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Most of you know me as a trends guy, but I’m really interested in the breeding side of things and I’ll be analysing the pedigrees of all the qualifiers of my Derby trends for 2012. This’ll be a fairly slow process but I’ll try and get through about 5 a day which means it’ll take roughly a month.
I’ve done a few already, and the first that really stands out is an incredibly well-bred Henry Cecil colt, currently unnamed, foaled on February 22nd. He’s a Dansili-All My Loving (Sadler’s Wells). The Dansili-Sadler’s Wells nick has proved extremely successful and Cecil’s had an unbelievable time with them; Father Time and Passage of Time were both Pattern class, while he’s stated that All Time could be his best filly this year (9th on debut) and Hairstyle ran an eye-catching race last week in a maiden finishing 2nd by a short-head.
All My Loving comes from an incredible family. Her dam Jude also foaled Yesterday and Quarter Moon. Dansili’s sired a wide range of horses, ranging from last week’s Group 2 Duke of York winner Delegator to last season’s 11 length King George victor Harbinger.
Jude herself is by Darshaan, a French Derby winner, out of a Crystal Palace mare. One of her 2 full-sisters, Arrikala, finished 3rd in the Irish Oaks and won a Listed contest over 14f. The other, Alouette, was competitive over 12f as a 3yo and had her final start over 13f.
All My Loving was readily outpaced in the Ribblesdale before staying on and then ran in the Park Hill over the Leger trip and 2 of her full-brothers are essentially stayers, Magicalmysterytour and Hold Me Love Me.
Yesterday was probably the unluckiest horse in training ever, suffering interference which almost undoubtedly cost her victory in the Oaks, while Quarter Moon finished 2nd in both the English & Irish Oaks.
So there’s an awful lot of stamina on the conduit side. I’m really hoping that Dansili impacts speed rather than stamina, because as attractive as the pedigree is, there’s a very real danger that he could end up a bit of a slowboat.
Aidan O’Brien has a January 29th foal by Galileo out of the unraced mare A Footstep Away. The colt was purchased for €52,000. Her dam, At The Half, also foaled Lu Ravi, a runner-up on dirt over 9f in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom Handicap and won the Delaware Handicap over a furlong further. At The Half won the Golden Rod Stakes as a 2yo over 8 1/2f on dirt.
The damsire’s Giant’s Causeway who has a stamina index of 9.6, and Galileo’s short but intense career as a stallion has shown that he’s only effective as a stallion of 8-12f runners when crossed with speedy dams.
If you look through Galileo’s best progeny, the 14f+ horses are those with stamina on the distaff side.
Sans Frontieres, out of a Shirley Heights mare, stamina index 12.3.
Soldier of Fortune, Erins Isle mare, S.I 10.4.
Red Rocks, Machiavellian mare, S.I 9.2.
Sixties Icon, Diesis mare, S.I 9.6.
Age of Aquarius, Top Ville mare, S.I 11.2.
Kite Wood, Mark of Esteem mare, S.I 8.6.
Midas Touch & Alandi, Darshaan mares, S.I 11.7.
Purple Moon, Alysheba mare, S.I 11.3.
Mahler, Rainbow Quest mare, S.I 11.2.
At First Sight, Bering mare, S.I 10.2.Kite Wood to be fair I think is being campaigned over the wrong trip, but the others all have a damsire stamina index of at least 9.2.
Compared to the faster of Galileo’s progeny.
Frankel, Cima de Triomphe, Golden Lilac & Teofilo, Danehill mares, S.I 9.1.
New Approach, Ahonoora mare, S.I 8.0.
Rip Van Winkle, Stravinsky mare, S.I 7.4.
Cape Blanco, Presidium mare, S.I 9.3.
Lush Lashes, Anabaa mare, S.I 8.1.
Lily of the Valley, Pennekamp mare, S.I 8.1.2 12f Group 1 victors in there, Lush Lashes & New Approach, yet both also had the speed to be competitive (and even win) over 8f in Group 1 company. And a maximum damsire stamina index of 9.3.
The Galileo-Giant’s Causeway has been tested twice already and proved ineffective, but 2 horses each having 1 run between them – both were unplaced, 8th of 12 and 9th of 9. Both runs came on the all-weather.
