oppenheimer
coughed up the 75 Grand, small change to him, and the rest as they say is history.Actually interesting quiz question- when was the last horse to be supplemented for the Derby actually win the race?
Golden Horn
Yeah I was thinking that actually, although Golden Horn was a horse in a lifetime
But have there been any other examples of horses being supplemented that have actually won the race? And you’ve got to think there’s been loads over the last few years who have been supplemented and haven’t won
The only reason I ask is because I think if a horse was in the race from day one then maybe it’s there for a reason
Several hundred horses are entered in the Derby at the earliest stage and many are in there long before there can be confidence that the horse is good enough. It’s purely breeding based and Coolmore have a shed load of them in there that are not good enough, sometimes we never see them on a racecourse.
I always pay particular attention to Hamdan Al Maktoum as he seems to have all his well bred colts entered just as a matter of course, hardly any of them ever prove good enough to run.
Normally it is rapid and relatively late improvers who give connections the problem of supplementing at the most expensive stage or not.
Wings Of Desire was actually originally in the Derby this year, then got taken out and now needs supplementing. I would be taking the money out of Gosden’s face if I were the owner 🙂
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
But have there been any other examples of horses being supplemented that have actually won the race? And you’ve got to think there’s been loads over the last few years who have been supplemented and haven’t won.
This was the subject of a quiz question recently.
The only other Derby winner to be supplemented other than Golden Horn was Kris Kin in 2003. He was originally entered in the race as a yearling but was taken out following a poor 2-y-o debut. Then he went and won the Dee Stakes at 3, so connections put him back in the race at a cost of £90,000. The late entry was recommended by Sir M. Stoute, which leaves one wondering whose idea it was to scratch the horse in the first place.
The first supplementary entry to the Derby was the filly Cape Verde in 1998. The total number of such entries to the race stands at 19 as at 2015.
2 out of 19 is a poor stat isn’t it! I never like horses that are run as an afterthought though this year they supplemented horses look like making up half the field. In defence of aimed the trainers, the first entry stage is so early that it is almost impossible to know if those ugly ducklings will end up being swans. Also at this time of the year fillies and colts can improve so quickly they can often take their connections by surprise. I remember a few years back Juddmonte making the financial decision not to enter all their yearlings in the Derby reasoning that it would be much more cost effective to do it at the second entry stage.
It’s such an open year really – I mean back in October who would have predicted the first few in the betting. A nightmare for AP punters.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I concur regarding the difficulties faced by trainers in these situations, Jonibake. Presumably the owner, Saeed Suhail in the case of Kris Kin, has a say in which horses stand their ground, though. Primarily I’m entertained by the idea of an animated discussion between owner and trainer before supplementing, considering there might well have been a difference of opinion eight months previously.
Other points to consider when supplementing are (a) the comparative wealth of the owner and (b) the calculated risk involved. Saeed Suhail might have had £90,000 in his petty cash box at the time, hence the cost was immaterial to him. Furthermore, supplementing and failing to win might not be a complete bust.
Two other horses, in the shape of Norse Dancer & Dutch Gold, were also supplemented in 2003. I don’t have the prize money breakdown for that year but I’m guessing a horse needed to finish third in order to recoup the investment. Norse Dancer finished 4th (beaten 2½ lengths) so it wasn’t a total disaster for his owner.
Last year the supplementary fee for the final entry stage was £75,000. Fourth place would have been good enough to just about break even on cost and reward.
I suspect that if there is an edge in betting supplemented horses the key is to know who initiated the supplementary. Some very rich owners might supplement for the prestige, but a trainer urging a supplement is something else as he is putting his judgement and his owner’s cash on the line.
These trials are run at shorter distances and on the whole probably 99.99% slower tempos than the main event. Nothing would give me greater joy if Humphrey Bogart won this for yard Hannon yet I cant see it happening.
The two I like the most at this moment in time and the clock is ticking are Deauville and Wings of Desire
Deauville is a standout 14/1 with William Hill and his trial was his first run of the season plus he is crying out for the step up in trip and will be running hard when a lot have cried ‘horsebox’.
Wings Of Desire is the rapid improving sort and has already won at the distance albeit at Wolverhampton at a plodders pace. He beat Deauville in the Dante but had already had the two seasonal runs behind him. If weighing up the likely extra improvement of both Deauville for the run against Wings of Desire the experience I find them hard to split so make Deauville the selection on price.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Question for all
How relevant would the sectional timings be for the Dante or any other trial for that matter? The trials are run at a lot slower pace and horses will have much more in their locker come 3, 2 or a furlong to go. Some respected observers are into their sectionals. WOD sectionals are quicker than golden horns (read that somewhere, I’ve not actually timed them). When I watched last years Dante back when GH stormed in Graham Cunningham just kept repeating “What’s the time?”.
Frankie doesn’t come across as positive as he might be on WOD. This is a concern. I (like most) just get get a solid angle on this race
I will stick my neck out here Wasp ……………
If Massaat gets the trip it wins!!!
If he doesn’t get the trip Moonlight Magic wins!!
This is just my opinion and not fact obviously but the best form shown by any entry is the form of the Guineas and the Derrinstoun Derby Trial in Ireland .
As I say just my opinion
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