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Hahaha! I DO remember Ectot Steve. But i also remember Frankel!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The worry about Moonlight Magic is how good the Derrinstown was.
The jockey bookings were all over the shop and Shogun performed the best of O’Brien’s entries.
For all that Shogun has bits and pieces of form, he’s been exposed as a fair bit short of class on several occasions. He has only ever won a maiden race, which, amazingly, hasn’t thrown up a winner in 42 attempts since. The horse has also had headgear on and off in his career and he’s hardly a solid yardstick.
Idaho didn’t get the best of rides in the Derristown and I have always felt that Beacon Rock lacks pace at this level and distance. Aidan hasn’t had a good looking colt other than The Gurkha so far, and, potentially US Army Ranger although he is more talk than substance for now.
Jim Bolger is a leading trainer but he’s hardly been a regular at Epsom in terms of Derby wins and generally has had it pretty lean the past couple of seasons.
I can see the appeal but also some negatives, with stamina not assured in my opinion.
Not many make much appeal and I will probably end up with something on Wings Of Desire. Cloth Of Stars is probably my only ante-post chance now that Foundation and Idaho are out of it and unlikely respectively.
The Gurkha is improving quickly and reminds me of Magician who dropped in trip successfully after initially looking more of a stayer. I would agree that his ability to win easily at a mile makes one question whether he’ll be as effective over another half mile at group 1 level.
A tricky Derby to call but Wings Of Desire could improve another 10lbs in my opinion and become rated between 123 and 125 if he wins this Derby. Those figures would seem enough this season.
You have a valid point with regard to the Derrinstown Derby Trial Steve, the standard might be
questionable, but you can only beat what’s there and he did that well enough.You mentioned that “Jim Bolger is a leading trainer but he’s hardly been a regular at Epsom in terms
of Derby wins and generally has had it pretty lean the past couple of seasons”. He’s had three entries
in the past 10 years. New Approach won it in 2008, Gan Amhras was 11th in 2009, and his last entry was
Dawn Approach in an extraordinary race in 2013. Dawn Approach, as you no doubt remember, was hot favourite
for the race. He was to be held up behind a strong pace (Bolger’s words before the race) but when he came
out the stalls there was a complete lack of pace and after 100 yards he lit up and Manning spent the next
few furlongs fighting with him, trying to hold him up but he simply couldn’t hold him. Eventually he let
him go charging through, hitting the front with more than half a mile to go. He folded and was swallowed
up by the field. It was mentioned after that that Bolger might have been better keeping his race tactics
to himself, and of course the O’brien stable, from some hacks, got it in the neck for slowing things down,
which they were perfectly entitled to do. Dawn Approach didn’t run beyond 8f again.So as far as Bolger’s record in the race, I think it’s not too bad with a 33% strike rate. O’Brien aside,
nobody else has won it more than once in that 10 year period.I’m not so worried, as you are, about stamina. I think his close relations to Galileo and Sea The
Stars, and also the fact, as earlier pointed out by TAPK, that he is a half brother to the Godolphin filly
Hidden Gold who is a proper 2m sort, gives every reason to think he will get the trip.I think he is a sound type for the race, but whether he is good enough, well we will only find that out on
the day.None other than John Gosden has said that he feels The Gurkha beat group 3 horses in the French 2000 Guineas.
I thought it was just me who was being cautious about the value of the form.
Going into that race there was little confidence behind any of the French horses, although, on the day, they did get stuck into Zarak, who failed to confirm seasonal debut form with George Patton, making the trainer’s comment that Zarak was only 85% fit on his debut rather dubious in retrospect.
I am surprised that The Gurkha is rated 122 by the Racing Post, with that figure putting him a full stone ahead of US Army Ranger on the same rating scale.
That very much makes it look like it would be as certain as Christmas that Ryan Moore would be on The Gurkha if he does line up at Epsom.
122 looks excessive in my opinion and I wonder what the betting would be if The Gurkha lined up on 10st and US Army Ranger carrying 9st?
