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Markab is a favorite horse of mine but there is no way on earth I’d back him here. Rain softened ground and a penalty to carry on seasonal debut against some very good horses. Should be double figures.
Being drawn on the rail (1, 2 or 3) is a big advantage with ngi priced placed horses over the years and all the horses in those stalls are big prices this year. Hamish McGonagall would be my pick for a place from those three.
The two I like most though are Regal Parade and Dalghar. Regal Parade put in a below par performance here in Ireland on debut but 7f in heavy was too much for him and a return to his ideal conditions will suit – particularly with a pipe opener under his belt. Group 1 winner under likely conditions and runs without any penalty. He’s drawn very wide which is a negative but thats not as big a concern as a weight penalty would be. Dandy Nichols form is a big plus too.
Dalghar is also proven on ground with give in it and against a very smart performer in Lady Of The Desert. He is likely to pick up a Group 1 somewhere and drawn 7 here should be clear favorite to take this Group 2.
Genki is short enough but can’t be ruled out with a rating of 111 along with Delegator (112) dropping back to sprint distances. Delegator has 221 form figures for seasonal debut and if you can invisage him travelling smoothly off the pace set by Rose Blossom he must have a chance but the trip is not certain to suit. Maybe the ground gives him more of a chance?
Ladies Are Forever looked to be travelling best for a short time in the Nell Gwyn about 1.5f out but found little as stamina seemed to keep her from going on. She could be a real player getting tonnes of weight all round but her strength may not see her perform at the required level for this race.
Past winners with SPs of 14/1, 25/1, 14/1, 25/1, 16/1 and 20/1 in the last 10 years make looking for an outsider attractive and a small interest in one of those could pay dividends.
Edited to embold Delegator
Just done a write up of the race on my blog. Regal Parade is the main pick, with the main danger being Delegator, who goes well when fresh.
Just done a write up of the race on my blog. Regal Parade is the main pick, with the main danger being Delegator, who goes well when fresh.
Your ruling out Markab because of his
age
? Theres much better reasons than his age.
9yo – 2nd(1/2l) – 2001
9yo – 2nd(nck) – 2006145 runners in 10 years
13 8yo+ last 10 years
7 unique runners in 10 yearsOnly 1 of those runners won anything above a G3 – Dandy Nichols Bahamian Pirate who won a 5f G1 on Soft ground at Ascot the following year to his first appearance in the Duke Of York as a 9yo.
I looked all this up for my own interest not to rag on your blog although it is perplexing that you’d rule out a lto G1 winner because he is 8yo.
Lovely little race this. Always throws up 3 sprinters you can completely ignore for the rest of the season. Very rarely do any of the top 3 go on to do something later on in the season, especially the winner. Quite why trainers want to ready their Group 1/2 sprinters so early on in the season is beyond me. No coincidence that the 2 Golden Jubilee winners to run in this race over the past 12 years finished 13th and 5th.
Of the last 11 Duke of York winners, collectively they made 48 subsequent starts in the same season. Of those 48, just 2 were victorious. Invincible Spirit winning the Haydock Sprint Cup at 25/1 by a short head and Utmost Respect winning a 6f Group 3 at The Curragh at evens.
Really great preview, Nulty. It’s really not a race I care a great deal about, though I wouldn’t expect much from Delegator. He looks completely tripless and he’s just a frustrating animal. Of his 3 victories, 2 were at odds-on. He’s never raced at shorter than 7f and Bin Suroor runners, with the exception of the superbly ridden Badeel, have been running like dogs.
Andrew Balding horses have been badly needing their first outings, so I’d be surprised if Dalghar won. Chiberta King, who was 112 when fresh, and I Love Me, who won a Sales race on her racecourse debut, both looked extremely unfit at Newmarket last week.
Triple Aspect has always threatened to be a decent sprinter when upped in trip to 6f. I’d have thought that Regal Parade would want a stiffer trip than this and a flat 6f isn’t going to test anyone’s stamina.
If I were to punt on anybody, I’d probably back Inler. Brian Meehan’s going to have an amazing summer. His horses are nowhere near fit first time out and they’re all going to come on so much for the run. He’s always threatened to be a decent animal over this trip and ran a decent race last time out and was actually last off the bridle.
Thanks Zarkava. I’m impressed by the stats about the winners of this race for the rest of the season. Although I would imagine that ones that win it are not good enough to win a G1 anyway, they are forced to contest them for the rest of the season after picking up a G2 penalty. (They do pick up a penalty don’t they?) They put them selves in a difficult position for the whole season.
It would only really suit Regal Parade, Dalghar and Markab to win the race because they plan to race in G1s later with a real chance of winning one – the rest are hoping for an under tarriff G1 walkover
Its not a race I like to get particularly excited about but I will very much enjoy watching it. Its harrowing to hear your estimation of Dalghars likely performance (which makes sense) and unfortunate that I’ve backed him…
I think it will be more a test of stamina with a confirmed trail blazer in Rose Blossom to take them along – shes one I will follow for the season (provided she doesn’t win!). She has G1 potential but Fast front running ground will see her under optimum conditions – Epsom. Maybe she doesn’t have the toe over 5f…?
