- This topic has 8 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 12 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
My two Supreme Novices’ fancies are both looking likely to run in this at the weekend (Irving & First Mohican).
I can’t help but think experience will see Irving home in front but if First Mohican were to run well it could shake the front end of the Supreme market up a bit.
I’ve backed Irving so hoping he wins doing handstands, however their is a few interesting ones also entered.
As you mention First Mohican has to be feared, as does his fellow former flat runner Mijhaar who really impressed me first time out but was disapointingly beaten when falling last time out, I thought perhaps the heavy ground didn’t entirely suit but conditions likely to be the same at Kempton so maybe a negative for him.
Garde La Victoire is a good horse who is maybe just below top qualtiy, he could give the others plenty to think about. Don’t know much about the O’Neil horse Vaihau (French Import?) but couldn’t rule him out either yet.
A race i’ll watch and hope Irving wins and uses as a stepping stone to the Festival.
There is no doubting Irving is a decent animal, although I’m not tempted to have a bet on him at even money or odds on.
I would rather have a few quid on Cup final at decent odds of 9/1.On Cup Final’s last run at Taunton in November, he went off odds on against Irving, and although he was a well beaten 4lengths second that day, he finished with a nasty wound to his hind leg that has kept him off the racecourse since. It might have made no difference to the outcome, and Irving has shown improved form since with two good wins at Ascot, but with the 7lbs advantage Cup Final will have this time, I’m willing to take a chance.
He was obviously well thought of to go off such a short priced favourite that day, and if Nicky Henderson has managed to get him fit, and as he is owned by JP, I doubt he will be 9/1 at the off. The market should show his chance, but I’m hoping I’m staying ahead of any plunge by JP if they think he is well in, and taking the 9s at the moment.
Irving has the engine and cruising speed to win a Supreme but a couple of mistakes during the race that might cost him in a few weeks time – if he jumps the last two like that at Cheltenham, he’d better be 5 lengths clear
Think i’d rather be with him than Vautour though
He looks a classy animal.
His flat record (albeit at a lower level) was pretty good and he is lightly raced.
I think he has a lot of potential once his jumping gets a bit sharper. Irving looks to have a lot of speed.
Another who was impressed here, but at 7/2 joint favourite for the Supreme now with Vautour, I’d prefer the latter.
Vautour is a better jumper imo, as Steeplechasing says Irving was spring heeled at the last today but he was a bit guessy at times for me and he’ll probably need to do better to win at Cheltenham.
I also think Vautour’s form is more solid. The form of his first two runs looks good but it’s his beating of The Tullow Tank which stands out. He beat that horse easily and looked to have plenty left in the locker, and I’d consider Leopardstown a better pointer for Cheltenham winners than Kempton.
The likes of Leopardstown and Navan have really stiff finishes and I like to see Irish horses going well at those tracks with a view to Cheltenham, and Vautour has won at both.
He also looks more tactical versatile, being comfortable in front or dropped in, so he should be comfortable whatever way the race is run. It’s possible, probable even, that Irving will be even better in a fast run race (not certain there will be a fast pace in the Supreme but it will probably be quicker than today’s event), but until he runs we can’t be sure.
While Irving has a ‘could be anything’ look about him, Vautour is the more solid of the two for me.
Irving impressed despite being less than fluent at several hurdles. I like Amore Alato and he’s a fair yardstick but Irving will need to jump better to win the opener.
Perhaps because I was watching Cup Final all the way round, I have to admit I am really quite impressed by him. Don’t get me wrong, he wasn’t in the same race as Irving, but it was clear before the race from Nicky Henderson that he was no where near ready for this and needed both the race and the experience. I had hoped he might have been further on, I mentioned that the market would indicate if he was ready, but he didn’t move at all.
He was handled with kid gloves by McCoy and ran on really well at the end without being asked a serious question. I’m very tempted to have an e/w in whatever race he runs in, at the moment he is generally 40/1 in the Supreme Novices (50/1 in a place)and plenty of 50/1 about for the Neptune Novices Hurdle.
I could wait and see where he is aimed, but I’m inclined to take Betvictor’s offer of NRFB for both at 33/1 and 50/1. If he doesn’t run in either, it’s simply money in the Cheltenham bank for another race at the festival.
I would suggest watching the race again, and watch how he is handled throughout. I think this is a horse that has huge potential.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.