Wings Of Desire is due at Breakfast With The Stars at Epsom and Andre Fabre is bringing Cloth Of Stars over for the same event. Surely this means that the French horse may be bound for the Derby. In the circumstances I felt he would run and decided to take the 25/1 available at the time of his trial win in France.
Midterm was found to have lameness caused by a minor injury in the Dante and it is now a question of having him ready in time for the Derby. I couldn’t back him in that scenario.
The Cocked Hat is run at Goodwood on Friday and there is a disappointing 4 runner field for that one.
We get a chance to see Algometer again and how he performs after being runner up to Midterm last time.
Early odds sees Algometer and Godolphin’s First Victory as 11/8 joint favourites.
Storm The Stars won this last year before finishing third in the Derby but I am not sure about this renewal.
First Victory was beaten in a handicap last time and that’s not usually a good sign for the Classics. Ormito from Andrew Balding’s stable give us an insight into the Chester Vase form, with the 97 rated colt beaten 7l behind US Army Ranger that day. It should give some sort of ball park guide at least to the O’Brien colt. Other than David Simcock’s Algometer there is J J Quinn’s Speed Company with Ryan Moore on board. Speed Company is also rated 97 and he was 4th to Hawkbill in Listed company at Newmarket last time, where he was outpaced before staying on for a never nearer 4th. The extra furlong on Friday might help but this Gelding cannot run in the Derby and doesn’t look nearly good enough on all known form thus far in any case.
An interesting Cocked Hat but probably more with regards to other candidates for the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
First class piece of analysis there Steve. I think it maybe goes to show that this is
the most open Derby I can think of. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t think 3/1 or 4/1 is value
for those at the head of the market and I think a shock winner could be on the cards. Albeit a
different classic, I put up Night Of Thunder for the 2000 Guineas 2 years back, and he obliged
at 40/1, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar shock here. I’m sticking with MOONLIGHT
MAGIC at this time, but I’m likely to have a speculative punt on a would be no-hoper in the
coming weeks.Well interesting Stevie that you go from saying before the race that Zelzal might well be Europe’s best 3 year old colt to now saying that there was no confidence and they were only Group 3 horses. There was plenty of good form going into that race. I respect your opinion and of course that of JG but I am happy to trust my eyes – that was an impressive performance regardless of who was in behind. Sam Walker and Mike Cattermole wrote good pieces about it today and both agree it is the standout form so far this year. Let’s wait and see. BTW – what rating would you give a 5 1/2 length winner of a Group 1? In my opinion 122 is the bare minimum for this horse.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think you are getting First Victory mixed up with Prize Money Steve. First Victory is a filly!
None other than John Gosden has said that he feels The Gurkha beat group 3 horses in the French 2000 Guineas.
I thought it was just me who was being cautious about the value of the form.
Going into that race there was little confidence behind any of the French horses, although, on the day, they did get stuck into Zarak, who failed to confirm seasonal debut form with George Patton, making the trainer’s comment that Zarak was only 85% fit on his debut rather dubious in retrospect.
I am surprised that The Gurkha is rated 122 by the Racing Post, with that figure putting him a full stone ahead of US Army Ranger on the same rating scale.
That very much makes it look like it would be as certain as Christmas that Ryan Moore would be on The Gurkha if he does line up at Epsom.
122 looks excessive in my opinion and I wonder what the betting would be if The Gurkha lined up on 10st and US Army Ranger carrying 9st?
Wings Of Desire is due at Breakfast With The Stars at Epsom and Andre Fabre is bringing Cloth Of Stars over for the same event. Surely this means that the French horse may be bound for the Derby. In the circumstances I felt he would run and decided to take the 25/1 available at the time of his trial win in France.
Midterm was found to have lameness caused by a minor injury in the Dante and it is now a question of having him ready in time for the Derby. I couldn’t back him in that scenario.
The Cocked Hat is run at Goodwood on Friday and there is a disappointing 4 runner field for that one.
We get a chance to see Algometer again and how he performs after being runner up to Midterm last time.
Early odds sees Algometer and Godolphin’s First Victory as 11/8 joint favourites.
Storm The Stars won this last year before finishing third in the Derby but I am not sure about this renewal.
