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Punters, after you’ve been through the form book and come up with your selections, do you have any perception of a price which make them bets? https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/simon-nott-fancy-a-dust-up/
That’s a good question, Simon, and one I’ve asked myself often. When you’re winning it’s easy to kid yourself that you found value but in my mind value should be value whether it wins or not. Myself I think I try to look for value, but if I’m honest suspect that I’m lacking the knowhow of going about it. I could never bet on a rank outsider unless the was some angle on it which I found.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.
- Total Posts 2553
The mention of last minute prices brought to mind my one visit to a dog track when visiting my brother back oop north many years ago. The books chalked up their prices about a minute before the off; I’ve never been tempted to go to the dogs again.
On the subject of value; a long standing member of this forum has it tattooed on his forehead, this may well explain why he’s never married.
Hope I’ve used the semicolon in the correct manner above; I’m experimenting with it
When I sit down to study a race I never look at the bookies pricing up as it can influence the way I study the form. Seeing an odds on favourite in a race I immediately want to take it on with a bigger priced choice.
However, if my chosen horse also turns out to be the bookies favourite then I have to back it hopefully getting even money and a best odds promise.
Anything under Evens I will just watch.
Sometimes when at the races on concert days (my local course is Newmarket) I avoid betting on the Tote on any horse ridden by Frankie Dettori the best value is to found with the bookies offering best odds guarantee, are there any on course bookies that do this now?
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I grew up close to Walthamstow dogs Tank. The bookies there wanted you to take a price before you saw what the dogs looked like
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I use a method which I believe gives me an edge and then seek out best prices.
I used to work to value prices for all my selections, often more than one in a race, but market gets wise over time. I now have a more nuanced approach.
While many things may influence why you make a particular selection for a race for me the one overriding question I ask myself is ….
“do I believe the price offered & taken reflect,in my own mind regardless of what others may think,the horses true chance of winning this particular race?”
probably my last post for a while
good luck to all“Look” (assess the form) for the winner and invest if that horse is 4/1 or bigger (E/W if 16/1 or bigger). Don’t look for value or best prices, don’t digest the odds first, look for the horse!
Hope I’ve used the semicolon in the correct manner above; I’m experimenting with it
Doesnt matter if when and where you use punctuation nowadays on an internet forum and in text messages especially people just dont use it doesnt make any sense whatsoever what some people put
I grew up close to Walthamstow dogs Tank. The bookies there wanted you to take a price before you saw what the dogs looked like
Only ever been to the Dogs once on a work’s outing and was offered the advice to watch the Bookies boards to see the movers and back the ones shortening in price. Didn’t take any notice and had forecasts and even a tricast come up.
As for what the dogs looked like I quipped, when they came out with their handlers, that “they look like dumb f*****s….and the dogs don’t look too clever either”, which went down well with some but not others
When you’re winning it’s easy to kid yourself that you found value but in my mind value should be value whether it wins or not. Myself I think I try to look for value, but if I’m honest suspect that I’m lacking the knowhow of going about it.
This. If I get a winner say over 10/1 I always think I did well to get the value there but this is pure hindsight. I suppose in a fashion you are sub-consciously looking for value but I don’t see value in any price under 2/1 whilst others (such as Ginger) can see it in odds on shots. Each to their own I suppose.
Homer
If you get a that winner and 8/1 was available with 7 bookmakers but you take the 10/1 with an 8th bookmaker then you have some degree of value which is realised if the horse wins. If you get the best odds possible, or near to the best odds on a regular basis you are nearer to making a profit. SP is a very good indicator of the winning chance of horses over a period of time, so if you can beat SP you are more likely to end up in front.
That said value in terms of the price you expect is in the eye of the beholder. My must successful betting period was in the early days of the exchanges when I set my own tissue and backed horses which fitted certain criteria provided they were at a longer price than my tissue. I suspect that it was more a question that I was taking advantage of the lack of judgement of those laying horses rather than my own tissue being particularly accurate. Mug money abounded for a while but it’s harder now the market is more clued up.
If I rated a horse at 3/1 and it was on offer at 50/1 then the likelihood is that I’ve got something wrong! That’s what’s wrong with the Kelly Criterion for staking…, but that’s another matter probably discussed elsewhere!
Rob
Hope I’ve used the semicolon in the correct manner above; I’m experimenting with it
Intelligent woman sexually attracted to man who used a semicolon correctly
Maybe it’s hindsight but the only time I can recall backing value was BEECH ROAD in the 1989 Champion Hurdle. Having beaten a more fancied horse in the race; more than once so to my mind proving it was no fluke; I thought it was overpriced. The horse it beat was the second favourite; and was still fancied ahead of BR.
Of cos winning helped, but even if it was second I still thought at the time and even now; it was value.
GoldenMiller you’re absolutely right and that’s the way I approach my racing.
Only been to the dogs twice never backed a winner. My local track is Belle Vue, as for the Gee gees Haydock
Homer my education in punctuation is sadly lacking.
What we need in value is lessons from Ginger
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.- Total Posts 2553
Nice one, Richard
Well RR; I couldn’t resist.
Good article / question Simon; but the trouble with asking about “value” is it means different things to different punters. Therefore when asked – Do you have a value price before checking the market? Most will say “Yes”. But are they all really thinking of value as you and I do? Do they all really know the table of odds and percentages off by heart? When asked about a race priced up at 150% where 11/4 was offered that the punter thought a “solid 9/4″… I believe a fair number of punters would think of “a solid 9/4 shot” the same as they’d see on a bookmaker’s board, ie with the bookies mark up already in the price. How many of those punters asked were thinking of 9/4 as a 30.8% chance and the 11/4 as 26.7%?
Also worth bearing in mind: Although most punters have some sort of understanding of “value”, the actual number of winning punters means most either don’t have enough understanding of it OR aren’t good enough at evaluating form in to chance.
My edge is (or maybe that should be was?) in the Early market – pitting my wits against the odds-compilers. But That was fine when off course bookies allowed me to take those prices! Closed or severely limited accounts mean relying on betfair and their markets lack liquidity. Often not able to get enough on. However – being a Timeform Race Passes subscriber – if I don’t take what I can when the market opens then other good judges will and I’d be left with nothing.
I also agree with you that the closer it is to off time – in the vast majority of cases – the closer a market is to the horses actual true chance. ie Although some horses on “form” might look Value, there’s usually a reason it’s at a bigger price – not fit or not in the right frame of mind. Therefore – as it stands right now with Early odds markets etc – to change the time / way I bet would not provide profit.
But yes , these days IF EVERYONE had to wait until the last half hour it would be great for me if .
That said, getting on in the first few minutes of trading – in order to get a good price – might prove tricky. The teacher is back.
Value Is EverythingGetting the best price available for a horse is not necessarily “value” / a good bet.
If there’s a market which prices up the throw of a fair dice with just one bookie going top price of 9/2 about one of the runners… It is still a poor bet.
However, say on another throw one bookie goes 6/1 but you’re too late to take the price and have to settle for 11/2. The 11/2 is still a value bet despite it not being the best price that’s been available.
Beating SP is easy for most punters and punters should not kid themselves that doing so means they’re winning. It’s the average price taken that matters.
Over time – if a punter’s bets beat the SP by an average of 20% the bookie will usually close the account whether in profit or not; because they know keeping the account going will end up costing them.
I’m nowhere near as concerned about getting the best available price as I used to. In fact for me it’s usually impossible anyway. Even on the odd occasion of getting worse than SP doesn’t concern me because I’ve obviously thought the price I’ve taken is better than its true chance.
Value Is Everything
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