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Breakfast with the Stars tomorrow. Unfortunately I will be at work but was up on the downs yesterday. Ground was pretty much good to firm
I think Maasaat is the forgotten horse actually Steve. If he stays he must run well. Like Midterm, Ulysses is priced on his trainer and his parents.
I put a fiver on at 20/1 and he’s cut across the boards into 16/1. The power of the Caution Skin Diver knows no limits 😉
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Moonlight Magic is my idea of the winner, trained by a master, won well LTO and form has been franked by Beacon Rock, by Cape Cross, should stay and like fast ground…just wish he wasn’t owned by Godolphin!
Aidan pretty much ruled The Gurkha out of the Derby today and into the St James Palace Stakes instead.
Air Force Blue was said to be heading for the Commonwealth Cup, where he is 10/1. That makes no appeal to me and I feel this will be the race where they finally admit that the horse just hasn’t trained on from 2 to 3 years old.
Harzand was said to need soft by connections and they also feel he’s a big horse who will not be suited to Epsom.
Beating Cook Islands doesn’t look like one to put in the CV as an achievement anyway. That horse looks as pacey as Boaty McBoatface.
Shogun was woeful in the Guineas and while Beacon Rock won the Gallinule today, it looked an awful field and the runner up was rated 88 coming into today’s race.
With Saafaar a well beaten favourite behind 84 rated The Major General in maiden company today, the overall picture of Moonlight Magic’s Derrinstown win is not that of an oil painting, more of a hastily sketched and out of focus watercolour that looks like it will get smudged a lot more by season’s end.
Wings Of Desire would seem the most likely winner if he can make any improvement from the Dante and I would respect Cloth Of Stars, who I had a few quid on at 25/1 after his last win.
Steve, I can’t help but think you are barking up he wrong tree when identifying Saafarr as the horse to hold down the Derrinstown form.
This is a horse who does not act on ground with cut in it, that’s clear from his record. We saw how well he could run once given a decent surface
The ground was soft on Sunday and lo and behold he runs poorly again.Steve, I can’t help but think you are barking up he wrong tree when identifying Saafarr as the horse to hold down the Derrinstown form.
This is a horse who does not act on ground with cut in it, that’s clear from his record. We saw how well he could run once given a decent surface
The ground was soft on Sunday and lo and behold he runs poorly again.Saafarr is just part of the problem. Even allowing for the ground, you shouldn’t be getting stuffed by horses rated 84.
Saafarr is rated 105 and in my opinion that is highly unlikely to be accurate, he’s a maiden . The trainer is running him on heavy ground pretty often for a horse who can’t go on it and that seems rather silly in my opinion.
Shogun is an old cuddy already, who has yet to add to his maiden win. Anyone believing Beacon Rock franked the form of the Derrinstown is going to be disappointed in my opinion. I thought the Gallinule was an awful renewal and in my opinion the form is nothing to get even remotely excited about.
Saafarr was rated 84 going into the Derrinstown and was then raised 21lb for finishing where he did. Lo and Behold he then gets beaten by a horse rated 84 next time. Which is more likely? That they raised him too much or he ran below his new mark by roughly what he was raised.
Saafarr was able to get to within 9l of The Gurkha on really soft ground. Bearing in mind that horse’s mark now, you would have felt Saafarr ran well enough on the surface for it to be a poor excuse now.
The truth will emerge. I have a bad feeling about the quality of the Derrinstown.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Breakfast with the Stars tomorrow. Unfortunately I will be at work but was up on the downs yesterday. Ground was pretty much good to firm
…..and since then we’ve had over 10 ml in the last 45 mins
This must be the most open derby I can remember. Actually I prefer it to one where it’s just dominated by one or two horses, it makes it much more exciting.
The hype will go into overdrive as the race approaches as it seems like the world and his wife thinks they have a chance of the blue riband.
Most uninspired I have been for a long time for this race, couldn’t have US Army Ranger with stolen money. WOD I would have as favourite for winning the Dante and the boy Johnny G has been bullish with recent quotes but just have a nagging doubt with him and at the prices I am happy to avoid.
Had to have a few coppers on Cloth Of Stars hoovered up some of the 14s just after his win over in France. Loved the way he responded under pressure and in the end was pushed out to win pretty handily. Won’t take a superstar to win this and Mr Fabre isn’t sending it over and supplementing it to have a look round the church of St Peter & St Paul. As I say this probably won’t take a lot of winning and at a double figure price I wouldn’t swap my pick at this stage.
