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Thanks for the insight Presto. You seem to know plenty about these international horses. Are you based in or near HK? Any other races you can make out?
Musir was beaten by Twice Over (despite a wide draw) recently so I suppose that’s why he’s long odds.
However, I must say this race looks more and more difficult as we approach the off. As well as all the others, one could make a case for Victoire Pisa on the grounds that he is almost as good as Buena Vista but has a better draw.
I still haven’t worked out how serious an issue the draw is. There don’t seem to be any stats out there possibly because it’s a fairly new course.
I really like Cape Blanco in this. He’s beaten Twice Over the last time they met, and I can’t see what would lead to TO reversing the form. He’s a little bit underrated, but 1m2f is his ideal trip, and 5s (still available with Hills, the last time I checked) looks like a decent price for him. Fingers Crossed!
Twice Over was reportedly off-colour in the Irish Champion and RVW was ridden for place money on rain softened ground he wouldn’t have stayed on, (both subsequently confirmed by their respective trainers), and Cape Blanco made full use of his undoubted stamina to beat thin air.
In his 2 other races at the trip, Cape Blanco beat a Workforce who had slipped his bit, with the uber-modest Victor Delight within 4l, and was beaten out of sight in the Prix Du Jockey Club.
He’s overrated, rather than under, imo, and his chances of winning at 10f around Meydan’s sharp AW track are somewhere between slim and none.On that ground Twice Over had no excuses when Cape Blanco annihilated him, Cape Blanco is a fast ground horse and the ground was not to his liking, Cape Blanco is actaually very underrated imo I mean look at the prices, laughable Twice Over is 9/4 while Cape Blanco is 5’s, how can you say he is overrated when you look at the prices, he would of been in with a shout in The Arc also if that horse hadnt barged him into Paris city centre.
What I give in Twice Over’s favour is he looked impressive in his prep for this so I’d actually make him the favourite to win with CB having no experience but the prices CB is by far the value. And please with the Jockey Club, hardly none of the hold up horses made any impact on that race with how rough it was, was an absolute farce so many runners were allowed to take their chance. I feel you are being very selective (12 length remember at The Curragh concerning Victor Delight) on your criticism and the positives you downplay to the max. Cape Blanco on his day is a very serious racehorse.
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1st
– J J The Jet Plane – War Artist
2nd
– Skysurfers – I Want Revenge
3d
– Khawlay – Xin Xu Lin
4th
– Rocket Man – Kinsale King
5th
– Presvis – Wigmore Hall
6th
– Rewilding – Rulership
7th
– Twice Over – Musir (Buena Vista)
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Cape Blanco on his day is a very serious racehorse.
Which, no doubt, is why Coolmore have hived him off, along with another, also overrated by at least 7lb; Fame And Glory?
We shall see.
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I also fancy Buena Vista in the big one, after reading the comments in this thread.
There is a ‘statistical avalanche’ in favour of horses with the greatest number of prep runs on the surface and at the track and in the climate at Meydan in Dubai.
Cape Blanco has it all to do arriving there so shortly before his race. I like the horse as much as anyone but the stats say he is at a massive disadvantage.
Also froddo – be wary of Presvis who needs to come through 16 horses to get to the finishing post first. Traffic will beat him if not another horse.
I’m based in Hong Kong. I’ll post my thoughts on other races soon, but this race is incredibly strong. Dettori called it the strongest race of the night, although I think the World Cup would get my vote.
Updated the first post with more recent trainer comments in mind.
Dim Sum a bit more of an uncertainty on the surface based on his trackwork. Trainer says that Sunny King loves the surface and is the pick of the two from trackwork. Trainer gives him an "each-way chance".
The trainer of Dynamic Blitz: "I think Dynamic Blitz will be first or second".Hi guys,
Had a look at the form of the horses in this race and have to agree with reet hard, Buena Vista for me. She has produced good times over 10f on good ground compared with her opponents. Will be picking them up at the business end and 10/1 still looks decent e/w value.
- Total Posts 17716
There is a ‘statistical avalanche’ in favour of horses with the greatest number of prep runs on the surface and at the track and in the climate at Meydan in Dubai.
Cape Blanco has it all to do arriving there so shortly before his race. I like the horse as much as anyone but the stats say he is at a massive disadvantage.
Also froddo – be wary of Presvis who needs to come through 16 horses to get to the finishing post first. Traffic will beat him if not another horse.