Therefore the Galileo-A Footstep Away colt is not one I’m interested in.
Sir Michael Stoute has a Galileo-Adoration February 19th colt.
Adoration was a Grade 1 winner twice over 9f on dirt, in the BC Distaff and Santa Margarita Invitational. She’s by Honor Grades, a now-deceased stallion and half-brother to AP Indy. He was by Danzig and thrice placed in Grade 3 company. Honor Grades stamina index is 10.6, and as I outlined in the previous post, Galileo crossed with ‘stayers’ is not a good mix if you want a speedy 10-12f runner.
Adoration is one of two RPR100+ rated runners to come from her dam so there’s clearly a lot of quality on that side of the pedigree, although the Galileo-Honor Grades nick is totally untested.
However, that’s not to say it’s a nick that won’t work. The Galileo-Danehill cross has been hugely successful, and a cross with another of Danzig’s sons, Anabaa, worked superbly the sole time it’s been used when it produced Lush Lashes. Crosses with Polish Precedent and Green Desert have produced very moderate runners, while Bertolini and Mull of Kintyre mares haven’t even been tested.
There’s a fair chance that this colt could be good, but several of the original entries for the 2011 Derby were out of Group/Grade 1 winning or placed mares crossed with Galileo, and the majority have been abysmal.
With Galileo being a sire who operates on a 5% stakers performers to foals ratio, he’s certainly not a sire whose progeny I’d want to take a gamble on until I’ve seen some racecourse evidence.
John Oxx has a March 17th foal by Nayef out of Alasha, a Barathea mare. Alasha was twice-placed in Group 1 company, the first time in the 1000 Guineas behind Kazzia, and the second time in Canada in the EP Taylor Stakes over 10f in which she finished 2nd.
She was the only good horse to be produced from her dam, Alasana (unraced), with the 10 remaining runners all failing to achieve blacktype or a RPR of 100+. She was the 3rd foal of the 11 and had no full-siblings.
Alasha has produced 4 previous runners, all of whom have also failed to reach a RPR of 100 or blacktype status.
Nayef has had a relatively quiet career at stud, producing very few top class runners considering the class he possessed. 4 of his 7 best progeny on RPRs have been campaigned almost solely over 7-9f, but Top Lock and Lady Marian both stayed slightly further while Nehaam ran over 2 miles.
The Nayef-Barathea nick has been completely ineffective, yielding just 1 win from 21 attempts with 2 horses. Neither dam of those 2 runners performed well on the racecourse, although one did produce Hatta Fort after going to the breeding shed.
This colt is of no interest to me.
Sir Robert Ogden owns a March 17th Galileo-Alta Anna colt, whose trainer is currently ‘Unknown’. He was purchased in August last year for €420,000 and was the joint-most expensive Galileo colt at the Arqana Deauville Sales.
Alta Anna is an unraced fillie out of Anna Edes, placed once as a 3yo and also the dam of Abbatiale, 1st in the G3 Prix Penelope, and Aubergade, 2nd in the G3 Prix Penelope. A decent amount of quality there.
Alta Anna is also by Anabaa, whose horses have been bred once before with Galileo – the result was Lush Lashes.
Lush Lashes was a non-stayer of 12f in the Epsom Oaks but was victorious over the trip in the Yorkshire Oaks in a single-figure field. Her distaff side had far less stamina than Alta Anna’s, so the 12f of the Derby wouldn’t worry me.
The colt is of moderate interest to me, dependent on which trainer he’s assigned to.
Aidan O’Brien has a very early foal, January 16th, by Galileo and out of the Group 1 winner Ask for the Moon. 5 of the 6 immediate parents were Group 1 winners. He was purchased by Demi O’Byrne for 400,000GNS at the Tattersalls December Foals 2009 Sales. He was one of just 2 purchases for O’Byrne, the other being another Galileo colt, priced at 230,000GNS. He was the most expensive horse purchased at the Sales, 80,000GNS more than the next.
Ask for the Moon’s dam, Lune Rouge, produced a further runner who won a race as a 3yo. Ask for the Moon won the G1 Prix Saint Alary over 10f as well as the G3 Prix Penelope. She’s a Dr Fong colt, who won the St. James’ Palace Stakes.