Every year we are all underwhelmed by the Derby field. One horse then sometimes changes that – Australia 2000 Guineas, Golden Horn in the Dante but doubts still remain until the race itself. Remember last year with O’Brien horse after O’Brien horse running like a drain?
This year the field looks pretty similar to last year. The Gosden horse than won the Dante is being very positively spoken about and is improving massively run to run. US Army Ranger didn’t impress everyone at Chester but the form isn’t working out to badly, the colt is lightly raced and open to endless improvement and he has beaten a Group 2 winner. Cloth Of Stars has beaten a group one winner and looks an obvious contender similar to how Pour Moi was.
It is impossible to say how good the Derby will be at this stage.
I think Wings Of Desire is the most likely winner, Gosden / Dettori can you think of better men to have on your side? Cloth Of Stars and US Army Ranger are very real contenders. Anything else winning? I can’t see it at this stage.
Moonlight Magic is my idea of the winner, trained by a master, won well LTO and form has been franked by Beacon Rock, by Cape Cross, should stay and like fast ground…just wish he wasn’t owned by Godolphin!
I’m in full agreement Joliff, I think he looks solid and still overpriced at 12/1. I put him
up a while back on this thread, Darren was singing his praises well before that, and I’m
surprised you can still get 12/1, that’s the value in the race for me. His only loss was on
heavy ground at Leopardstown, he won’t encounter that ground at Epsom, his other 3 races he
won well. Unlike many here, there are no question marks against him. I hope we’re both smiling
come a week on Saturday
My main two bets are Moonlight Magic and Marsaat but I am nowhere near as confident as last year with GH !! Obviously
I have already mentioned Harzand as a possible so that will be in my exactas.
US Army Ranger is far too short for what he has achieved and Wings Of Desire looks a worthy favourite to me but it does look a very open race and I go there with hope rather than confidence which for the Derby is unlike me!!
Every year we are all underwhelmed by the Derby field. One horse then sometimes changes that – Australia 2000 Guineas, Golden Horn in the Dante but doubts still remain until the race itself. Remember last year with O’Brien horse after O’Brien horse running like a drain?
This year the field looks pretty similar to last year. The Gosden horse than won the Dante is being very positively spoken about and is improving massively run to run. US Army Ranger didn’t impress everyone at Chester but the form isn’t working out to badly, the colt is lightly raced and open to endless improvement and he has beaten a Group 2 winner. Cloth Of Stars has beaten a group one winner and looks an obvious contender similar to how Pour Moi was.
It is impossible to say how good the Derby will be at this stage.
I think Wings Of Desire is the most likely winner, Gosden / Dettori can you think of better men to have on your side? Cloth Of Stars and US Army Ranger are very real contenders. Anything else winning? I can’t see it at this stage.
I’m struggling to see the evidence of this to be honest.
I agree that Wings Of Desire is the colt to be with though. I feel he’s probably just about the best candidate already and he’s arguably got the most improvement to come from both experience and the step up. He’s readily preferred by me at the same odds as US Army Ranger and if I see a match bet I will be all over the Gosden horse. US Army Ranger could be more a Leger type in my opinion.
A couple of decent colts may yet emerge but there’s a load of old dross in that field, evinced by handicap winners on the verge of being supplemented and maiden winner’s sitting as low as 6/1 for a Classic.
For all that last year’s race looked exciting at the time, both Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs tasted defeat later in the season. This race is not as bad as the one Camelot won but there are serious limitations in class.
Last year’s Derby was different to this one because we all knew Golden Horn had the class to win it and the question mark was the stamina. I am slightly dubious that Wings Of Desire is only 4lbs lower than Golden Horn was at this stage last year but he probably won’t need to be, as long as he can find similar improvement to last year’s champ.
4/1 Wings Of Desire looks the bet of the season for me now and I make him 5/2 on my book.
I’ll be surprised if he can’t win this by a couple of lengths and I feel Cloth Of Stars may prove to have more speed than US Army Ranger and provide the biggest danger.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Every year we are all underwhelmed by the Derby field. One horse then sometimes changes that – Australia 2000 Guineas, Golden Horn in the Dante but doubts still remain until the race itself. Remember last year with O’Brien horse after O’Brien horse running like a drain?
This year the field looks pretty similar to last year. The Gosden horse than won the Dante is being very positively spoken about and is improving massively run to run. US Army Ranger didn’t impress everyone at Chester but the form isn’t working out to badly, the colt is lightly raced and open to endless improvement and he has beaten a Group 2 winner. Cloth Of Stars has beaten a group one winner and looks an obvious contender similar to how Pour Moi was.
