- This topic has 530 replies, 83 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Speaking of the Epsom Derby…i cant fathom how Seville is shorter than Recital and Roderic O Conner. Horses like Voodoo Prince should be 1000/1.
The race is simple enough for me
Roderic O Conner
Recital
Frankel
Carlton House
Dubai Prince
Sea Moon
Pour MoiIf the winner does not come from those 7 i give up.
If you want horses to follow look at the Seikh mohammad silk runners that are their in abundance but nobody knows who trains them.
The quality of the Aidan O Brien runners outside the ones named above is fairly desperate…they wont have their usual 10+ trial runners. They have at best 3 proper horses and as Vincent O Brien always said if you have 3 Derby Horses you have none.
- Total Posts 17716
Hala Bek was a stumble away from winning the Derby without a 2yo run.
There is always exceptions to the rule, 2006 was a pretty substandard Derby.
I agree on both counts, surely exceptions are the reason not to use rules so strictly? I knew about the trend, but backed Hala Bek regardless as it looked a poor year before the race. It didn’t pay, but it wasn’t far off.
I went through a stage of backing horses who had won lto over a miniumum of 10f in The Derby. The Stat worked like clockwork for about a decade (Nin on the trot from Benny The Dip to Motivator) and then Sir Percy, New Approach, Sea The Stars & Workforce well and truly kicked it in to touch.
I have learnt to be more flexible concerning statistics.
Good afternoon all,
New postee but i will be a regular posting most days. My speciality being Epsom and Cheltenham. I go to the oaks and Derby every year and have not missed one for 25 years or so.
Currently i have 2 ante post horses on my side:
Carlton House currently carries the majority of my money at prices ranging from 20s down to 12s.
My 2nd selection is an unraced one from the genius that is Mr (Sir to be) Henry Cecil, World Domination is very well bred and apparently has been working very well at home.
My personal opinion is that Frankel will not even run in the derby so there is bags of value to be had at the moment.
If Carlton House goes for the Dante that will make me even more convinced that he is the Sir Michael/Moore selection for yet another derby victory.
GDC the sheer modesty of your approach overwhelms me.Since nothing is for free I patiently await the bottom line to the craven humility with which you introduced yourself.
Andy: I am lost mate? Manners costeth nowt as they say up here
I do not see how ‘Good afternoon all’ could possibly cause offence? If so then obviously i apologise my good man
GDC,Of course I am not offended. Taken aback might better describe my reaction to "Good afternoon all" I suppose i live in another time zone which is hardly acknowledged by the Good afternoon expression.Then on first posting to recognise your own specialty on a site where everyone is a specialist without perhaps lying low for a while to size up the lie of the land so to speak seemed to yours truly like a little bluster as they say. But all that aside welcome and enjoy.I don’t have a specialty except to gripe at things so you were probably right to suspect a lack of manners on my part!Gripers tend to be gruff and uncouth sometimes.I will be following ballydoyle as I have for forty plus years at least so your specialty on the Derby will be enjoyed by me at least.So once again welcome and no offense other than my natural gruffness.
PS As for the "My good man".I am considered a bit of an ass whole by many.Jesus how precious are some people, if the man has his specialities he aims at fair enough. "Everyone on here is a specialist" – behave.
Well that wasn’t a very good start was it
Maybe ‘specialist’ was the wrong word, what i meant to get across was that i spend a lot of my spare time ‘studying’ for Cheltenham and Epsom.
Andy: No problemo with you being grouchy, think we all are at some stage, i am more so now i am approaching 50
Andy: Not at all but muchos respect to you
Your grouchiness is happily accepted in all future comments
Kind of speaks volumes that only 2 of the 16 or so unraced colts on my shortlist are entered, namely Voodoo Prince & World Domination. There’s also an April 30th Galileo colt from Aidan called Sam Lord’s Castle but he’s out of a lowly maiden winner. I’d take it that both are ready to run very soon & should be backed sooner rather than later because I think the 12f 3yo field could be very open as things stand.
Zarks: I have already backed World Domination BUT have heard in the last 2 days that SEA MOON has been working the best of their 3 year olds, have you heard owt like that?
I feel genuinely honoured that you think I’m well connected! Alas, I’m not. At all.
Slightly confused by your last post though. Sea Moon’s been working the best in Cecil’s yard? But he’s trained by Stoute. In any case I couldn’t even entertain the thought of a RPR82 twice-raced juvenile having lost a Leicester maiden colt winning the Derby.
Same goes for Carlton House, something smells a little to me. Improvement of 22lbs from finishing a 4L 2nd in a Salisbury maiden to winning a Newbury maiden over the same trip? My feeling on wide-margin maiden winners is that it’s their stamina that produces the huge distance rather than the burst of speed. Can’t think of many wide margin (5L+) 8f/12f UK Classic winners other than Workforce. I couldn’t oppose him on the breeding grounds, although his foaling date is a little later than I’d ideally want (April 30th). I’d have him down as a St. Leger hopeful more than anything else.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.