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Dual gp1 winner with his ideal conditions, no penalty, 6lb ahead of the field on ratings and already had a prep race – Hill’s 7/1 is far too big for Regal Parade, despite what the stats say.
I’m willing to give Triple Aspect a final opportunity (for me) at Pattern level at the prices, 20/1 seems more than fair to me.
1) Ground should be ideal.
2) Should be fit from a decent effort in Dubai in a much better race (over what is in my opinion an inadequate trip).
3) Hence, a step back up to 6f is surely ideal.
4) Rose Blossom sure to go a good clip which will hopefully suit a late closer such as Triple Aspect.
5) Ryan Moore in the plate.2 pts e/w.
Ladies Are Forever.
– Very good 2yo, third to Maqaassid at Royal Ascot, before winning a good race at Redcar.
– Encouraging reappearance in the Nell Gwyn, cruised up to look a likely winner, before failing to stay. The winner and Maqaassid both ran well in the 1,000 Guineas, so the form looks tidy.
– Trip will suit and gets loads of weightObvious negative of being a 3yo in a sprint against the older horses, but at 20/1, she’s definitely my pick. Looks a really good race.
GL.
Been waiting for
Delegator
to run back at 6f.
Myself and TAPK backed him ante-post for last year’s Golden Jubilee. Fact is he barely gets home at a mile and has enough speed for this (particularly visored). Just hope Frankie keeps him fairly handy, as York tends to favour prominent runners. Bin Surror showing a few signs of coming to form and Delegator usually runs well fresh anyway.
I’ve also backed
Rain Delayed
who came from too far back in the Palace House and improving.
Saved on Dalghar (hope Andrew Balding can keep his temperament in check) and Rose Blossom (goes well here and has blinding speed), both prominent runners.
Value Is EverythingThey must have gone some pace upfront. Regal Parade was off the bridle after 2 furlongs. Inler found nothing after looking good for 3f.
A great result anyway, well done to Delegator backers. Now he can remain a horse to completely avoid for the rest of the season
Was a superb run from a horse with top class form and potential.
Took 20/1 after the line for the Golden Jubilee where he’ll have an outstanding chance, imo.Looking at the bare result now, I’d say you can be very happy if you’re a Markab fan. He may have run a tad worse than Starspangledbanner did in this last year, but last year’s race wasn’t great. He was beaten only 2L whereas Markab’s been beaten 6 1/2. Fayr Jag was beaten 21L in this before winning the Jubilee so don’t give up hope and Markab is absolutely the one I’d want to take out of the race in terms of winning at Ascot.
They went some pace up front (1st and 2nd were last and 2nd last halfway through the race and race was run in 0.42 secs faster than standard) and was heavily eased in the final 100 yards, carrying a Group 1 5lb penalty too. He was only headed inside the furlong marker and had Ladies Are Forever, Regal Parade and Prime Defender off the bridle a long way out. You can be very, very happy with that run.
If you’re a Delegator fan, I’d be very careful. I posted earlier in this thread on the fate of Duke of York winners. And their record in the Jubilee is just dire – 38680000 in the past 10 years.
Given Henry Candy’s record with sprinters, I’d say Markab is an each-way certainty.
There’s a doubt about Rocket Man turning up, while Aussie sprinters have struggled to get 6f at Ascot, so Star Witness wouldn’t be a huge concern. Lady of the Desert looks like prepping in the Temple Stakes and would be my prime concern at this stage, Dream Ahead won’t get his ground, Overdose isn’t entered and I can’t see much else to be concerned about.
Just not your usual type winning this event tho is he? But for a horse of a lifetime he’d be a classic winning miler who has been aimed at group 1 6f races for over a year, with niggling problems preventing him from tackling them.
Top class ability, top class form, yet unexposed at the trip, for connections with a long-term, specific and determined plan..
I’ll be careful how much I have on him nearer the time, is all, providing all is well in the interim period. gl
Well he goes well when fresh, but is he as good when not fresh? He’s disappointed many, many times and 3 of his 5 victories have come at odds-on.
What I will say though is that he looked extremely unfit on television and should come on a bundle for the run. I’d be doubtful about the Jubilee suiting him as I think Markab will have flown by the time Dettori can get him going, but a stiffer trip like the July Cup may well suit, as would the Prix Maurice Gheest. I will say though that he has a different profile to any of the last 10-odd Jubilee winners, another thing he has in his favour.
Delegator absolutely cantered all over the field; Markab isn’t in his league.
Time will tell, first thing he has to do is stay sound!
DELEGATOR has twice finished runner-up over 1m in Group 1 company, including to Sea The Stars in the Guineasin 2009, but he´s a strong-travelling type and coped well with this first try over a sprint trip. He moved powerfully under a confident, patient ride and picked up well when produced with his chance closest to the stands´ rail. His connections said he was only around 85% ready, but this was the third season in a row in which he has made a successful reappearance, so it would be wrong to assume he will improve for the run. That said, he´s fully entitled to progress as he gains experience of sprinting. TheGolden Jubilee at Royal Ascot is the obvious next target, although that will probably require a bit more.
Markab, having his first start since winning last year´s Sprint Cup at Haydock, had a 5lb penalty to contend with and was expected to need the run. That proved the case as, after making the running he faded.
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