It is impossible to say how good the Derby will be at this stage.
I think Wings Of Desire is the most likely winner, Gosden / Dettori can you think of better men to have on your side? Cloth Of Stars and US Army Ranger are very real contenders. Anything else winning? I can’t see it at this stage.
I’m struggling to see the evidence of this to be honest.
I agree that Wings Of Desire is the colt to be with though. I feel he’s probably just about the best candidate already and he’s arguably got the most improvement to come from both experience and the step up. He’s readily preferred by me at the same odds as US Army Ranger and if I see a match bet I will be all over the Gosden horse. US Army Ranger could be more a Leger type in my opinion.
A couple of decent colts may yet emerge but there’s a load of old dross in that field, evinced by handicap winners on the verge of being supplemented and maiden winner’s sitting as low as 6/1 for a Classic.
For all that last year’s race looked exciting at the time, both Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs tasted defeat later in the season. This race is not as bad as the one Camelot won but there are serious limitations in class.
Last year’s Derby was different to this one because we all knew Golden Horn had the class to win it and the question mark was the stamina. I am slightly dubious that Wings Of Desire is only 4lbs lower than Golden Horn was at this stage last year but he probably won’t need to be, as long as he can find similar improvement to last year’s champ.
4/1 Wings Of Desire looks the bet of the season for me now and I make him 5/2 on my book.
I’ll be surprised if he can’t win this by a couple of lengths and I feel Cloth Of Stars may prove to have more speed than US Army Ranger and provide the biggest danger.
Wings of desire was apparently not that impressive in his gallop today. Ok so was golden horn apparently last year before hosing up on the raceday itself, but it could potentially be a track issue.
I wouldn’t have him as a 5-2 shot. Yes he won the Dante but not by much and Golden Horn won his dante decisively and in general looked like a more imposing and impressive individual than Wings of desire. I take the comments of Gosden that he’s a “freak” as being quite interesting as he’s not normally that bullish about his horses but there’s just that doubt in my mind about the horse
There seems to be growing confidence behind cloth of stars. Looked impressive in his gallop today and I might do a cheeky godolphin double with this one and skiffle in the oaks
Surely the boys in blue are going to win the Derby one day?!
Looking at that Derrinstown race, I think if it was an extra two furlongs Idaho would have reeled in moonlight magic
he’s the one to take out of that race for me. Big raking stride so needs the step up to a mile and a half. Fast ground should be ideal. Also ran the final furlong of that race than anything in the guineas trial did half an hour earlier over a two furlongs shorter distance.
Don’t like US army ranger. just don’t think he’s that quick.
Wings of desire quick sectionals in the Dante but just have some doubts about him… can’t put my finger on it. Then again he’s got a bomb proof temperament which is a big weapon in his favour for derby day where you would assume that some horses will boil over
Idaho does get a bit sweaty in his races which wouldn’t be ideal. But I always think in the Derby you’re looking at horses that will improve for a step up to a mile and a half and he looks the ideal candidate on that score.
Checked back and must admit WOD didn’t look that impressive. Head carriage didn’t seem right. However we had 11ml on Monday evening which put the ground good/soft soft in places. JG said that this horse needs good/firm ground for him to be at his best.
This is the horse now to dig me out of my antepost hole on the Derby. Have backed COS at 14s and Maasaat at 20s. Wings of Desire is backed at 9/2 and if the ground is good/firm on the day I will go in again on the morning of the race.
Don’t think Massaat will get the trip. Wasn’t his dam a sprinter? Then again if you look at his running style he does tend to stay on a bit. Ten furlong horse for me.
I wouldn’t be so quick to write off Ulysses Steve. Yes He’s only won a maiden and I’m sure you’re right the form is rubbish but the derby is often won by an unexposed colt. Lamtarra anyone? Also I think that Leicester maiden where he just got beat looked a very hot race, the front two pulled miles clear.
I think the bullish noises that Stoute is sending out about this horse also speak volumes. Rather like Gosden he is rarely calling a geese a swan.
Also when you think about it, he has the sort of name that wins Derbys. Can you really see port douglas, or a humphrey bogart winning a derby?
I’ve got a theory this year that none of the traditional derby trials were any good. The 2000 guineas, the dante the lingfield trial, the derrinstown and the chester vase are the traditional starting points but this year I think every runner that came out of those races is vulnerable.
Certainly none of them threw up a visually impressive winner. I think we’ve got to look outside those races and that’s where horses like Ulysses come in.
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