First Victory was beaten in a handicap last time and that’s not usually a good sign for the Classics. Ormito from Andrew Balding’s stable give us an insight into the Chester Vase form, with the 97 rated colt beaten 7l behind US Army Ranger that day. It should give some sort of ball park guide at least to the O’Brien colt. Other than David Simcock’s Algometer there is J J Quinn’s Speed Company with Ryan Moore on board. Speed Company is also rated 97 and he was 4th to Hawkbill in Listed company at Newmarket last time, where he was outpaced before staying on for a never nearer 4th. The extra furlong on Friday might help but this Gelding cannot run in the Derby and doesn’t look nearly good enough on all known form thus far in any case.
An interesting Cocked Hat but probably more with regards to other candidates for the Derby.
Steve,
Those The Gurkha beat in the French Guineas (First Selection etc) produced probably no more than genuine Group 3 performances. However, The Gurkha did not just beat his rivals, he wasn’t all out to beat them by 5 1/2 lengths. Plenty of room between the winner and second to fit genuine Group 2 and Group 1 horses. Distance one horse beats another and ease of victory needs to be taken in to account in the race winning performance rating. I have very little doubt The Gurkha is a genuine Group 1 horse. 122 is not that high for a 5 1/2 lengths winner of a Group 1 and seems to me the Racing Post has already allowed for the opposition being below standard and have been cautious with his rating.On the other hand: In the Chester Vase – on form – US Army Ranger doesn’t even come out the best horse at the weights. Short head runner-up Port Douglas gave 4 lbs. Not only that… the stable companion in all probability would have won the race given as vigourous a ride as the winner got in the final 50 yards.
Using all form currently available, US Army Ranger did not put up anything like a performance of Group 1 standard and form is what ratings are judged on – not home work. It is obvious connections have seen a different side of US Army Ranger at home.
Given the high esteem connections hold him in, there is a strong probability US Army Ranger is not “a stone” worse horse than The Gurkha.
May be the best way of looking at the ratings is:
Racing Post believes The Gurkha’s current form is a stone better than US Army Ranger’s current form.
NOT:
Racing Post believes The Gurkha is a stone better horse than US Army Ranger.It is up to every punter how much notice they take of Team Coolmore’s whisperings.
PS. If they do both turn up, Ryan Moore will need to also take in to account potential stamina limitations, so his choice wouldn’t be as much of a gimme that ratings make out.
Value Is EverythingTop post Ginge. It’ll all come out in the wash….
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I think you are getting First Victory mixed up with Prize Money Steve. First Victory is a filly!
You are correct I had First Victory on the brain from the discussion about Swiss Range on the Oaks thread.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well interesting Stevie that you go from saying before the race that Zelzal might well be Europe’s best 3 year old colt to now saying that there was no confidence and they were only Group 3 horses. There was plenty of good form going into that race. I respect your opinion and of course that of JG but I am happy to trust my eyes – that was an impressive performance regardless of who was in behind. Sam Walker and Mike Cattermole wrote good pieces about it today and both agree it is the standout form so far this year. Let’s wait and see. BTW – what rating would you give a 5 1/2 length winner of a Group 1? In my opinion 122 is the bare minimum for this horse.
I can’t see your point here Joni.
Zelzal was a highly promising colt going into the race, he had any amount of potential.
We watched the race and we saw that he was disappointing. In hindsight we know that he’s not Europe’s top 3yo colt. So what is your point?
That is racing all over, we have opinions before the race and we use the evidence after the race to re-assess our position. Unless you are trying to rub it in that your horse beat my selection then I see no point in your statement whatsoever.
As for Mile Cattermole and Sam Walker, they are just pundits with an opinion. John Gosden had a horse in the race and he knows more about how that relates to the rest of the field than the other two who are offering an opinion. We are each free to choose whose opinion we trust more.
My initial thought was that The Gurkha probably had put up the performance of the season but after reflecting on it, which I feel is the wise thing to do, I had my doubts about the race strength.
I see that my old sparring partner has butted in to tell me that I can’t read form yet again. I suppose it had to happen.
