Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Derby 2011
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March 20, 2011 at 17:01 #346408
I am not Bobby.
Seathestars was a great horse already decided because of the genepool he came from. I am not saying that John Oxx didnt handle him superbly which he did.
Also you mention Sindarr and Azamour..fair enough Top class horses.
But he is given unbelievable ammo from the Aga Khan every year and it seems that he does nothing with it. Blaming big backward types etc etc etc. His counterparts in France are given the same bloodlines and they produce results year in year out with Dupre especially.
I dont mean to have a really hard go at Oxx but for me he doesn’t deliver any consistency. He has a true following in Ireland because of his father but he is not a patch on Jim Bolger for me who i personally rate thee best trainer in Ireland with AOB.
Oxx could well stick it down my throat but as a punter i have no faith in him with my cash.
March 20, 2011 at 17:05 #346409He hasnt trained a Group 1 Winner for the Aga Khan since Kastori in 2006 which is a long time. Azamour was 2005.
He had alandi in 2009 who who stayers races which is fair enough but its a very small return in 5 years for the bloodlines in his yard
March 20, 2011 at 20:21 #346462AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
He hasnt trained a Group 1 Winner for the Aga Khan since Kastori in 2006 which is a long time. Azamour was 2005.
He had alandi in 2009 who who stayers races which is fair enough but its a very small return in 5 years for the bloodlines in his yard
John Oxx is not afraid to come out and tell the world his string isn’t very good and I don’t think he’s got the best ammunition either this year again. I agree he gets a lot of horses but he trains the Aga Khan plenty of winners year in year out in Ireland with a lot landing listed/group races which is vital for his breeding operation. He missed out big time on Arazan who was struck down by serious injury and could of been going to this day as a stable star, Mourayan was 3rd in the Irish Derby 2009 and Katiyra was 3rd in the English Oaks 2008 and has lost Alandi to Australlia.
Look at the ammunition Mark Johnston gets and has failed to train a Group 1 winner bar Nahoodh in the Falmouth. They are hard to come across and even harder to keep finding for the same owner.
I dont think the Aga Khan would ever begin to think twice about sending his horses elswhere, if there is one little budding beauty arising in Currabeg you wouldn’t want him in any other hands than the master oxx.
March 21, 2011 at 14:41 #346558hi im andy first i like to say that i have bk carlton house to win the derby frankel wont stay the trip carlton house will have a run out over the next couple of weeks will keep u posted on this and secondly darren there is a horse running in next years derby 2000 guiness from the john oxx stable and johnny murtary is up to riding it .labrokes and corals have got it up at 66/1 derby guiness and 200 double corals go 50/1 and 150/1 double he is out of sea the stars and gallilao they were to derby winners the name of the horse is born to sea i have 180 quid on it so far loads more to go on it by the way i had 250 on workforce for the derby just after he won at goodwood won over 5000 good luck my friends andy
March 21, 2011 at 19:22 #346593Ruby,
I think you are being a little unfair on John Oxx. I maybe wrong but based on the fact that the Aga Khan spends a fair amount of time (Chantilly) in France, it is fair to say that he probably keeps his best prospects in that country.
Maybe John Oxx doesn’t get the perceived best of his (Aga Khan;s) 2 year olds, maybe he gets what is perceived as the B team. I could be wrong.
I too rate Jim Bolger highly and have great time for him
BB
March 22, 2011 at 19:20 #346798But he is given unbelievable ammo from the Aga Khan every year and it seems that he does nothing with it. Blaming big backward types etc etc etc. His counterparts in France are given the same bloodlines and they produce results year in year out with Dupre especially.
What unbelievable ammo would De Royer-Dupre faired better with?
March 23, 2011 at 13:07 #346885I not saying John Oxx is not a good trainer. What am i saying is that as a punter their is always excuses made for his horses when it comes to the big days.
I not so sure he doesn’t get the cream of the crop…these bloodlines have been exceptionally managed and i dont believe you can blame the Aga Khan for his ability to give Oxx good stock. Look at Mick Halford he gets the wonky Aga Khan horses and get plenty of winners for him at a similar level as John Oxx.
