- This topic has 530 replies, 83 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 5 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Recital needs good to soft to win this derby and he’s not going to get it.
Native Khan eachway is the shrewdies choice and where the real value lies.Why does everybody think Montjeus need soft ground? It’s not as if he’s had tons of his progeny win Group 1s on the quick stuff.
- Total Posts 17716
Why does everybody think Montjeus need soft ground? It’s not as if he’s had tons of his progeny win Group 1s on the quick stuff.
Your post don’t make sense, was your last senstance sarcasm?
Heavy 45 Wins
Soft 79 Wins
Gd-sft 88 Wins
Good 151 Wins
Gd-fm 139 WinsIt was, Mr. Wilson. Motivator, Authorized, Fame and Glory, Walk In The Park, etc all ran big races on quick ground in the Derby.
Not to mention Hurricane Run won a King George on lightning fast ground.
I am trying to work out the race tactics. Ballydoyle appear to have two possible pace makers in Memphis and Treasure. However, although both raced prominently, neither was a front runner in the Derby trials.
Nevertheless Ballydoyle will want to draw the sting out of Carlton, Native Khan and Pour Moi in order to give Seville a chance.
I reckon as Joseph O’B did so well on Roderic O’Connor from the front in the Irish 2000 Guineas they might ask him to try the tactic again on Memphis. Maybe Treasure will take up the running if Memphis flops.
I reckon the pacemaker could have a fair chance of a place because there is a chance that with fast ground, the jockeys in mid-division might underestimate the required pace, as seemed to happen last year, leaving them with too much to do at the end.
I imagine Carlton, Pour Moi and Recital will want to run fairly close to the pace in order to avoid leaving it too late. Presumably the main chance for Seville is that these three run out of puff and he stays on better.
Fallon bad boy back with Coolmore….Murtagh ex-Coolmore knows how they operate, new kid on the block riding for Fabre, all adds up to an interesting farce.Can’t wait!
Murtagh wins the Oaks!
The faster the pace the better for Pour Moi in my opinion.
Can’t wait for tomorrow, won’t sleep tonight.
Epsom Derby
1/ Carlton House (Moore / Stoute) Drawn 13:
The Queen’s Dante (1m2f88y) winner beat Seville and Pisco Sour by 1½ and 2½ lengths. But more impressive than distances indicate. Not the easiest to load and took a couple of furlongs to settle. In a slowly run race came between horses with head down, looking very genuine. By Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry who is not as great a stamina influence as his racing record suggests; with an average winning distance in Europe of under a mile. However, his dam is Talented who has produced a 1m7f winner by Barathea. She herself won the Sun Chariot Stakes (then a 1¼m Group 2) and placed in Ribblesdale (1½m). The way Carlton House was staying on in the Dante suggests he’ll get the Derby trip, but it is not a given. Has had an eleventh hour setback which puts a question mark about his fitness.
24% 100/30
2/ Castlemorris King (Coumbe / Attwater) 11 (visor1):
Absolutely no chance and should not be allowed in the race. My evaluation of form goes down to 0.05% 2000/1, Castlemorris King does not reach that level.
No Price
3/ Marhaba Malyoon (Spencer / Simcock) 8:
Only a touch above Castlemorris King’s ability, but still not enough to get a percentage. Last of six in a poor Lingfield Derby trial.
No Price
4/ Masked Marvel (Buick / Gosden) 5:
Won the slowly run listed Cocked Hat (1m3f) at Goodwood. Taking time to reach full stride, but going further clear in the finish. 3 lengths second Namibian did not do much for the form at Newmarket when 4th to Laajooj. He was hampered there and unsuited by a slight drop in trip, but the form of Goodwood is questionable. However, Masked Marvel will come on for that experience and a stiffer test should suit. He’s a good looking colt, does not seem to have the quirks of many by stamina influence Monjeu; relaxed at Goodwood. From the family of a German St Leger winner. Current betfair odds of around 40/1 appear to underestimate his chance.
4% 25/1
5/ Memphis Tennesse (JP O’Brien / A O’Brien) 6:
Coolmore 4th string is by King George winner Hurricane Run, dam from the family of Ebor winner Honolulu. Bred to be much better at 1½m and further than shorter distances. Beaten 1½ lengths by Recital in Leopardstown Derby Trial (1¼m). Seems far more straightforward and did not have the benefit of a run like his apparently more illustrious stable companion. Available at infinitely better odds too. Ridden by trainer’s son.
