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With a week to go until the big one I feel like making a bold prediction……
<b>Not only do I think Ectot will win next week, I think he will be the most spectacular winner since Dancing Brave. </b>
Ok so the fact that I have vouchers at 50’s and 25’s means I am biased as hell but, even allowing for that, I am pretty sure this horse is the best since You Know Who.
The more I watch the videos the more I am convinced. He has that same presence as Frankel, he travels as sweetly, when he quickens it is instant, his sweep around the field in the Niel was so like the Royal Lodge. The big difference is what he does when he gets in front…….nothing! This is why you can still get 6’s.
This is a top class miler who was quick enough to beat the French 2,000 Guineas winner under hands and heels. A miler who gets a mile and a half and has the speed and acceleration to leave the rest for dead. My only concern was a bog but the sun continues to beat down in Paris with no sign of any rain between now and next Sunday.
So on Arc day he will be left late. You will see him travelling sweetly at the back of the field as his pacemaker cuts out a decent pace. You will watch the race start to unfold down the straight and think "where is this Ectot then?!!!" And then you will see him swoop down the outside with a burst like The Brave and win going away.
Then I hope you will see him next year when this beast of a horse fills out and becomes one of the greats.
Talk about setting yourself up hey!!!! <!– s:D –>
<!– s:D –>"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Love it Joni..Thats the sort of post you would see from TAPK in years gone by…….Lets hope it wins too!
Good luck mate I think you have a major player here.I remember the build up to Dancing Braves
victory like it was yesterday.The Ante-Post fav was
Bering
but I just wouldn’t have it,I was supposed to be playing football that day but I faked an injury so I could see him.Pat Eddery was lucky he was sitting on the horse he was on as any other would have been beaten being asked to do what he did but thats what made The Brave the horse he was.Fingers crossed for you anyway mate…..50/1 winners are rare,putting them up on here even rarer.
Cheers Gord. I somehow thought that post would touch your parts! I just hope the outcome is the same as ’86!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Ectot is a group 1 winner but it is just the one he has won so far and it was a 4 runner affair.
He beat Karakontie who, as you have said, went on to win the French 2000 Guineas. I am not convinced that was a good race though and the future form from that race seems to suggest so, with only one winner from 14 subsequent runs and that was in listed company. Karakontie went on to cut little ice behind The Grey Gatsby and the general feeling I get regarding the French Colts of the last couple of seasons has been very much that they have been Vin Ordinaire at best.
You say Ectot is a top class miler but we don’t have a lot of evidence of that based on the sparse amount of form. How would he have fared in this year’s 2000 Guineas had he turned up? We will never know of course but it seems fairly certain that if we sat him and Kingman a couple of lengths behind Toronado with two furlongs to run in a mile race there would be a discrepancy in the match odds between the two.
The question then becomes whether this good miler can become the Arc winner of a Generation now that he faces the extra half mile. The Prix Niel was a good indicator that he’ll be OK at the trip. His turn of foot was too good for the field in that company but the question has to be how good that company was.
I believe Adelaide is a good yardstick to use, he’s run in group 2’s in the UK and France, as well as plying his trade in the USA. Looking at his form we see that he was no match for Eagle Top at Ascot and that horse went on to finish a fair bit behind stablemate Taghrooda on his next start in the King George, a race that seemed to take no prisoners, as none of them won next time out. The bare form points to Ectot having a bit to find with Taghrooda in the Arc but you can argue Ectot will improve, though it’s not always automatic.
Looking back at The Prix Niel, Ectot does sweep through but they are catching him at the end. Was he idling, did he need the race or was the petrol gauge getting low? It could be one, more or all of those reasons but I also get the feeling Adelaide would have given him at least a wee fright with a better bit of jockeyship on the day. Once Ectot came past the field Ryan Moore looked in a less than ideal position as he realises he has to get after the favourite. He’s a little short of room for a few strides and I estimate he lost a couple of lengths at least. He ends up about half a dozen lengths behind Ectot at one stage but closes that down to about two at the line.
If I were on Ectot at 50/1 I would be happy to accept the jammiest short head win in the history of the race. He goes there as a leading contender but it seems early to be predicting an epic win. Yes, he won his comeback race in good style but it was a group 2 race where he was expected to win, going off a warm favourite despite the absence and the stamina question mark. That tells us bookies thought he was facing lesser opponents and it’s worth bearing that in mind I think.
I will raise my hat to both you and the horse if Ectot prevails but you seems to be basing an awful lot of faith on one "Mini-Arazi" type burst.
Good luck though Joni!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Very good post Stevie and lots of excellent points but I can tell you my bonfire is still alight!