Life is too short for this having to defend your feelings on the merits of a race. I have said what I feel and where I am coming from on it.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Incidentally Joni, I feel The Gurkha’s Derby participation may well hinge on how Air Force Blue performs in the Irish 2000 Guineas.
Another poor show will surely mean the horse hasn’t trained on. O’Brien feels he over-trained him for Newmarket and has made adjustments since. However another flop would probably see him written off as a St James’ Palace Stakes horse and The Gurkha may well step in to replace him there. With stamina a doubt for some people, it might be a logical step for The Gurkha. As I have said, the horse reminds me of Magician, who turned out faster than expected.
Good luck with him wherever he goes, he was a great early spot for you and I fully acknowledge that you have a good eye for talent.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The point I was making Steve was that nobody seemed to be saying BEFORE the race that it was full of Group 3 animals. On the contrary it looked a good race. You had plenty of Group winners in the field, several who had gone close in the very few Group 1 races that had taken place up till then plus a couple at the head of the market who were unbeaten and highly regarded by respected trainers. In other words a nice mixture of proven ability and promise. The Gurkha thrashes them all and suddenly it’s “oh they can’t have been any good.” – for me that’s too easy to say and can’t be proved now anyway. John Gosden obviously has a strong opinion on his own horse and was clearly tilting at windmills if he was running a Group 3 horse in a Group 1 race, but I am not sure why his opinion on others in the field should be more valid than anyone else. You are absolutely right that we can pick and choose whichever opinion we like which is why spotting something that not many others can makes us money – as you do very successfully yourself – if we all agreed on a horse we wouldn’t get very good odds would we? It just seemed to me that JG’s words fitted nicely into your original contention that TG was not up to that much and that he is not worth a 122 rating but plenty of other people have said plenty of other (more positive) things and they are valid and knowledgeable pundits.
Of course it could turn out that those in behind were not particularly good but, like in Frankel’s Guineas for example, does it matter when a horse wins the way TG did? It is hard to argue that it was not a quality performance from a quality horse having just his third run.
I completely agree with your point about Air Force Blue and his performance having a bearing on where they send TG. I also think that what they do with TG might have a bearing on some of the other Ballydoyle Epsom hopes. For example would TG and US Army Ranger require the same tactics to maximise their chances at Epsom? USAR definitely gets a mile and a half and would probably benefit from a stamina test. TG might be better out-sprinting them off a slower gallop. Would they therefore run both? Interesting stuff. My gut feel is that they will want to run TG as he has shown that star quality and this would be his only chance at winning one of the classics that really count for breeding purposes.
Thanks for the compliment and lets see how it all unfolds!!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
The lads will really have a difficult decision to make should air force blue win at the weekend. To have a galileo with that speed is potentially worth many millions at stud but will coolmores desire to win the derby overrule that. It’s one of the trickiest decisions they have had to make. As Jamie lynch or Phil Smith would say that was a wow moment and surely it’s better to dream of him being the next superstar horse but be realistic. If the ghurka truly stays the derby distance his price will look an absolute snip if he wins. It was just a superb performance from a horse having his 3Rd race in his life.
I can’t see your point here Joni.
Zelzal was a highly promising colt going into the race, he had any amount of potential.
We watched the race and we saw that he was disappointing. In hindsight we know that he’s not Europe’s top 3yo colt. So what is your point?
That is racing all over, we have opinions before the race and we use the evidence after the race to re-assess our position. Unless you are trying to rub it in that your horse beat my selection then I see no point in your statement whatsoever.
As for Mile Cattermole and Sam Walker, they are just pundits with an opinion. John Gosden had a horse in the race and he knows more about how that relates to the rest of the field than the other two who are offering an opinion. We are each free to choose whose opinion we trust more.
My initial thought was that The Gurkha probably had put up the performance of the season but after reflecting on it, which I feel is the wise thing to do, I had my doubts about the race strength.
I see that my old sparring partner has butted in to tell me that I can’t read form yet again. I suppose it had to happen.
Life is too short for this having to defend your feelings on the merits of a race. I have said what I feel and where I am coming from on it.
My post was just about The Gurkha’s form and how his rating compares to US Army Ranger, nothing else Steve.
