- This topic has 611 replies, 68 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Question for you guys do you worry that ST Nicholas Abbey will not stay 1m4 has he got to much speed for the race.I think he be alright.
Darren we’ll know a bit more about his speed after May 1st…
So far of the nine that run at Saint-Cloud behind ‘Passion For Gold’ –
five have run for one winner…Question for you guys do you worry that ST Nicholas Abbey will not stay 1m4 has he got to much speed for the race.I think he be alright.
Darren, is this your moment of doubt on St Nic? I had that 4 months ago and got through that
He’s bred to stay. It’ll be fine
"MIKHAIL GLINKA (38) put up a tremendous performance in the Ballysax Stakes to get beat in a three way photo. Nine times out of ten he would have won the race handsomely. But the pace, traffic and inexperience conspired against him.
AT FIRST SIGHT (38) had shared pacemaking duties in the recent public gallop at the Curragh where Mikhail Glinka produced that great turn of foot to get up and touch off St Nicholas Abbey. Here he made the running again but he went too slow.
In fact At First Sight covered the first three furlongs 3.1 seconds slower than the leaders went in the 50-80 handicap over the same trip. This gave him and his nearest pursuer PUNCHER CLYNCH (38) a huge tactical edge in the sprint from home.
At First Sight very nearly repeated the feat of that other Coolmore pacemaker Balestrini who won the Ballysax back in 2003. But Puncher Clynch just managed to wear him down. However it was hard not to be drawn to the remarkable way Mikhail Glinka finished.
As they hit the furlong pole Mikhail Glinka was three and a half lengths back in sixth place and looked to have a huge task on to catch the first two who were still flying thanks to going slow early. But he surged forward only to hesitate until 100 yards out while he changed his path slightly to get around Famous Warrior. He absolutely surged forward from there, gaining another two lengths but was still a short head and a neck short down the line.
I doubt that the first two are any better than Group 3 class horses. But the tremendous burst of speed Mikhail Glinka showed once again to so nearly snatch the race out of the fire tells me he’s a serious Group 1 runner and a big player in the Derby.
There was always a danger that this big, tall, good bodied, muscular, mature, classy looking sort would find the ten furlongs a little too short, and the modest early pace made that a reality.
Mikhail Glinka is very stoutly bred. His sire is Galileo who gets plenty of stayers and his dam is a 12 furlong winner that’s a half sister to Derby winner Sir Percy. He’s clearly built for at least a mile and a half himself and looks certain to improve over the Derby distance.
The most impressive thing about Mikhail Glinka is that he has improved with every start. This is not uncommon with an Aiden O’Brien horse and is understandable. He has shown clear signs of inexperience in his races, and these have diminished with each successive outing.
Three runs back Mikhail Glinka showed impressive acceleration to run away with a nine furlong Listed race at Leopardstown. He came from the back and won full of running by four lengths despite still looking green.
Next time out in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud Mikhail Glinka improved again. Held up, he lost about a length and a half on the fast finishing winner in the final furlong and a half but gained so much ground on the rest that he passed six of them to take second. As on his previous start he still looked green in the closing stages – carrying his head a little too high and racing rather lazily and unfocused.
Finally in a one mile gallop at the Curragh on March 21st where they picked up to go racing pace the last half mile, Mikhail Glinka came with a strong run down the outside to pick up and score by about a neck from Racing Post Trophy winner St Nicholas Abbey.
Mikhail Glinka has a smart turn of foot and a smooth action, so he looked very likely to improve for the faster surface at Leopardstown, as Aiden O’Brien suggested beforehand.
If he were mine I’d be inclined to skip the obvious next step of going for the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial because the ten furlongs of that race might well find him out again. His stable has other horses for that race anyway. I’d prefer to see Mikhail Glinka shoot for the Lingfield Derby Trial or Chester Vase instead as the longer distance of those races will play to his strengths. I guess the Chester Vase is booked for Cape Blanco as he’s now so big, strong and deep chested he’ll need every yard of the mile and a half and already looks a Leger candidate. That leaves the 11.5 furlong Lingfield Derby Trial for Mikhail Glinka, and I’m betting that’s what he shoots for.
I have been concerned for some time that St Nicholas Abbey may well be too gangly to negotiate Tattenham Corner effectively. So whatever he does between now and Epsom, I’m still going to regard Mikhail Glinka as O’Brien’s number one Derby candidate unless Jan Vermeer does something truly sensational.
As I see it the 50-1 that totesport are offering about Mikhail Glinka for the Derby is barking mad. He beat their 7-4 favourite St Nicholas Abbey fair and square in that gallop and looks the more likely of the two to be suited to the course and distance at Epsom."
Mr Nick Mordin.
I tend to agree that he could be still a Group 1 Horse but disagree about Cape Blanco….think he has plenty of toe
I see that Rain Forest won today at Navan. Another winner behind Flying Cross. Is Sadler’s Wells having an Indian summer?
6 of the 9 – that run in the Criterium De Saint-Cloud have now run…
Two wins for one and one for the first time – outer today!
Flying Cross could be the last Saddlers Wells Great IMO.