Most of what you say is right but a couple of points I’d take up with you.
The bookies may well have made him fav lto because they actually know how good he is. Probably why they have also made him joint fav for the Arc on the back of a neck win over an average animal. You can’t look at bare form with this horse. He does zip in front.
Also I think he IS a top class miler. He is unbeaten over a mile including two Group 3’s and a Group 1 and he beat the subsequent Guineas winner. That is pretty top class form no? Karakontie did run poorly last time but it is notable that he runs in the 7f Foret next week so probably safe to assume he didn’t get home.
Anyway you are right that he has plenty to prove and that his bare form leaves him plenty to find as well. But the visual impression this horse makes tells me we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of him yet and, if Benoist times it right, I think you are going to see a special winner.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Very good post Stevie and lots of excellent points but I can tell you my bonfire is still alight!
Most of what you say is right but a couple of points I’d take up with you.
The bookies may well have made him fav lto because they actually know how good he is. Probably why they have also made him joint fav for the Arc on the back of a neck win over an average animal. You can’t look at bare form with this horse. He does zip in front.
Also I think he IS a top class miler. He is unbeaten over a mile including two Group 3’s and a Group 1 and he beat the subsequent Guineas winner. That is pretty top class form no? Karakontie did run poorly last time but it is notable that he runs in the 7f Foret next week so probably safe to assume he didn’t get home.
Anyway you are right that he has plenty to prove and that his bare form leaves him plenty to find as well. But the visual impression this horse makes tells me we haven’t seen anywhere near the best of him yet and, if Benoist times it right, I think you are going to see a special winner.
These group 1 races and Guineas’ are won every year but we all know that some years there are better winners than others. Looking at Karakontie, he probably didn’t get home in the French Derby but going into the race he was a 6/1 shot and I doubt he’d have gone off that big if they had thought he was a good, let alone great, Guineas winner. I seriously doubt he would have finished close to the first three at Newmarket had he contested that race.
Apparently there was some rain yesterday and this has boosted the confidence of the Treve camp. I reckon we will see a few candidates disappear from the race over the next few days and I expect that Treve will be nibbled in, whether by genuine money or in a tactical move to squeeze more cash out of her by making it look like somebody knows something. It’s not hard to imagine some punters looking at her odds on Saturday and Sunday before saying "Too big a price for last year’s winner"
Taghrooda is surprisingly steady and just shading general favouritism for the race after seemingly having been holed below the waterline by losing her unbeaten record. I am on her at 14/1 and 10/1 and hoping that Tapestry/Taghrooda was a replay of the scenario with Milligram/Miesque, that left me stunned for a fortnight back in 1987
Bon Chance, Sacre Blue, Pommes De Terre et Menage a trois
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Joni takes it surprisingly well in the circumstances:-
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=eggs+ … B500%3B434
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Brilliant Stevie!!
Come on – didn’t I say we would be celebrating a spectacular winner donned in Qatari silks?!!! Just got the wrong horse.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!! Brilliant Stevie!!
Come on – didn’t I say we would be celebrating a spectacular winner donned in Qatari silks?!!! Just got the wrong horse.
We all get it wrong, that’s the great leveller the game can be. I was totally wrong about Treve but would do the same again presented with a similar scenario.
Ectot’s old mate Karakontie ran like a drain in the Foret behind Olympic Glory and perhaps if we had seen that before the Arc enthusiasm for Ectot might have been subdued a bit.
Ectot just never picked up today, perhaps he bounced to some extent, perhaps he doesn’t fully get the trip in this grade or perhaps he just isn’t as good as thought.
C’est La Vie.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Can’t believe it. This horse was my wonder-horse a couple of years ago. I was sure he was the next big thing after he won his Arc trial in a canter. He then made me look an idiot in his next few races as flop followed flop. I thought we’d seen the last of him after he was beaten out of sight in a Group 2 last year but low and behold I see he has popped up today and slaughtered Flintshire by 5 lengths in a Grade 1 at Belmont Park!! I KNEW that bloody horse was good! I wonder if it is Lasix that has made the difference as he had started to look like there was something wrong. Anyway, will be interesting to see how he goes now.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I thought everyone knew that Flintshire isn’t the same horse on soft ground. Consequently, it was almost certainly a four-horse Grade 1 that didn’t take much winning.
Interesting to see whether he progresses. Definitely a horse that looked a potential superstar but went backwards for whatever reason.
I thought everyone knew that Flintshire isn’t the same horse on soft ground. Consequently, it was almost certainly a four-horse Grade 1 that didn’t take much winning.
I always like waking up to a nice Stilvi ballon-burst on a Sunday morning 🙂
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
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