You disagree with Joni’s interpretation of The Gurkha’s form, are you saying Joni “can’t read form”? NO.
Am I not allowed to “but in” and give my opinion on a discussion forum?
How is me disagreeing with just part of your interpretation of The Gurkha’s form me telling you that you “can’t read form”?…
In fact I’ve agreed with you about the placed French Guineas horses being only of genuine Group 3 standard.
All I’ve done is explain my opinion, that the margin of victory (5 1/2 lengths) means The Gurkha is imo probably a genuine Group 1 performer – despite beating just Group 3 animals.
Does the margin of victory mean anything to you Steve? If a horse is not all out to beat Group 3 animals by 5 1/2 lengths… why is he not a genuine Group 1 performer?
I’ve also explained why a straight comparisson using Racing Post Ratings between US Army Ranger and The Gurkha in my opinion gives a false reading of what the Racing Post are saying. ie With US Army Ranger’s home reputation it is very probable he’s better than the Racing Post are currently able to rate him on racecourse “form”.
I always explain my opinion and in doing so explains why I believe the other person is wrong about the particular issue in hand. If we all worked races out the same we’d all be backing the same horses, good job we don’t! 😆
You do not need to “defend your feelings on the merits of a race”, if not wishing to continue the debate. You’ve given your opinion, just as I’ve given mine.
It’s just a discussion, am sure we could get on really well here – I regard you as generally a good judge of the horses Steve. Please don’t make more of a simple difference of opinion than there actually is.
Value Is EverythingIncidentally Joni, I feel The Gurkha’s Derby participation may well hinge on how Air Force Blue performs in the Irish 2000 Guineas.
Another poor show will surely mean the horse hasn’t trained on. O’Brien feels he over-trained him for Newmarket and has made adjustments since. However another flop would probably see him written off as a St James’ Palace Stakes horse and The Gurkha may well step in to replace him there. With stamina a doubt for some people, it might be a logical step for The Gurkha. As I have said, the horse reminds me of Magician, who turned out faster than expected.
Good luck with him wherever he goes, he was a great early spot for you and I fully acknowledge that you have a good eye for talent.
Totally agree Steve, what Coolmore send to the Derby will depend on what Air Force Blue does in the Irish 2000.
If they think AFB is a St James’s Palace horse, then why not throw The Gurkha in to Epsom even with stamina doubts! Especially with no outstanding Coolmore candidate for the Blue Riband.
If AFB disappoints in Ireland then TG will be the obvious replacement and let USAR and Deaville plus a block entry represent them at Epsom.
If AFB wins the Irish 2000 then he’ll end up at Royal Ascot. If team Coolmore truly believe USAR is a top class colt then may be they’ll go for the French Derby (over shorter) with TG. IMO TG has serious stamina doubts for Epsom. But also, I believe Coolmore are hyping up USAR and when they look at the form book will want another Epsom option.
Don’t know if another defeat proves AFB hasn’t trained on exactly (although it is possible as he’s another War Front ;-)). Do you think it may be more a physical/breathing/temperament issue? With such an exceptional two year old career – what possible reason was there for running Air Force Blue in a tongue strap in the English Guineas unless not showing the same sparkle on the gallops?
Value Is EverythingI think it’s more likely to be a tempremant issue with afb as he hammered air vice Marshall in a gallop before the guineas. AOB has a history of bringing back horses who run poorly at Newmarket and then win at the curragh. He will either blow the field away or finish out with the washing. Handy to have the ghurka in reserve if necessary to run in the top 8 and 10f races. I’m trying to remember a classic winner who won as easily apart from you know who. Zafonic is the only one I can think of. I’m sure right now most owners would like to have the ghurka.
I tend to believe it is much easier to get carried away with wide margin winners as being superstars.
The large tidal wave here is that The Gurkha is the business. He may well be of course but just as we can’t decry the French 2000 Guineas also rans as total tosh yet, nor can we say with certainty that The Gurkha is the new King of racing.
In my experience, horses who win in the style of The Gurkha usually get over-backed next time out and represent poor value.
That is more or less my cautionary note here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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