Out of a Oaks winner he has got everything and is incredibly pacey for a 1m4f+ sire and 1m4f+ Dam.
He looks the "Real deal"..he may not be a St Nicholas Abbey or Steinbeck in terms Classic’s but he looks a real Diamond.
Hopefully we will get to see him show his stuff soon
Judging by the exchanges Passion For Gold is back in the Derby picture (back down to 16/1)
Value Is EverythingZenjah – why are you linking us to ambient techno?
Don’t get me wrong I’m partial to a bit myself
– just wondered how relevant to the Derby
I can’t look past Zeitoper at this stage in time!!
Out of the brilliant Mare Kazzia who won the Guineas and Oaks, and by Singspiel who also won over CD by winning the Coronation Cup. You could say he is bred to win the race and already has solid form including a nice win at the course!!
33/1 is a steel!!
With Regards Jan Vermeer….
Quite Interesting he won his maiden on Firm Going yet still was adaptable at Very Soft.
He is a big brute of a horse…i get a few pictures up over the weekend to show you him. Really powerful hind quarters
More chance of Aidan O’Brien being sacked than Jan Vermeer running at Epsom if St. Nick’s all fit and well.
A question for those who know their Derby breeding history etc-
Which occured to me whilst looking at the, in many ways attractive, make-up of John Oxx’s Behtarini –
The absence of NorthernDancer-Sadlers Wells (NDSW)line on the broodmare side of ANY Derby winner. Should this concern me?
Whilst NorthernDancer SadlersWells/Danzig/Nijinsky lines clean up on the front end (13/20years) (8 out of 10 last 10 years); On the dam’s side it’s a very different story with -going back to 3rd dam over 20 years- only 5/60 Northern Dancer line (8 percent as opposed to rising 80).
I don’t think it’s a case of waiting for a wave to break through the female bloodline, it just looks as if, for some reason NDSW (and Danzig, Northern Dancer generally), doesn’t make for an effective Derby broodmare sire.
Also in the case of Behtarini, the Nasrullah line on the front end seems to be on the wane as an influence (3 in the 80’s, 2 in the 90’s, just Sir Percy in the 00’s)
I can’t help but feel I’d rather see the NDSW on the sire side and the Nasrullah (Shirley Heights) on the dam’s side.
Nasrullah-Northern Dancer isn’t without precedence – Quest For Fame 1990. But Northern Dancer-Nasrullah is much more prevalent – Authorized, North Light, High Chaparral, Sinndar, Lammtarra, Erhaab, Generous, Kahyasi.
So I think it matters but I’m far from sure why this should be – why Northern Dancer lines seem in fact to be a liability on the female line?; why Northern Dancer, despite now enjoying almost total dominance as sire of Derby sires (Sadlers Wells/Danzig), should have such a poor record as a Derby broodmare sire?
If we could propogate a theory as to why no Sadlers Wells on the dam’s side history might be likely to continue, we could rule out any such candidates.
A similar possible ‘line through’ tool is Native Dancer line sires (no winner since Sea Bird 1965). More commonly we might call this the Mr Prospector line. I’ve noticed the Native Dancer line being more prevalent on the dam’s side in the 00’s than in previous decades (probably what provides zip to SeaTheStars, Motivator, High Chaparral, Galileo) but still no cigar as a sireline for 35 years. I’d rule out, amongst others, all the Kings Bests which would take out, amongst others, Workforce. Although they do say that Derby winners have been becoming more speedily bred? Could that mean a 35 year trend could be broken?
Nicely spotted Pedigree Man, I asked a similar question about 4 years ago as to why at that point had no winner of the Derby,Oaks, or Coronation Cup in the previous 10 years got Northern Dancer duplications in their last 4 generations.
I got no answers and that year, 2007, Authorised won! However to my way of thinking Authorised was a 12f plus bred animal and the other winners were the usual 10-12f bred animals. The duplication maybe increases speed in the mix.Also in the last 10 years 2009, going backwards Authorised is still the only one to win the Derby, and still none the Coronation Cup.
Another point is that no animal with Mr P inbreeding in the last 4 generations has won any of the 12f G1 races that colts and horses can enter in England or Ireland either.
On this basis, I would not expect Burj Nahar, Chabal or Coordinated Cut to win this year.
For some reason i get the feeling the Galileo’s are the ones Coolmore want to win the Derby.
Cape Blanco is the one i would be looking at. Midas Touch is another but he doesn’t look top class.
Interesting i remember when Gary O Brien went to Coolmore and they were talking about Galileo and the guy that was talking to him couldn’t stop talking about Cape Blanco and how they are so excited about him and i think he said "real deal".
If he heads to the Derrinstown i would seriously be looking at taking a antepost Price as soon as those entries are out.
Something just didn’t add up with St Nicholas Abbey run in the Guineas for me and since he is a smallish colt i would be worried about that performance. He still ran a blinding race and obviously will improve but i wonder is Cape Blanco the one lurking in the shadows.
Ladbrokes got it right in the Guineas and they went top price for the Derby Straight after. Maybe they know something we don’t
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.