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Echo Of Light

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  • #5012
    paulostermeyer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4613

    I ventured to York today wondering which Echo of Light would turn up.

    After the race I was asking myself why I did not have the nerve to lump on even more than I did.

    As soon as I saw him in the parade ring it was clear the relaxed ego had turned and Frankie took him down early and easily to the start.

    The rest, as they say, is history as he smashed the eight year old course record in the process. To put this in context there was also a reasonably strong headwind in the home straight – it would be interesting to see if there were any sectional times available as it looked, on first impression, to be a stadily run race.

    Will I back him next time – not before I see him in the parade ring first – I still don’t trust the beast.

    #113721
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    In my opinion, as much a factor as whatever he’s like in the parade ring is what happens in the race itself. Given an easy lead where he bully inferior rivals he looks extremely good, but in bigger fields against tougher oppositions, he’s just not so effective.

    #113799
    paulostermeyer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4613

    David,

    I agree with what you say and the race was run to suit him, which suprrised me as I thought Flying Clarets was originally put in as a spoiler to force the pace.

    However I still would never considering backing him until I had seen him in the paddock and going down – he has proved he is more than capable of losing the race before it even starts.

    In terms of beating inferior rivals he can only beat what is put in front of him and in yesterdays race his time was impressive, over four seconds faster than standard in one of only two races faster than standard at the meeting.

    #113857
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Comments from connections indicate that his temperament has settled down considerably. They seem to feel the corner has been turned. Would agree with Paul that that would be the biggest factor for me.

    #113895
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    Echo of Light[/color:1f7xiial]’s record in Group 1’s (presumably with some sort of parade beforehand) is 6th of 7 (beaten 7½ lengths) Last of 15 (beaten 26 lengths) and Last of 14 (beaten 12½ lengths), but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Interestingly in the 2006 Sussex, where he wasn’t beaten so far, he was taken down to the start early, but that race was on right-handed, undulating track and on fast ground. Before that, he was set alight by Ted Durcan as a pacemaker for Layman in the 2005 Champion Stakes at Newmarket and predictably weakened late on after showing good speed. And the last G1 was 2006 the Breeders Cup Mile, run on firm ground at Churchill Downs, parade and all.

    It is relevant to consider that he doesn’t favour going right-handed and also, he is a big horse and hits the ground hard so I wouldn’t think he is happiest on firm ground. I’m not certain that he has to lead either – he didn’t at Longchamp last autumn and still won a good race despite veering left late on (and going right-handed!).

    I don’t think he is unpredictable, quite the opposite in fact. At anywhere between 1m to 1m2f going left handed and a flat track, with good/good to soft ground his record is pretty flawless. I would say he is right out of the top drawer in those conditions and i’m just hoping he gets another shot at the top level in circumstances that suit him.

    If he were mine, as a Dubai Millenium, I would train him for the Dubai World Cup, and I am sure Sheikh Mohammed could have a word and get the parade skipped, but then I know nothing about training horses.

    #113922
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 897

    I ventured to York today wondering which Echo of Light would turn up.

    The rest, as they say, is history as he smashed the eight year old course record in the process. To put this in context there was also a reasonably strong headwind in the home straight – it would be interesting to see if there were any sectional times available as it looked, on first impression, to be a stadily run race.

    Will I back him next time – not before I see him in the parade ring first – I still don’t trust the beast.

    Paul,

    The sectionals of EOL confirm your view:

    Start – 7f: 25.06
    7-6: 11.86
    6-5: 11.15
    5-4: 12.86 (home bend)
    3-2: 11.26
    2-1: 11.81
    1-WP: 11.98

    The race was advertised as 1m208y but the stalls were placed at 9f 4 yards. My total timing was 106.92 as compared to official 106.76.

    FD rode a masterclass in even pace and EOL was still not stopping at the end, and took some pulling up.

    #113946
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5124

    I find it interesting that those sectionals are so even despite the wind being a fresh NW i.e roughly half tail down the back and half head in the straight.

    Or is it only full tail/head winds that markedly influence time performances?

    #113980
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 897

    I find it interesting that those sectionals are so even despite the wind being a fresh NW i.e roughly half tail down the back and half head in the straight.

    Or is it only full tail/head winds that markedly influence time performances?

    Drone,

    As regards head, tail, cross winds their effect is not at all linear.
    If the effect of a steady, fresh force tail wind is 1, say, then a cross tail wind is 2, a cross head wind would be 7 and a full on head wind 9.

    However, the energy being recovered each stride by the firm going is of an order 4 times that which is lost to a full fresh headwind (9). Only if a horse cannot produce energy in excess of the net demands is it forced to slow. On fast going, wind is of relatively small importance, as EoL showed. On dead going (nil recovery) or worse, however, it becomes of significant importance and a horse already tiring and facing a home run head wind (full or cross) in that ground will markedly slow.

    #113996
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5124

    Thanks Robert

    I’ve long thought the effect of wind has been underestimated by time analysts (with the exception of Timeform) but must admit the going/wind correlation had not occurred to me, or at most I didn’t think it of importance.

    The phrase ‘not at all linear’ is a tad disconcerting as would I be right in thinking that a heady combination of Trigonometry, Vector Analysis and Differential Calculus will need to be employed to arrive at a robust going/wind correction?

    #114096
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 897

    Thanks Robert

    I’ve long thought the effect of wind has been underestimated by time analysts (with the exception of Timeform) but must admit the going/wind correlation had not occurred to me, or at most I didn’t think it of importance.

    The phrase ‘not at all linear’ is a tad disconcerting as would I be right in thinking that a heady combination of Trigonometry, Vector Analysis and Differential Calculus will need to be employed to arrive at a robust going/wind correction?

    You are welcome Drone,

    A little bit of trigonometry for the course layout and orientation; vector analysis bit is just finding the component of a cross wind or change of direction around the course that is equivalent to a head/tail wind; allowance for wind shielding by buildings and trees; no calculus but you do need to also know the drag force on a horse, plus its energy production levels wrt the going and distance.

    #114098
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    A little bit of trigonometry for the course layout and orientation; vector analysis bit is just finding the component of a cross wind or change of direction around the course that is equivalent to a head/tail wind; allowance for wind shielding by buildings and trees; no calculus but you do need to also know the drag force on a horse, plus its energy production levels wrt the going and distance.

    gotcha

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