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I’ve finally committed to a horse – Roderic O’Connor. I’ve had a look through his profile and actually the only trend he breaks is that his debut RPR was extremely low – just 78. Should he win, his debut RPR would be higher only than Kris Kin’s.
I don’t believe for one second any of the opposition are bombproof.
I’ve backed at 30s, obviously with the possibility he’ll miss Epsom altogether, but I think it’s worth the gamble with the field looking downright dreadful.
I quite like the chances of Masked Marvel but can anyone tell me the last time a Derby winner finished unplaced as a 3yo racing in this country outside of the 2000 guineas ? Must be at least 30 years possibly 40 unless I have missed one.
It doesn’t look a poor Derby to me. Potentially 3 top class colts lining up; Carlton House, Pour Moi and Recital.
Cannot have Native Khan, I don’t understand his appeal at all. He does not appear to me to be a Group 1 horse, he lacks class.
Looking for an outsider, I have come down to Memphis Tennessee. I think that he will be placed at a good price.
I keep seeing this term "lacks class"
What does that even mean?
Such an ambiguous statement.
Some comments on Ballydoyle were quite harsh. Ballydoyle has won two Derbies.Andre Sabre has had nine attempts and no winners.Ballydoyle have been the mainstay of the Derby for many years winners or no.
Aidan your some Bollocks…get the ******* Declarations in and stop acting the arse bandit for **** sake.
No offence meant but Jesus christ you swear he didn’t know what was going to run
Would you expect anything else from Mr O’ Brien?
Expect Seville to head to The Prix Du Jockey Club with Roderic O Connor and Treasure Beach and Recital and Memphis Tennesee to head to Epsom.
Who do you think will ride Recital?
I see that Johnny Murtagh rode a Coolmore owned horse today called Bewitched. Will he get a ride in the Derby?
Maybe it’s his turn to ride Recital if Kieron Fallon is riding Native Khan?
As I have said before I like Recital and Carlton House, I think Pour Moi is OK but does not seem as good as these two colts and Native Khan is a Grey and for those that like stats, Greys have only won 3 times in the history of the Derby. Can Kieron bring him home 1st?
I now think I have a "green book" on the betfair antepost market and want to have a day of the race bet, which one of those 4 do you think I should back?
Can AOB sort out the son of Montjeu’s problems when he hits the front so whatever jockey is riding can keep him going OK? He reminds me of Papal Bull who looked so awful in the paddock at Newmarket that my racing cronies turned to me and questioned me as to why I had told them they should actually back this animal, Papal Bull romped home at 6/1 that day.
Seems to me that Pour Moi will be the Coolmore horse of choice.
Follow the Heartline stallion/s through ‘Mahmoud’ and you come to ‘Gainsborough’.the last English triple crown winner.
http://www.pedigreequery.comMy two against the field are Pour Moi and, as an e/w bet, Ocean War.
PM has been discussed here already, but Ocean War is there because he’s got some excellent breeding, he’s capable of staying the trip and he seems to have a nice, unobtrusive preparation.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
So I have now returned from a trip to an Off License where I have purchased a bottle of Rioja which for £6.50 even the Gingertipster would have to agree was value if he were to ever taste it.
To continue my rambling on the matter in hand, I can actually see the possiblity of a blanket finish just like Sir Percy’s Derby ( I know the very mention of his name will cause some of you to feel very ill, and I do apologise) because the best RPR given for what has been achieved to date this year is 118 for 3 of the entrants with Pour Moi below that with 115.
Nothing therefore stands out based on that alone. The majority of those likely to stand their ground tomorrow are bred to get the distance although in my opinion some are actually more likely to have a chance of winning the Irish Derby and or the St Leger, ie Seville or Natheniel.
Obviously we have to take account of something that often gets overlooked when discussing 3 year old only races and that is of course "improvement" as they grow, and this happens at different rates.
The other factor to take account of is how fit were they when they ran in the trials or the 2000 Guineas or indeed the Newmarket Stakes which in the year 2000 Beat Hollow won amd then came 3rd in the Derby. I only mention this because that is what started me off trying to understand the complexity of breeding and horseracing in general which I have been obsessed with ever since. I stood there at the Rowley Mile and asked myself "Why did that win". I’m still working on it.
Anyway thank you Pinza for recommending Dunelm Mill as a supplier of a cheap Pestle and Morter. When it arrived, the pestle was in 6 pieces with the box lid crushed in. Never mind it was very cheap so it’s of no consequence.
Back to the matter in hand. Who will win the Derby this year?
Talking through my pocket its Carlton House, or second to that Recital.My owm method of breeding analysis and acheivment to date also says those 2 colts. So when the Grey Native Khan comes steaming down the hill under a Fallon drive at least I’ll not be feeling sick as I have that covered.
In another thread I posted that I fancied Seville to win the Derby but now I am pleased that I didn’t back him.
After going through the card properly a few days ago, I decided that this could be the year for French trainer Fabre. He is an excellent trainer and full deserves to win this race after 9 failed attempts.
Pour Moi looks excellent value and I got 8/1 earlier in the week and lumped on when it went into 4/1. I don’t fancy Carlton House at all and I’ve got a strong feeling about Pour Moi.
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Vadamar runs!!!!!!!!!
Am I missing something here?
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