He said last year he has a very good bunch of 2yr olds but i cant remember any of his horses actually proving it on a track. A lot of them won maidens and weren’t see again. Now i know he is patience sort of trainer but as a punter patience wears very thin.
The whole situation with Arazan was poorly handled..especially since the rumour was that the Vet gave the horse the wrong medication and he nearly died.
In specific relation to the Epsom Derby as i said to write off all his entries i strong on this point for the simple reason that of the 3 entries i can see that he has left
Kayalar(Has not run)
Raydari(has not run)
Sharestan(Has not run)Now for anyone expecting these horses to line up in the Derby with any realistic chance is a big mad for me. Not one of these 3 have run yet despite one being sired by Noverre(2yr hit the mark quick) Sharamdal(who clearly gets 2yr olds) and Desert Style who also get top class 2yr olds. It seems to me that the breeding is perfect for these horses to at least run a few times before.
When Matt Chapman goes ringing Oxx asking why these horses still havent run at its end of may…i already know what is going to be said. "we got help up".
March 23, 2011 at 13:36 #346888I believe that jessica harrington is probably the best "under the radar" trainer in ireland.She trains whatever is put on her plate, flat or NH, and she trains good.
March 23, 2011 at 20:28 #346938Ruby,
You said that Oxx gets the same bloodlines as De Royer-Dupre, he doesn’t get the cream of them. De Royer-Dupre is the principal trainer for the Aga Khan, he gets the superior stock.
JohnJ
March 24, 2011 at 15:36 #347046Is their any evidence though John that he does?
Dupre gets better results but does he get the better stock…okay generally i would prob agree he gets the better yearlings on inspection but John Oxx gets 60 odd 2yr olds every year(they cant be all useless) and he doesn’t seem to do very much with them. Halford does just as well with 20 odd.
I just write him off completely for the 2011 Derby is my main point. He wont have a contender.
March 24, 2011 at 19:34 #347075Dermot Weld has entered Notable Graduate in the 4.30 at the Curragh on Sunday (sorry I called him Notable Guest in my initial post on this thread).
It’s a maiden over 1m 2f. He’s not entered in the Derby yet but I am very hopeful he’ll prove to be top class on the basis of his very encouraging debut and the fact he is half brother to Refuse to Bend and Media Puzzle.
March 24, 2011 at 21:26 #347090I’ll abandon the 2yo Summary Thread and just post on this.
I’ve still got 24 names on my Derby shortlist, whittled down from the 420-odd initial entries. The big names on there are Frankel and Maxios, but actually only 8 have run & I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a winner who hadn’t raced as a juvenile.
Bugler’s Dream
Cherokee Brave
Eagles Peak
Ecliptic
Eighty Eight Red
Farrier
Fascinating
Fiorente
Frankel
Interpret
Lyric Street
Maxios
Medal of Valour
Midsummer Fair
Monamar
Pareo
Pour Moi
Sary Shayan
Suhaili
Target Point
Trade Commissioner
Voodoo Prince
William Wake
World DominationI’d actually question Frankel’s stamina (Galileo’s progeny have been rather strange, being either top class 10 furlong runners or 14f+ stayers), but at the same time I think he’s value at 6/1. He could win this on class and class alone. It’s not a price tempting enough for me to back though, perhaps at 8s or 10s.
Eighty Eighty Red & Lyric Street posted very low RPRs on their debuts so really they can be forgotten. Maxios wouldn’t interest me for the Derby, but I think he looks like a great Arc prospect. I’ve backed at 33s. I’d expect Derby Trial-Prix du Jockey Club-GP de Paris-Niel.
I’ve backed World Domination twice at 25s but Grimthorpe’s comments didn’t thrill me the other day, saying he’d done ‘precious little’. Unless he’s debuted in the next 30 days I’ll happily lay it off. I was rather annoyed to see Claude Duval put up Suhaili the other day, but he was still there at 275s on Betdaq. He ran an eye-catching race but with Jarvis having retired, I wonder if he’s just not that good. Surely the prospect of a Derby winner would’ve spurred him on for a further 3 months?
