- This topic has 37 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Arguing is fine Stav when it’s done in a constructive fashion with both sides showing respect for the other’s viewpoint, even when they disagree with it.
It was fairly clear that no one was accusing EC of inventing statistics. I think the point being made, which I have some time for, was that EC tends to be selective in the stats he chooses to pay heed to and doesn’t respond particularly well when others disrupt his argument by inconveniently pointing out potential flaws. ÂÂÂ
EC – I apologised to Wallace not on your behalf, I’ll leave it up to you to decide if you want to do that, but on behalf of the forum as I was disappointed that, having taken the trouble to present an alternative viewpoint, he was met with a fairly rude response, IMO.<br>If you think my apology was condescending you want to perhaps re-read the posts you made in response to Wallace’s comments and behave.<br>
Lots of jockeys would have given up once OB went past. Fallon didn’t, and I’ve seen him do this time and time again. The sooner he’s back, the better.<br>
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains
I've walked and I crawled on six crooked highwaysIt’s always going to be difficult proving the effectiveness(or not) of jockeyship. We can look at statistics, as some have done, but results are usually inconclusive.
If you take winners/rides as a percentage, it often tells you more about the quality of horses ridden than jockey ability.
Using returns to a £1 level stake doesn’t help very much because the ‘best’ jockeys are invariably overbet.
Some research has been done on how different jockeys fare on horses with roughly similar ratings. Perhaps this is what Wallace has done and found no evidence that top jockeys are that far apart in ability given the same horses to ride.
An alternative approach would be to ask trainers if they thought there was much difference between the top riders. They are arguably in the best position to judge the relative merits of jockeys. I suspect that they would identify the very top jockeys as being special and acknowledge that there is quite a gap between these and the lesser lights.
As in any sphere of sport, I believe there is a range of ability between the best, the very good and the capable jockey, but not a great deal of difference in each class.
John Whitley. of Racing Research, produces jockey ratings in his Flat and Jumps annuals each year which have an excellent record for pinpointing talent – or lack of it – early in a jockey’s career. He assesses how horses have performed for different riders, and expresses the result in pounds, or rather, tenths of a pound. There is usually about 5 or 6lb between the very best and the very worst.
Fallon was at the top of the list, or very close to it, from the moment he arrived in Britain.
By the way the guys laying KF horses made a loss.
hurray..someone else can see the flaw in the case against Fallon. …nice one BC.
<br>This quote us rubbish simply because you have no idea what the charges are and even less information regarding the details of the case
We are guessing a little bit too much :)
This has been done to death now anyway and no im not coming round :biggrin: <br>
Talking about the race, I thought Spencer went too early (he was carrying the last leg of my accy so I would) OB obviously had the turn of foot over DT but couldn’t sustain it.. If he’d waited then he would have won, however, In Spencer’s defence as someone else pointed out he was perhaps worried about’s AG’s turn of foot and thought it best to go.. Given the rail I think she would have won.. But once again Fallon proves how good he is.. I backed DT at York and was extremely disappointed given that he was probably the best 1m4f 3yo (along with SP).. Leads me to wonder how effective Mick Kinane is because DT got well stuffed at York..
Either that or Notnowcato is a much better horse than I thought
Aragorn,
Do you not think the ground, rather than Mick Kinane, could have been the reason for DT’s disappointing run at York?<br>
Yeah possibly but the ground was good to soft at the curragh.. Fallon had him right in the box seat all the way round that day whereas Kinane seemed content to sit a little bit off the pace.. A mile and a half horse in a 10f race you’d keep him right up with the pace if not leading as thats how he’d won all of his previous races.
Cherry Mix did however go off hard that day so perhaps he thought it best to sit off.. It’s difficult to argue conclusively. I would have given the ride to Murtagh at York anyway considering he almost won the Derby on him. I want to see Sir Percy run against the older horses now..
whereas Kinane seemed content to sit a little bit off the pace.. A mile and a half horse in a 10f race you’d keep him right up with the pace
And York, for whatever reason, is not the easiest track to pick up from off the pace
Notnowcato<br>tracked leaders, headway 3f out, led 2f out, soon ridden, driven inside final furlong, headed last 100yds, rallied to lead on line <br> <br>Maraahel<br>held up, pushed along and headway 3f out, ridden to challenge inside final furlong, driven to lead last 100yds, headed on line <br> <br>Blue Monday<br>tracked leading pair, headway over 2f out, soon ridden and kept on same pace final furlong <br> <br>Dylan Thomas<br>tracked leaders, effort on outer over 2f out, soon ridden and beaten
<br>Seems like DT was ridden in a similar manner to those that beat him to me.
There is no doubt that a jockey’s strength must start to diminish after he passes his peak in his early thirties, but it need only be a gradual process provided he keeps himself fit. This diminuation can be more than offset by experience up to the early forties: beyond that the decline accelerates and even ‘ring craft’ is unable to compensate, save in a few exceptional cases.
I think Mick Kinane is a very good jockey indeed and has been one of the best we have seen over the last twenty years. Certainly, his best years are behind him, but I wouldn,t write him off just yet. He is still first choice for Michael Stoute and Aidan O’Brien in the absence of Fallon, which says it all.
Just seen the race for the first time and just wonder whether exertions had caught up with OB a little.
Clive a serious question…..has Ouija Board ever been beaten on merit simply by a better horse without excuses? The RPR have given her her highest rating ever for her Irish Champion run.
Kinane could not get Dylan to settle at York, he is not strong enough nowadays
Clearly DT was a different horse to the one at York. He was coming back after a break at York so he was always going to be fresher than on Saturday and on Saturday they went a decent gallop.
Clive a serious question…..has Ouija Board ever been beaten on merit simply by a better horse without excuses? The RPR have given her her highest rating ever for her Irish Champion run.
no!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.