August 23, 2007 at 10:37 #4919SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
More excellent competitive racing at York today and another difficult one for picking winners imo.
The Lowther stakes at 2:05 is a race to watch rather than bet on for me.
The one mile hcap at 2:35 may not be as difficult as it looks…….but it’s still not easy. Smart Enough improved a lot last season and could be good enough to win this but has been off the course for nearly a year. Fremen may be too high in the weights now and I think one of the improving 3yo’s is likely to win this. The favorite is The Illies who has gone up quite a lot in the hcap for his win at Ascot. The consistent Docofthebay is also up in the hcap but could be still improving. The one I like is We’ll Come who was a beaten odds on fav last time but that race may be better than it looked and he was carrying top weight which is never easy at Newmarket. May prefer the slightly easier going here and has the beating of The Illies on previous running.
Tom Segal of Pricewise is a better judge than I’ll ever be so I always feel a bit more optimistic when I fancy one of his choices and Magnus in the 3:10 looks to have a good chance on the form of his 5f Ascot run and he he should like this track and may be well drawn. Dandy Man has a favorite’s chance but I just wonder whether the ground will be fast enough for him.
The closing hcap at 5:00 is an open looking 3yo hcap with lots of improving horses. I’ll bet on two horses — Spanish Hidalgo who was staying on his previous run over 12f at Goodwood and has been lightly raced this season. Trainer John Dunlop does well with this type of horse. I’ll also go for Speed Gifted from the in very much form Luca Cumani stable. Lightly raced and should improve further for the step up in trip.
Good luck to all.August 23, 2007 at 11:13 #112263non vintageMember
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3:10 York (Nunthorpe)
Being a bit of a speed-figure slave, I’m drawn towards taking a chance on KINGSGATE NATIVE[/color:obl931aj] today, given that this juvenile has bounced in two very smart performances (both on the clock and visually) and seems to have a favourable draw.
Obviously, even with a massive weight allowance, the hustle and bustle of a contest like this and the basic speed of some of these experienced sprinters will require a smart performance, but 12/1+ makes him look a reasonably tempting proposition.
I’ll be chucking a bit on him to win, and making him the banker in some small-stake exotics along with the four rivals I think are the biggest dangers, namely Dandy Man (drying ground should help), Magnus (sound claims as already mentioned by Swallow), Red Clubs (decent form and might click over 5f one day), and Amadeus Wolf (conditions right for a return to form). Curiously, Amadeus Wolf has beaten Red Clubs into second in three separate races!
Other than this, I’ll be risking nothing more than a little (48 x 10p) placepot with Kingsgate Native as the banker leg by way of an each-way investment…
R1 : (19)Gypsy Baby, (20)Johar Jamal[/color:obl931aj]
R2 : (4)Fleeting Spirit, (6)Nahoodh[/color:obl931aj]
R3 : (9)Benandonner, (19)The Illies[/color:obl931aj]
R4 : (18)Kingsgate Native[/color:obl931aj]
R5 : (5)Azarole, (13)Somnus[/color:obl931aj]
R6 : (3)Guilia, (6)Wannabe Posh, (7)Brisk Breeze[/color:obl931aj]August 23, 2007 at 15:43 #112287SwallowCottageMember
- Total Posts 1008
Great call with Kingsgate Native NV – and good luck with the rest of your placepot picks.August 23, 2007 at 16:02 #112291non vintageMember
- Total Posts 1268
Thanks Swallow – feel a bit unfortunate to get 3rd/4th but not 2nd, but that would have been the icing and it’s nice enough to get a decent winner.
Unfortunately, the placepot died in the 5th leg, although the favourites have all been managing to make the places so it doesn’t look like it will be much of a payer anyway!August 23, 2007 at 16:16 #112294MikkyMo73Member
- Total Posts 1789
Yes great shout NV with Kingsgaite Native.
I fancied him a little myself, in fact after his debut run at Ascot I claimed he was the fastest juvenile of the season, and I think that comment could well be justified now.
As for the placepot, I still have a Ã‚Â£6 line going and I have selected the first 2 in the betting in the last. If both get placed the pot will pay about Ã‚Â£10-11 , but I will have it to Ã‚Â£12 meaning about a Ã‚Â£70 profit. If only one gets placed, it will pay about Ã‚Â£20 so I should make the same profit.
MikeAugust 23, 2007 at 18:43 #112330RockytonyMember
- Total Posts 96
Thanks for the tip on Kingsgaite Native non vintage, I also had a couple of quid on Desert Lord e/w, nothing better then to see your picks come in first and second Thanks
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