Pour Moi’s an interesting O’Brien runner having debuted at Longchamp for Fabre. He was promptly transferred to AOB in the ownership of Michael Tabor. Again, I’ve backed him.
The list will be a lot clearer by the end of April anyway, since theoretically anything without a run just won’t be able to get the experience needed to win a Derby.
The horse that really interests me though, despite breaking Trend #1, is Dubai Prince. He debuted at Gowran Park, a non-Group 1 track, but High Chaparral and Hawk Wing (1st & 2nd in 2002) debuted at non-Grade 1 tracks, as have the vast majority of Aidan O’Brien Derby contenders.
I think it’s significant that he ran in and won the same race that Grey Swallow did in 2003, the Killavullan Stakes, and did so with the same RP comments; ‘quickened’, ‘impressive’. I was just as impressed and texted a friend immediately, just grateful for the Guineas contender I spent all of last Autumn looking for. Peter Martins was my first, Dubai Prince my second. Dermot Weld was very downbeat on his Guineas chances after the race, but Godolphin look like they’re willing to try his chances and in what looks like a weak Guineas bar the favourite, I think he has an outstanding chance, of a place at the very least. Weld was also very bullish about the horse last week, despite him having been transferred to Al Zarooni’s yard. I can’t get those comments out of my head and think he’s a great bet for both Classics, 20/1 and 12/1.
March 24, 2011 at 21:37 #347093For me i would write off every horse that has not run. I don’t know when the winner of the Derby had not had one run as a 2yr old. Colts are different from Fillies. Many of them cant to the ballydoyle trick where they start in 3yr old maidens and make their way up to the Oaks and get placed and this is only done with Fillies, one reason is breeding and another is AOB and for a simple reason that fillys can do this.
Colts for me cant do this…how many hype horses do we hear that have not run as 3yr old and the 99% of them end up doing nothing.
Obviously Pour Moi Zarkava is a incredibly exciting and interesting horse because he beat a well touted runner that went off odds on. Recital and Roderic O Conner are the only other Irish Contenders for me.
I see David Duggan put up Seville but i cant have him on my mind…looked a slow boat against Casemento.
March 25, 2011 at 10:58 #347148Dermo can be a little cute when talking about a horse who has left his yard. Easy to say "I gave you a derby winner but you screwed it up".If he still had the horse he would be more conservative about his chances!
March 27, 2011 at 04:48 #347422Ruby, 9 times out of 10 I’d not even think about backing a horse without 2yo experience in the Derby, but I just think that it looks such an open race with no real stand-out contender. Frankel going to Epsom with 3 runs under him, hmmmm. Other than him, there’s basically nothing on my shortlist. Putting the once-raced contenders to one side & those who patently won’t stay, I get diddly squat bar unraced 3yos. Commander in Chief was the last to do it in 1993 btw. Ironically that day his 4/5 favourite was beaten, hmmm, World Domination to beat Frankel anybody?
March 27, 2011 at 04:55 #347423Ruby,
I think you are being a little unfair on John Oxx. I maybe wrong but based on the fact that the Aga Khan spends a fair amount of time (Chantilly) in France, it is fair to say that he probably keeps his best prospects in that country.
Maybe John Oxx doesn’t get the perceived best of his (Aga Khan;s) 2 year olds, maybe he gets what is perceived as the B team. I could be wrong.
I too rate Jim Bolger highly and have great time for him
BB
Well he lives in Chantilly and has the biggest chunk of his breeding empire in France. Very unfair to rule all of Oxx’s out immediately and dare I say foolish too. If you’re going to rule all of Oxx’s out, you may as well do the same for Aidan O’Brien. Just 1 UK Classic win since Kastoria won a Group 1 for Oxx and with far greater firepower.
His UK Classic record since 1995; 131 Epsom Derby, 643 Epsom Oaks, 31 2000 Guineas, 2 1000 Guineas, 55 St Leger. He’s a shrewd trainer who knows the time of day and won’t waste his and our time with a horse who doesn’t have a big chance.
March 27, 2011 at 05:24 #347424Ballydoyle ran their first 3yo colt of significance yesterday in the UAE Derby and he ran quite well i.e. Master of Hounds.Their other horse finished 6th.
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