I have a disliking for horses using late tactics on the flat, like Presvis.
Who else in the 5th ?
I see Presvis is at approx. 5 to 1, not a firm favourite. I think I ‘m going to oppose him because the crowds may also overbet on him here out of local sentiment.
Wigmore Hall maybe ?- Total Posts 17716
There is a ‘statistical avalanche’ in favour of horses with the greatest number of prep runs on the surface and at the track and in the climate at Meydan in Dubai.
Cape Blanco has it all to do arriving there so shortly before his race. I like the horse as much as anyone but the stats say he is at a massive disadvantage.
Also froddo – be wary of Presvis who needs to come through 16 horses to get to the finishing post first. Traffic will beat him if not another horse.
I have a disliking for horses using late tactics on the flat, like Presvis.
Who else in the 5th ?
I see Presvis is at approx. 5 to 1, not a firm favourite. I think I ‘m going to oppose him because the crowds may also overbet on him here out of local sentiment.
Wigmore Hall maybe ?Dubussy and Mendip for me. Debussy loves this kind of track and distance while Mendips record (although on the all weather) speaks for itself. 20’s and 10’s are both worth an each-way look.
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philiplecornu
The Arabs like to score with stable second strings a lot.
Debussy is close in the ratings to Presvis while Mendip seems to have recent form in his favour but rated a little below.
Is Frankie as good as in his "magnificent seven" years now ?A difference of 1 point in the RPR ratings scale is how many theoretical lengths ?
Over 1m 1f the theoretical difference that establishes clear and undisputed superiority of one horse over another is in my opinion 7 lengths.
Of course the winner can turn out to be a horse with 15 lengths theoretical offset, due to a number of circumstances. But if we have a difference of 7 lengths A to B, for all intends and purposes we can say that A beats B.5f is a slight query for JJ The Jet Plane, and you’d have to hope he wouldn’t hang like he did in the lead-up. I still think he should win, with Sole Power the danger. War Artist has disappointed me far too many times, and I can’t consider him over 5f. Maybe a little on horses who have shown good recent 5f form in the UAE.
I find in these World Cup races you would do alright just putting money on good-priced De Kock runners, as well as local horses with good form. That aside form from a HK perspective…
Duty Free
Beauty Flash would be nailed on for a place if the Duty Free were over a mile but the extra furlong is a query. He idles in front so his wins don’t look that impressive. There were doubts after he set the HK Mile’s dawdling pace, but his 7f win last time out over (Golden Shaheen runner) Sunny King, after a wide run, was stunning and convinced all in HK of his quality.
Wigmore Hall looks the worthy favorite after outsprinting Presvis in the lead-up, and he was first-up. Royal Bench’s HK Mile closing 2nd from last was stunning because of the excruciating slow fractions; he seems to have come right. He might be closer from the draw. Difficult to line up the form, but he could be anything at this point, so he might be some value.
Singapore’s Better Than Ever could also be anything, his jockey seems confident. He will also be prominent in the run.King Dancer’s chances in the Sheema Classic are all but gone having drawn the far outside, which is a shame because he’s one of my favorites. I might have a little on him to place. Redwood is a serious horse who should be near enough 2nd favorite. The race may not be run to suit but he has a very good turn-of-foot.
The World Cup is a tough race. Twice Over was stunning in the lead-up and looks the logical pick, but there are so many unknown factors.
There are question marks hanging over most of these, but the one I’m struggling to find one against is
Gio Ponti
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We know this is his optimum trip. He handles the synthetic surface. Travelled over and ran a fine race last year. Has a good draw and boasts high class form.
Can’t see much better form on the table than finishing second to Goldikova over an inadeqaute trip, and filling the same position behind Zenyatta in a Breeders’ Cup Classic (Twice Over third).
Cape Blanco is quite hit and miss. Travelled over to France and disappointed on two occasions and was well beaten in the King George.
Twice Over would be the one to beat if the draw had been kinder. He may have won form an unfavourable draw last time, but this is stronger.
Buena Vista also has a poor draw to overcome and is unproven on the synthetic surface. Victoire Pisa also has to prove his effectiveness on the surface, but is the stronger Japanese candidate, in my opinion.
Poet’s Voice has major question marks regarding the trip.
Gio Ponti (11/1) and Victoire Pisa (12/1).
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