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This looks between three.
Saffron Beach, Mother Earth and Bashkirova.imo Not much between the three but I’ve backed Bashkirova due to trainer form and she being the improver, with savers on the other two.
Value Is EverythingThe first time cheekpieces on mother earth are a bit of a red flag for me
her two pretty lacklustre runs this season and then that would put me off
But what wins if she doesn’t?
Saffron beach has a 5lb group 1 penalty
Bashkirova is backing up quickly and in a much better race than she’s encountered before
Sibila Spain, kennela and Novemba have never run on anything like this ground
Primo Bacio has gone at the game
And thunder beauty is only rated 97
Another easy race to figure out then
Or could look at it this way:
Mother Earth’s Lockinge run was disappointing but is unpenalised for her Guineas and Rothschild Group 1’s and if (yes a fair sized IF) the cheek pieces work and ran to that form would have an excellent chance.
Saffron Beach has a Group 1 pen’ but even allowing for the pen has the best form anyway… And although Mother Earth has a 5 lb pull SB had 3 lengths to spare from the Sun Chariot.
Bashkirova is the improver and is the only one likely to improve enough to beat Saffron Beach and Mother Earth if they are at their bests.
SS and N both need to improve and yet all seemingly unlikely to be at their previous bests on this ground.
Kenella’s last run was on the same day as Modern Games win in the French Guineas and that was more like good-firm than the official good-soft. 7f on that ground was probably too fast for her and was only beaten a short neck by Mother Earth in a close finish to last year’s French Guineas. That said ME was probably a little below her very best there.
Thunder Beauty outclassed.
Primo Bacio would have a chance on her 5th in Falmouth – only a length behind Mother Earth – but has disappointed in three runs since including 7 3/4 lengths last of 6 last time out as 9/4 fav.
So what are the chances of ALL three happening, Saffron running below form, the cheek pieces not working on Mother and the race coming too soon for Bash’? One yes, possibly two, but all three? One may even run below their best and still win. imo Back one and save on the other two.
Value Is EverythingProbably a solid chance to secure a small profit yes if betting like that is your style
I wouldn’t be entirely ruling out sibila Spain though, she’s not far off on ratings really
Especially with mother earth looking regressive and bashrikova going from running against 95-100 rated fillies to running against 110+ ones
Sibila spain won her only race on better than gd to soft in france. Her breeding suggests the ground should be fine being by Frankel (his progeny have a 24% strike rate on gd to firm) out of a mare that won on gd to firm
She was only 3 lengths off the revenant on her reappearance run
Then won under a change of tactics last time coming from last in a typical jog and sprint French race
In fact I think iv talked myself into an e/w bet
Sibila Spain 15/2 e/w 3 places
I like Sibila Spain’s French form – the quicker ground the unknown factor.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Christopher Head, trainer of Sibila Spain
I think it’s going to be a nice race, we won’t have any excuse for being boxed in and we’ll be able to ride her for herself. I’m expecting a very good performance. I feel like I have her in better form than ever, maybe because she had an easier race last time when coming from behind. She’s really well. This race has been the plan since the winter.Trainer sounds hopeful, sounds like this has been her target for some time
The race on good also beat racing post standard, FF; so you’re right not to dismiss her. Not sure the last time out victory was that slowly run though. If it was then they must have got going some way out for the leading pair to finish last and second last. She’d certainly be the biggest danger to my three.
Value Is EverythingIt’s all about the price for me.
I won’t take 11/10 Bay Bridge in the PoW on this ground, but this French filly is 15/2.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"…In fact you’ve convinced me FF.
Have now laid my Mother Earth saver back and replaced it with a wager on Sibila Spain to win half the amount I would on Bashkirova, now with just one saver Saffron Beach.Value Is Everythinglol
You’ve made a good point which I’ve investigated and agreed on, FF.
I’ll often change my bets according to what I know at the time.
Me winning or losing is all up to me.
Value Is EverythingOK, I’ve got a bonkers theory…
09/06/22 Thunder Star wins at 18/1
14/06/22 Quiet Thunder wins at 50/1
15/06/22 Thunder Beauty???All three horses are number 8.
They say things happen in threes
It’s some tribute to Aidan O’Brien and perhaps flat racing in general now that Mother Earth has had 20 runs already and it is of course early in just her third season. Needless to say it will take 50 years for Constitution hill to have that many runs
Don’t like the cheek pieces though and perhaps she needs softer ground
Mother Earth possibly doesn’t go on very firm but two of her best performances – 1000 Guineas victory and Falmouth second were on “Good-firm”, Clive.
Value Is EverythingI think Mother Earth is pretty exposed for a Coolmore horse. 20 starts from 2-4 years and that’s why I don’t think there will be more improvement in her. But she might not need any of that to win this race.
Sibila Spain has solid French form and the German 1,000 Guineas winner of 2021 – Novemba – was a creditable 4th in last years Coronation Stakes. However, I don’t know anything about her jockey and backing German horses over here is something I rarely do.
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