The Galileo-Dr Fong nick has been as of yet untested, but his stamina index is 9.5 which is a little more than I’d really want. He’s by Kris S, sire of Kris Kin. He ran over less than 8f only once and was campaigned mainly over further than a mile.
He is a colt of moderate interest.
John Hammond has been given a son of Montjeu to look after by Mrs Robert G Ehrnrooth. A colt out of Bayourida (Slew O’Gold), foaled on February 19th. She’s a superb source of quality, having had all 3 of her runners achieve blacktype. Her best runner was actually who I thought at a very early stage in the season would win the Arc Sea The Stars went on to win, Telluride.
Bayourida is 1 of 4 blacktype runners to come from 9 horses out of Bellarida, the best being In Clover. In Clover was shy of top class, winning the Group 3 Prix de Flore. Bellarida won the Prix Saint Alary during her racing career, which at the time was under a different name and also a Group 3.
The horse was withdrawn from a Sales catalogue in October and sold 4 days ago for €120,000, bought by Stephen Hillen.
The Montjeu-Slew O’Gold nick has never been tried before.
The colt is of moderate interest.
Another lovely Galileo-Danehill mix here, Galileo-Beauty Bright. January 19th foal, trained by Aidan. Both horses were trained by him too. The dam was a Group 3 winner and was victorious over 6f in a G3. She’s already given birth to a full-sister and she’s run 5 times and been unplaced on every occasion, not achieving a RPR higher than 65. The horse was bred by the owner of Beauty Bright and hasn’t been through the Sales ring.
Beauty Bright’s dam was Dietrich, mother to 2 other RPR100+ competitors. She’s been bred to Galileo once, producing Eskimo, RPR99 and 4th to Frankel in the Royal Lodge and 8th in the Chesham Stakes.
The colt is of moderate interest.
Right, last one before bed. Another Dansili-Sadler’s Wells cross which makes it worth staying up for. Briolette’s the dam in question, 2nd to Ouija Board in the Group 3 John Royal Stakes. The foal’s a February 12th colt and trained by Aidan.
Briolette’s still a young horse so she’s only foaled two horses so far – the progressive handicapper Point North who’s likely to go very well in the Hunt Cup and a RPR of 100+ beckons, and Haymana, an unraced 3yo filly. Both of Briolette’s foals changed hands for big money, Point North for 500,000GNS to Robert Ogden, and Haymana to Shadwell for 650,000GNS.
Briolette’s out of Cocolette (Troy), the same dam as Pilsudski and 5 other blacktype/RPR100+ performers. Just 3 other runners who didn’t perform. She was bred with Danehill, sire of Dansili, twice with good results both times – Fine Motion, who won over £1.3m while picking up the G1 Shuka Sho and G1 QE2 prizes in Japan over 10 and 11f respectively. The other is Baraka, winner of the Lingfield Oaks Trial 7 years ago.
If I have a concern, it’s that she’s bred by Barronstown Stud, the breeder responsible for Yeats and Septimus, ie. stayers. Silly I know, had Yeats remained sound he’d be in our minds as a Derby winner and not a 4-time Ascot Gold Cup winner, but that’s just how it is.
This colt is otherwise of extremely high interest to me.
Ok, just one more…
A Galileo-Danehill now! Another Aidan colt, February 21st. Bywayofthestars the dam, who was actually appalling. Debuted in a Listed contest over a mile and finished 2nd. 4 subsequent runs and did absolutely nothing. Total rubbish. However…
Out of Solo De Lune, dam of L’Ancresse, Moonstone and Cerulean Sky. Those crosses were with Darshaan and Dalakhani, a completely different bloodline to Danehill. All 3 are fillies/mares and the 2 colts produced weren’t great by any stretch. One of them’s now hurdling, Moon Indigo, while Qaatef achieved blacktype in the Lonsdale Cup over 2-miles.
Bywayofthestars has already foaled one runner, a Montjeu colt called Dance at Dawn, who’s had 4 starts and proven to be rubbish. He won a maiden at Dundalk on his 4th attempt.
The currently unnamed colt was withdrawn from the Sales in November and is of limited interest to me.