5¾ % 16/1
6/ Native Khan (Murtagh / E Dunlop) 3:
By Azamour who although won the King George and other middle-distance Group 1’s, also had enough speed to win the St James’s Palace (1m). Half brother to a 1½m winner (by Victory Note), but most of the family seem to be best short of that distance and dam Viva Maria herself won at 6f. Native Khan was third in the Guineas to the great Frankel. Race run at a terrific pace and other than the winner, Native Khan was the only horse to travel well for a long way. That despite many of the field better bred for the mile. I have my doubts whether one who shows so much speed at a mile will stay 1½. If he does, the current price will look big. Kieran Fallon has chosen Recital rather than keep with Native Khan. Despite the stamina doubts I still make him slight value at around 12/1.
9½% 10/1
7/ Ocean War (Dettori / Zarooni) 10:
Godolphin have had several horses thought of as better Derby candidates than Ocean War. Whether that is a positive or negative, I am not sure. Casamento goes to France, but their best hope was probably Dubai Prince who is injured. Ocean War won the listed Newmarket Stakes by 2 ¼ lengths from Cai Shen. More needed but is progressive. By Arc winner Dalakhani out of sprinter Sea Gift. The way he stays on over 1¼m suggests takes after his sire.
5¼ % 18/1
8/ Pisco Sour (Fortune / Morrison) 1:
In the coffin box draw. A lot of those in stall 1 are cut off when others come over after the first right-handed kink. However, Pisco Sour is (if the Dante is anything to go by) a front-runner. May be able to get out of trouble. Being beaten a total of 4 lengths by Derby favourite Carlton House and just 2 ½ from Seville; might make 100/1 look tremendous value. But looked grossly flattered that day. Favoured by setting a slow pace before kicking for home. Sire USA Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid is a fair stamina influence. Dam only ran twice and is by South African champion Horse Chestnut. Talented trainer Hughie Morrison does not usually tilt at windmills, but when he does it’s with this owner.
½% 200/1
9/ Pour Moi (Barzalona / Fabre) 7:
It’s not really the form that makes him a challenger, but the way he did it. Won easily despite having to come from last to first in Prix Greffulhe (Group 2 1m2f). Trainer has said this is his best chance of winning the Derby, but his feelings for the horse must have changed after the race. Otherwise would not have gone off 12/1, and also big outsider of 5 when only 3rd penultimate start. Apparently put up an outstanding time in a piece of work at Epsom under his young rider. Without the trainer’s words would not have been so well backed this week. Another by Monjeu, from a middle-distance female line. Obvious potential for better, particularly over this trip, but has something to find on form with some bigger priced rivals. The Greffulhe 1½ length second Bubble Chic had been beaten 5 lengths by Recital in Criterium de Saint Cloud as a two year old. Pour Moi is owned by Coolmore who also have the Aidan O’Brien trained quartet.
14½% 6/1
10/ Recital (Fallon / O’Brien) 4:
Form of his Group 1 win in Criterium de Saint Cloud boosted when runner-up finished in the same position but 3½ lengths closer to Pour Moi. Connections blamed the strong headwind for Recital’s antics in the Leopardstown Trial (1¼m). Raced with head high (though did as a two year old too). Also hung badly left and looks as though he might be one of those Montjeu’s who’s temperament goes the wrong way. Needs to learn from the experience. Reportedly going to be held up for a later run tomorrow. If he hangs badly left on a comparatively flat course, is unlikely to be suited to Epsom. Although Recital’s sire is a strong stamina influence; half-brother Racinger (by primarily middle-distance sire Spectrum) was a miler. Full brother Corre Caminos won the Prix Ganay at 1m2½f which is the furthest he raced. Most of the dam’s progeny are milers. So is not a given to stay, especially as he’s a quirky, nervy sort.
13½% 13/2
11/ Seville (Soumillon / O’Brien) 2:
Stable’s runners have been needing their first run. Although travelled well for a long way in the slowly run Dante (1m2f88y) is bred to be much better at 1½m and more. By Galileo out of Silverskaya who finished 8th in the Arc, with stamina influence Silver Hawk as maternal grand-sire. There is every chance of big improvement in a fast run Derby. Has enough speed to finish a good ¾ length second to Casamento in Racing Post Trophy (1m), only a month after his debut. Going was good at Doncaster and good-firm at York. Soumillon keeps the ride and it is to be hoped he’s learnt from the experience. A prominent position should be first option, especially as often horses come across to block those drawn low. Still excellent value at around 7/1.
