Dutchmans’ descendant

[johngringo]

This is not VDW, but fruit does not fall far from the branch. Neither is this a system but as we have to wear a yellow star on our uniform I shall post it here.

On Saturday I was interested in a horse called Tropical Strait who was due to run in the 220 Ascot. He was withdrawn but had an entry for Mondays 410 Ling. However he’s not been entered for this either so end of story. However I decided to have a look for a possible reason why this option has been spurned. I think I may have found one.

Whilst this is not the way I normally work, it is closely related to it, in that for me the OR is a simply wonderful gauge of class.

A 100 rated sprinter has the ability to be a good C2 handicapper. A 100 rated stayer also has the ability to be in the finish of C2 handicaps. But such is racing for some reason these horses never meet.

Why?

The answer is obvious, in that a 100 rated sprinter is just that a sprinter. Over 12f he may well only be able to compete with horses rated 50 in C6 selling handicaps. And vice versa with the stayer.

However what would you think about a 3yo horse that was bred to be a genuine stayer but that had v recently been competative in a mile race with a horse that has just won a 8f C2 hcp at a grade 1 course and is currently rated 94?

There is a good chance that our stayer to be, who can mix it up with a genuine C2 hcp miler, is going to be even better when allowed to run a further half mile.

Double Doors 3yo c, 410L, trained by J H M Gosden, has Grand Lodge as his sire and Saddlers Wells as his damsire so has stayer stamped all over him.

Currently only rated 83 he is bottom weight in this C3 hcp running with his lowest ever racing weight. He has been upped in class after his win lto in a C4 12f turf hcp. Besides the favourable sire stats the trainer and jockey ones are just as favourable, but the killer for me was Double Doors’ second ever run (sand debut) on the 8th August over a mile at Kempton.

In that race 68 days ago he came half a length second to the 3yo Godolphin colt Amarna, Thursdays C2 8f hcp winner at York.

Amarna is currently rated 94.

If Double Doors is just as classy at 12f as Amarna is at a mile he is going to win today.

[L33]

John,

A nice piece – there’s logic in your assessment, and I believe that he could win this easily.

However, I can’t back him on his own. A couple of factors why, but perhaps If this was on turf it would be a different matter, but that’s a pointless statement because it’s not.

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