I skipped one by accident, but no bother, this one’s not good. A Dansili-Sadler’s Wells cross, promising, but the dam, Bunood, is not from a good family. She was a moderate racehorse, finishing 3rd in the G3 John Royal 12f at Newmarket, but she was one of 8 runners for the dam, Azdihaar, and the only one to achieve blacktype. There’s quality stemming from her dam, but to American and Canadian bloodlines.
Bunood has also produced one runner already, to Green Desert, and she’s had 6 runs, been placed 3 times and achieved a RPR of 76.
This colt’s a January 19th foal in-training to John Dunlop and is of no interest to me.
Only doing 3 tonight because I’m unbelievably tired.
The first is a very well but stoutly bred son of Galileo, foaled on April 10th and in-training with Aidan. Out of Cassydora, the Lingfield Oaks Trial winner and Nassau runner-up. She’s had just the 1 runner so far, and she finished 14th of 15 on her single racecourse appearance in a maiden.
Cassydora’s an offspring of Darshaan, and the Galileo-Darshaan nick has offered nothing but slow-boats and I’m inclined to think the same’s going to happen again, particularly as that breeder’s popped up again, Barronstown Stud, breeder of Yeats and Septimus.
Acapulco, Alandi, Midas Touch, Perfect Truth, Broken Moon, Calzaghe. Just nothing but slow horses have come from this cross. Not quite sure how Gan Amhras managed to get 3rd in the Guineas but he’d have made a killer hurdler.
Cassydora herself is fairly well bred. She’s the best of her dam’s 7 runners, with just 2 others achieving blacktype and only one reaching a RPR of 100+. One was victorious in a Listed contest on her 4th attempt to win a race and the other managed just a place in a Listed race. Interestingly of the 7 runners, all were fillies.
I have absolutely no interest in this colt whatsoever.
A Hurricane Run-Chronicle (Observatory) March 19th colt next. Trainer currently unknown, likely to be either Haggas or Gosden since W J Gredley owns and has just 4 horses currently in training, split between those 2. He owned User Friendly so he’s no stranger to Classic success. He was purchased for 50,000GNS.
Chronicle is an unraced mare out of Quota, a maiden winner from 3 racecourse appearances for Henry Cecil. Twice tested in pattern company, she was placed in the Swettenham Fillies’ Oaks Trial and then unplaced in the Yorkshire Oaks. She’s out of Armeria, a daughter of Northern Dancer whose responsible for 3 other blacktype performers, the best being Armiger I, winner of the G1 RP Trophy and G3 Chester Vase and runner-up in the G1 Prix Lupin.
Quota as a broodmare has been disappointing, yielding 2 blacktype performers from 5 runners, but both weren’t great on the racecourse, achieving RPRs of just 105.
The Hurricane Run-Observatory cross is untested as of yet, as is the Montjeu-Observatory cross and believe it or not, even the Sadler’s Wells-Observatory cross.
This colt is of moderate interest to me.
The last one for tonight’s by another new sire; a Sir Percy-Codename cross, foaled on January 24th. Codename was unraced, but her dam, Orford Ness, won the G3 Prix Sandringham and has been hugely successful in the barn, yielding 4 high class blacktype performers from 7. Main Aim, Home Affairs, Verdant & Weightless the 4, all by different stallions, all on totally different bloodlines to Sir Percy.
Mark of Esteem, Sir Percy’s sire, has had very moderate success when crossed with Sadler’s Wells, yielding a 11% win rate, but for just a total of £180,000 in prize money. Not great. Crossing Darshaan (Mark of Esteem’s sire) to Sadler’s Wells however proved much more lucrative, producing Stakers performers such as Hard Top, Sayedah, City Honours and Tholjanah.
This colt is of decent interest to me.
Hello Zarkava,
I’m fairly new to this forum and reading your pedigree analyses with interest. For personal reasons I would like your view on Jupiter Storm (Galileo – Exciting Times).
Everyone’s talking about this horse and I cannot for the life of me understand it for 3 reasons.
a) He’s gone to Gary Moore
b) He’s gone to Gary Moore
c) He’s gone to Gary MooreBeautifully bred, but he’s gone to Gary Moore. 12f I think would be out of his reach.
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