17% 5/1
12/ Treasure Beach (O’Donaghue / O’Brien) 12:
Won Chester Vase (1½m) first time up, getting first run on Nathanial. Needs to improve a good deal on that form. Didn’t look a top class horse when distant third behind Frankel in the Royal Lodge at two. Hampered by the second when chance had gone. Proven at the trip. Looks coolmore 5th string.
2% 50/1
13/ Vadamar (Lemaire / de Royer Dupre) 9:
Started odds-on to beat Pour Moi in Greffulhe (1¼m) last time. Passed quite easily in closing stages and beaten a total of 2½ lengths. A line through the second Bubble Chic gives him plenty to find with Recital. Very well bred, by Dalakhani out of a Prix Saint Alary (1¼m) winner. Should be suited by the trip. If he had excuses last time would come in to calculations.
4% 25/1
Backed Seville 12/1, Memphis Tennesse 28/1 and Masked Marvel 41/1.
Laid Frankel.
Backed Carlton House @ 5/2 and got out of half of that at 100/30.Value Is EverythingRecital Price is just collapsing at the moment….he is in to 5.5 on the exchanges. Coolmore must have some of the family silver on this chap.
Maybe I’ve got out of bed the wrong side but I’m steaming at the way Alice Plunkett has just dismissed Big Mac’s take on the Carlton House situation on the Morning Line. He may well be wrong but he’s forgotten more about the game than you’ll ever know you silly bitch so a bit of respect is in order
Maybe I’ve got out of bed the wrong side but I’m steaming at the way Alice Plunkett has just dismissed Big Mac’s take on the Carlton House situation on the Morning Line. He may well be wrong but he’s forgotten more about the game than you’ll ever know you silly bitch so a bit of respect is in order
Alice Plunkett gave perfectly cogent reasons why she disagreed with John McCririck’s views about the probability of Carlton House running well or badly in the Derby. John saying that having the equivalent of a swollen ankle five days before the race would stop him winning, despite the horse cantering again two days later. For a tennis analogy, Andy Murray turned his ankle in the French Open a few days ago causing swelling and bruising. He carried on and won that match, then won his next two matches before eventually losing in the semi final. Alice said that Sir Michael Stoute would not run the risk of ruining a horse by running it when it was not fit enough to run, which is a good and true reason. She was much too lady-like and self-effacing to say that with her background she knows more about horse physiology, anatomy, injury and recovery, training and fitness, than John could ever contemplate.
Also, they are both paid to make this TV programme interesting.
Also, Jim McGrath, Nick Luck and Walter Swinburn all thought Carlton House would win. They may all be wrong about that, but obviously all disagree with John McCririck.
Can I suggest an anger management course for you? Or perhaps quite a long sleep so that maturity, respect and understanding might come to you over time.
If you want to feel better about yourself you could always try:
http://www.justgiving.com/aliceplunkett
and make a contribution to Cancer Research UK
Maybe I’ve got out of bed the wrong side but I’m steaming at the way Alice Plunkett has just dismissed Big Mac’s take on the Carlton House situation on the Morning Line. He may well be wrong but he’s forgotten more about the game than you’ll ever know you xxxxx xxxxx so a bit of respect is in order
Respect goes both ways. By saying "Sir Michael would not be running Carlton House if it was not the Derby", is not showing ANY respect to the trainer, or the Queen. Big Mac does NOT know how serious the "injury" was. It could easily be a superficial thing, the way the price has recovered suggests as much. This was a Morning Line that thousands of once/twice a year punters tune in to. Joe Public already has a belief connections don’t care less about the horses. Big Mac with his stupid outburst with his (I believe) self publicising, headline making words have made things worse. He’s just said something which enables him to say "I told you so", or "Carlton House should never have run", if unplaced. Had it been another member of the crew, I think they’d have given Big Mac far less respect than Alice.
As for your disrespectful name calling Wolfsbane. I am sure Alice would show you more respect than you’ve given her.
Value Is EverythingIf (as I believe has happened) Kieren Fallon put pen to paper; then the owner was quite right to complain. Breech of contract.
You could say what a xxxx Fallon is.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.