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Quote: from Friggo on 10:01 am on April 17, 2007[br]I’d agree with the consensus on Silver Birch, but without the hyperbole. He won’t be handicapped like that again, and I doubt the market leaders will fold so easily 2 years running.<br>
<br>I’m basically inclined to agree – it is not, after all, as if his mark is too far off his career high at present, and I think he was rated loweer when winning the Becher and Welsh National.
Then again, a soft ground National would, you’d presume, suit as least as well on previous form. In addition, they could always campaign him in those cross-country races at Cheltenham and Punchestown once again – would it be harder to justify ramping him further up the handicap for prominent showings in these, the form of which could arguably be a bit harder to equivocate than that of regular park course chases? Genuine question, no real firm idea.
Jeremy<br>(graysonscolumn)<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
Quote: from davidjohnson on 1:14 pm on April 17, 2007[br]Suggested Wichita Lineman didn’t stay at Aintree is plain nonsense. He and Massini’s Maguire went for home too soon and burnt each other out.
<br>…exactly, and in addition to which WL was done over by a masterful waiting ride by Mick Fitz on the winner (one for the People’s Republic of Cartmel, I’m delighted to note!)
gc<br>
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
I knew that would get you going JJ ;)
There was a little knocking of KS’s xmas form because of the proximity of ED. Doesnt really stand up now of course
KS’s jumping will remain a factor but it was certainly better throughout the GC than ED’s at Liverpool. I still sense the PN and RW will get to the bottom of his lapses. If any team will it will be them
Its clearly my opinion as im not mystic meg, and i do not think i am the horse racing god!<br>I apologise if you think my posts are rude, or blunt, i am just trying to express my opinion.<br>On the subject of witchita lineman, i remember jonjo say the horse could be as good as bjk! We all know how good he has turned out! lol
Dave, don’t shy away from the point. :biggrin:
The general consensus seems to be he does stay and it was a case of bad ride/good ride. I can’t believe you can think otherwise.
I haven’t read the RP comments but i’d be willing to bet they said something akin to what DJ has said. This horse will be a sun alliance/gold cup horse in the future.
PS. He couldn’t be more different to Black Jack
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Wichita Lineman stayed every inch of Cheltenham’s stiff 3m, in fact he didn’t master Black Harry, another strong stayer, until the last hurdle.<br>Aintree simply wasn’t enough of a stamina test at that level for him, none of the others were making ground on him, and the winner simply did him for toe.<br>There is no evidence on the clock that they went too fast at Aintree, the reverse if anything, WL would probably stay 4m better than 3.<br>Also, did those that maintain that Sublimity beat horses that were past their best think so before the Champion Hurdle? There is little evidence in the form book to support such a view, nor was there in the betting on the race. <br>
In defense of my first post i didn’t say Silver Birch would win but i said he may go close and i still believe that if he stays injury free and gets luck in running in next years national then he may go close again.
I can’t see Kauto Star not winning the Gold Cup next year he has seemingly got the edge over Exotic Dancer based on this seasons form a years experience isn’t going to do him any harm and although we don’t no yet how good the horses returning from injury will come back or how well some of the younger horses will step up i feel Kauto Star will still not be beaten.
I think Sublimity will have a tough time repeating his CH win next year with Katchit, Ebaziayan, Gaspara, etc stepping up based on there performances this year i would see them as big contenders next year also if Black Jack Ketchum where to run i think he would be a tough horse to beat.
<br>I’d consider Voy Por Ustedes to have a chance of winning back to back champions but as already stated i think this would depend on how well Well Chief runs and also what race MWDS, Monets Garden, Fair Along,etc go for.
Danny, thats about the most coherent prose you’ve managed since you’ve joined.. Have you been practising? ;) :biggrin:
Reet, not sure how you get that he was done for toe? I know your supporting the view that he stays but to my eye they basically went on from about 6 out, left the rest of em for dead then died on his feet from a furlong out.
I would guess they ran a slowish time because of this rather than the race actually being slow, hence why chief dan george came through and collared him after the last. If they ran the race again my bet is WL would win. Personally I think McCoy was concerned about one other horse in the race (Massini’s) and stuck to him, only for that to be his downfall.
I agree Aragorn. I think McCoy indentified Massini as his only threat, ignoring the chances of everything else.<br>Backfired bigtime though.<br>
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Quote: from Aragorn on 9:37 am on April 18, 2007[br]<br>Reet, not sure how you get that he was done for toe? I know your supporting the view that he stays but to my eye they basically went on from about 6 out, left the rest of em for dead then died on his feet from a furlong out. <br>
Aragorn.
A view based on the whole of WL’s form, not just the one race. <br>I fully expected him to get beaten around this sharp track, and I was surprised that AP didn’t make more use of him in the early stages. <br>Your view assumes that WL had the intrinsic speed to tire himself out over about 6f of serious racing, whereas the form book clearly shows he hasn’t?
