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I’ve been looking at the major summer races still to go this season and I am pretty sure that they are the easiest to call in my 4 year racing history!
Maybe it’s the hops based beverages talking (I live 1.5miles from Hoylake and it’s been a week long party down here) but I think I have 3 races sussed:
King George
Heart’s Cry is the one for me, 12f group one in Japan and Dubai, goes well fresh and each way steal at 4s<br>Has Hurricane improved since last year?
Sussex Stakes
Araafa looks nailed on<br>Jeremy is threat…
Nunthorpe
Dandy Man, backed him at 40s for Palace House (albeit at small stakes), best 5f sprinter in UK & Ireland (Benbaun being no.2) and providing no other int’l horses run he’s my nap of the decade.
Also throw into this Deep Impact for the Arc and I may just have retired at 23 come October 1st.
Aim for the stars and you may reach the sky………<br>
Ha ha ha, that’s the beauty of racing isn’t it? All looks so easy and so certain …………., barely ever works out that way.
Only needs a few thunderstorms, a few heavy downpours and the going to turn to the soft side of good and the form will be all over the place. ;)
Forgive me for looking like a yes man but I definitely agree with the first three. I am not a fan of Hurricane Run (it doesn’t take a genius to work that one out either) and I think he will have a disappointing campaign this year. Electrocutionist should have come on for his last run but I’m not totally convinced about 12f and I think Heart’s Cry will be too good. It will be interesting to see what happens to Deep Impact’s price if HC wins as Deep Impact looks like a serious horse.
Araafa looks safe and has been well supported though a couple of big guns could bustle him up a bit. The Dandy Man has been superb this year and the far side at Ascot was riding at least 10lb slower going on the results of the big sprints.
The Arc could be between the older horses this year and I’ve got it between Shirocco, Deep Impact and Rail Link. The latter is value as DI is still no certainty to show up in my opinion.
- Total Posts 17716
Quote: from ToneLoc on 10:07 pm on July 20, 2006[br]I’ve been looking at the major summer races still to go this season and I am pretty sure that they are the easiest to call in my 4 year racing history!
Maybe it’s the hops based beverages talking (I live 1.5miles from Hoylake and it’s been a week long party down here) but I think I have 3 races sussed:
King George
Heart’s Cry is the one for me, 12f group one in Japan and Dubai, goes well fresh and each way steal at 4s<br>Has Hurricane improved since last year?
Sussex Stakes
Araafa looks nailed on<br>Jeremy is threat…
Nunthorpe
Dandy Man, backed him at 40s for Palace House (albeit at small stakes), best 5f sprinter in UK & Ireland (Benbaun being no.2) and providing no other int’l horses run he’s my nap of the decade.
Also throw into this Deep Impact for the Arc and I may just have retired at 23 come October 1st.
Aim for the stars and you may reach the sky………
<br>Toneloc<br> You would have to place a whole lot of faith in the draw to see Dandy Man beating Takeover Target?
Reet Hard I agree with ToneLoc if they are drawn next to each other i would be extremely confident that The Dandy Man would win.
Not just the draw Reet, Dandy Man has been improving all season whereas Takeover Target has little improvement left at his age (I know sprinters can improve as they get older but if you look at the Group 1 sprints here over the last 10 years there have been few 6yo+ winners, but Les Arcs isn’t helping!). This allied to the draw would make Dandy v. difficult to oppose in my opinion.
At 5f the best horses in UK & Ireland are Dandy Man, followed by Benbaun. Opposed Benbaun at Sandown because it is all uphill there and doesn’t favour true 5f horses.
I wouldn’t mind having a bit of that forecast.
As for the King George, I would lay Electrocutionist all day as don’t think he’s a 12f Group 1 horse. He won an Italian Group 3 over the trip but didn’t look to have stayed at Woodbine over 12f in a Group 1. Looks like a match between Hurricane and Heart’s Cry (assuming Dylan doesn’t run + he’d have a better chance in the Irish Champion imo) and the difference in price is not a true reflection of their chances.
Araafa has ticks in all the right boxes, I don’t know where to start opposing this one. If someone could let me know why they think he’ll get beaten I’d appreciate it (providing he runs to form), always good to hear things from a different angle.
I have settled on the treble as I can’t have anything in Arc until I know who the best French 3yo is and at this stage I don’t know.