I agree his form shows that he is a stayer, but to say that Chief Dan George did him for toe just doesn’t add up visually. He was about 15-20 lengths behind coming off the turn. Fitzy basically rode a well judged evenly paced race and the front two who kicked clear tired and folded.
I don’t think it was anything to do with him lacking pace. He’s no black jack in the turn of foot stakes but he’s no slowboat, you dont win championship races if your a slowboat.
I would agree with the sentiment that he was more likely to get turned over here but not in the manner he did. Bad ride for me.
Reet
You seem to be passing off your interpretation of the formbook as fact. Of course this Wichita Lineman that was too slow for 24f at Aintree is a different one that won at the track earlier in the season over 4f shorter from a subsequent Grade 1 2m novice winner.
My interpretation is that McCoy made too much use of Wichita Lineman and he finished tired rather than getting outpaced by Chief Dan George, who was ridden much more patiently and ran his race in a much more efficient manner. All things being equal, in an evenly run race, I would expect Wichita Lineman to beat James Moffats likeable beast at virtually any track over any distance between 2m and 3m.
On the formbook the race in question was pretty much a match between Wichita Lineman and Massini’s McGuire. Hence, Johnson and Mccoy rode the finish out of each other. The fact WL kept up the gallop longer than MM indicates he is a strong stayer. They were really racing from a long way out.
Not sure what the plans are for WL, but I’m excited to see him either novice chasing or taking on the seasoned pro’s in the world hurdle.
Looks a chaser to me….. I would imagine O’Neill and McManus would prefer a long term gold cup prospect which is what he looks like to me.. Definite chaser.
I’d agree wholeheartedly. R&SA next year, before a tilt at the 2009 Gold Cup. L’Ami will most likely be finished by then, and McManus will want another Gold Cup horse. He looks as though he’ll definitely suit further than 3m in time as well.
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Aragorn/DJ
Still unconvinced by your interpretation of Wichita Lineman’s run, I had another look at the race and compared it with other races at the meeting run over the same c/d; those of Mighty Man and Alberta Run, using sectional timing.<br>Though different grades, and on different days, similar enough to draw comparisons. Timings are my own hand-times taken from RP videos, so are essentially crude, but adequate for this purpose. Sections were defined as hurdles 3,7,10, and the winning line, giving 4 roughly equal sections for each race.<br>The resulting sectionals were;
Thursday, Mighty Man.<br>  91.96secs  92.82  88.75  96.77<br>Friday, Chief Dan George.(WL)<br>  84.15     96.05  89.75  101.05<br>Saturday, Alberta Run.<br>  84.93     94.56  84.71   97.5  (e&oe)
According to the RP comments in running for Wichita Lineman;<br>chased leaders, went 2nd 7th, joined leader next, ridden to lead approaching 3 out, 4 lengths up when hit last, edged right and soon headed<br>and, I assume your reading of the race, the 3rd section, hurdles 7 to 10, was where WL and Massini’s Maguire ‘cut each other throats’, yet that, and the closing section were both run in considerably slower times than Saturday’s handicap?<br>While I appreciate that WL’s race was only a novice race, it was a good novice race, certainly rated higher on RPR than Saturday’s handicap yet, apart from an insignificant difference in the first quarter, was run throughout at a markedly slower pace, so I still fail to see where this injection of pace actually took place, or indeed, how WL tired?<br>My own interpretations may not be fact, but they are certainly drawn on knowing a little about the capabilities of the contenders in certain races, some understanding of form and pace, and very few assumptions based on uninformed commentaries and race-readers gut reactions, and they have stood me in good stead for a few years now. <br>Having spent about 2 hours on the above, and seen what a boring life Nick Mordin and other clockers must lead, I think I will stick to them, too.:)
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Who’s sectional’s are they Reet? Chief Dan George’s or Wl’s?
From a time perspective, the top hurdler’s ran basically the same time as Chief Dan George and Mighty man was 13l’s clear of BJK and the current world hurdle champion. So they weren’t hugely slow. Alberta’s run carried a stone less to victory (Makes refinement’s time look impressive) so perhaps that explains the difference in times. Probably a horse to follow though.
The last sectional time is incredibly slow in WL’s race so that would suggest he wasn’t done for toe as your suggesting and was in fact slowing up massively. That interpretation is based on how you have timed it, but I would guess WL was the first horse over the last sectional and CDG was obviously the first over the line. So WL probably ran an even slower last sectional than your giving us.
All this shows me Reet is that WL ran a very slow last sectional suggesting that he was out on his feet, not done for toe as you suggest. It also suggests the novice distance hurdlers aren’t that good, relatively speaking. I don;t really see how this helps your argument. Perhaps if you timed CDG and WL’s sectionals individually it would give a better picture of how the race panned out rather than trying to compare it to other races.
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