- Total Posts 17716
FSL
I hope a lot of others think so too.;) <br> Had the draw been the factor so many thought it was at Ascot, would you not have expected such as La Cucaracha, The Tatling, and Tax Free,(All close up behind Dandy Man on the far side), to have performed better than they did subsequently?<br>Imo, there are sound reasons for thinking that Takeover Target is better over 5f than 6 on English terrain, and, even on a line through Benbaum, Dandy Man has the best part of 10lbs to find!
<br>I heard that Takeover Target was heading to Japan rather than taking in the Nunthorpe.
Quote: from ToneLoc on 10:07 pm on July 20, 2006[br]I’ve been looking at the major summer races still to go this season and I am pretty sure that they are the easiest to call in my 4 year racing history!
Maybe it’s the hops based beverages talking (I live 1.5miles from Hoylake and it’s been a week long party down here) but I think I have 3 races sussed:
King George
Heart’s Cry is the one for me, 12f group one in Japan and Dubai, goes well fresh and each way steal at 4s<br>Has Hurricane improved since last year?
Sussex Stakes
Araafa looks nailed on<br>Jeremy is threat…
Nunthorpe
Dandy Man, backed him at 40s for Palace House (albeit at small stakes), best 5f sprinter in UK & Ireland (Benbaun being no.2) and providing no other int’l horses run he’s my nap of the decade.
Also throw into this Deep Impact for the Arc and I may just have retired at 23 come October 1st.
Aim for the stars and you may reach the sky………
Its a statistical fact that most people are wrong about most things here, most of the time….even the more successful punters. Its just the nature of the game.
I wouldnt back any of these at current odds. I dont disagree with anything you say but I feel that the Japanese horses are a long way from home and I hate backing sprinters. Ill wait and see what turns up to take on Aarafa.
SHL
Quote: from ToneLoc on 9:22 am on July 21, 2006[br]As for the King George, I would lay Electrocutionist all day as don’t think he’s a 12f Group 1 horse. He won an Italian Group 3 over the trip but didn’t look to have stayed at Woodbine over 12f in a Group 1.<br>
For what it’s worth, I am utterly convinced that Electrocutionist is a 12f horse. Maybe it was the yielding ground at Woodbine, or the extensive travelling that undid him. Still, this is all about opinions and is what makes racing (and betfair!) so enjoyable!
Good luck with the treble…
Just come back from Hoylake having taken 2.16 on Woods at 11am, fantastic day.
My views regarding the treble have been reinforced by news of Heart’s Cry’s and Araafa’s gallops. Really looking forward to this saturday, one of the 3 best races in the flat calendar imo.<br>
- Total Posts 438
Quote: from ToneLoc on 9:22 am on July 21, 2006[br]If someone could let me know why they think he’ll get beaten I’d appreciate it (providing he runs to form), always good to hear things from a different angle.<br>
<br>Araafa is an improving horse and his opponents seem thoroughly exposed but a word of warning: he hasn’t actually beaten anything. George Washington was clearly way below his Newmarket form in the Curragh mire, while Stormy River was set an impossible task at Ascot.
The best any of Araafa’s other victims have subsequently managed is a win in a three-horse race at Hamilton (at four to one on) for Metropolitan Man and Heliostatic’s Listed success at the Curragh.
Araafa may well win, but his price is ludicrously short.
According to the RP’s form, they’ve raced against each other 6 times:
2004:<br>Japan Cup – ZRR by ~9 lengths<br>Arima Kinen – ZRR by ~ 7 lengths
2005:<br>Takarazuka Kinen – Heart’s Cry by 1 1/4 lengths<br>Tenno Sho – ZRR by ~ 2 lengths<br>Japan Cup – Heart’s Cry by 1 3/4 lengths<br>Arima Kinen – Heart’s Cry by ~ 5 1/2 lengths
Heart’s Cry has improved greatly as he’s matured, whilst ZRR went off the boil at the end of last year. The runs in the first three 2005 races listed above suggests there’s not too much between them at their best.
Well the treble goes down at the first hurdle!
Thought Heart had it 2f out but Hurricane proved, to me at least, that he is the best turf horse in the world.
Still, Araafa and Dandy Man should save face.
Will probably go for Shirocco in the Arc now, I think Fabre aimed Hurricane at the KG knowing that he has another horse to win the Arc with and I for one will follow his judgement.
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