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Here are the key points.
We surely must question the 11 lengths Harbinger held over Cape Blanco, and the 14L gap back to proven G1 performers Youmzain and Daryakana. Harbinger was far and away the best horse on the day, but the beaten brigade did not run to form, and in a big way.
Let’s begin the form analysis by looking at Harbinger’s lead up race to the King George.
Harbinger won the G2 Hardwicke Stakes by 3.5L over Duncan, an inconsistent but capable horse himself. Duncan actually went down by less than a length in last year’s Coronation Cup, a weak Group 1 won by Ask a nose in front of Youmzain. In the Hardwicke, Duncan powered 6L clear of the third placed horse Barshiba (who did win a fillies & mares G2 next time out), suggesting he may have run to his best form. This put Harbinger in with a good chance of taking out the King George.
But this leads to the first reason to question the form around Harbinger’s 11L romp.
*Harbinger was only eased up the jockey with around 50m to go in both the G2 race and the King George. In other words, he was more or less pushed to the line by Ryan Moore to achieve the 3.5L margin over Duncan. Even factoring in the faster pace of the King George and Harbinger’s improvement the 11L winning margin sticks out like a sore thumb. On face value his King George performance seems a massive improvement on all previous known form…Now onto the race itself. First of all,
*There were only 6 runners, and of Harbinger’s 5 opponents one was Workforce, who ran a dismal race. This leaves the pacemaker and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th placed horses.Cape Blanco ran a clear second after chasing the pacemaker, beating home the 3rd placegetter Youmzain by over 3L. But there is reason to believe that he is a 1m 2f horse, as his best runs have been at that distance. He did win the 1m 4f Irish Derby, but in labored fashion. I have read that Aidan O’Brien believes he might not have gotten the distance at the Curragh and won with his class (I cannot find this quote however).
*Cape Blanco did not seem to get the trip. He was under pressure before 3f out and even got a crack with the whip just inside 3f. Meanwhile, the riders of proven stayers Harbinger, Youmzain, and Daryakana were still sitting quietly on their mounts. There are various arguments that can be made to counter this observation: Youmzain and Daryakana were at the back of the field, this just proves how good Harbinger is, Cape Blanco was trying to pinch a break, etc. But Cape Blanco’s being pushed along considerably earlier than the other horses bar Workforce and the pacemaker, his wayward running in the straight, and his labored effort at the Curragh do not give you confidence that he stays the distance. Nor the ease with which Cape Blanco set a hot pace in the Irish Champion Stakes.Youmzain’s record at Ascot leaves much to be desired, and he is also well known to prefer some cut in the ground. Here he ran into third place 14L behind Harbinger.
*Youmzain did not run to his form at all. This may be an extension of his unimpressive record at Ascot, and his cause was probably not helped by the ground, classified as Good. In his three Ascot runs, he has been beaten 20L on Good to Fast ground after stumbling on a turn, 4L by Dylan Thomas on Good to Soft, and 9.5L by Duke of Marmalade on Good to Fast.There are few obvious excuses that can be made for 2010 Hong Kong Vase winner Daryakana. But Daryakana surely ran below form, and this can be seen through the performance of Harbinger’s pacemaker, Confront.
Confront really puts a question mark over the form. This 5 year old has always been a hold-up miler, winning at G3 level and running a blinder in the G1 Hong Kong Mile to finish less than 2L from the winner despite a slightly troubled passage. He won a Class 2 over 9f, but finished beaten 6L or more in three tries at 10f, including one after the King George. The King George is the only time he has run beyond 10f.
*Confront, who clearly does not get the distance, ran an unusually respectable race. It took some of the other horses a shocking amount of effort to get past him. Youmzain and Daryakana ended up beating him by only a bit over 8L, and more disturbingly Daryakana did not overhaul him until the furlong pole.The final point comes not from form analysis, but just by a simple fact. Most horse racing enthusiasts have learned to be wary of race times and track records, especially in European racing.
*Harbinger broke the track record by half a second, but the track record was previously held by 3 year old handicappers. How can that be? The King George was run around a new course that has only run 12f races 46 times, excluding races with the word Soft in the going description (stat courtesy of Nick Mordin).All of a sudden, lowering the track record by half a second sounds a lot less impressive. Harbinger is undoubtedly a smart horse, and the win remains one of the most visually impressive of all time, but there are very real question marks over the race.
I was there on the day and I think it was one of the most incerdible performances I have seen regardless of any other factors. Would Harbinger ever have repeated that sort of performance again? Who knows…but on the day I seriously dont know what horse would have beaten him.
I think it is easy (I’m not saying you are) to look for reasons to crab him, the race, and the other horses performaces, when it just might be that he is, or was ont he day, that good.
In my opinion (with the exception of Workforce) the other horses ran to their ratings give or take. As for the pace of the race, it wasnt like Harbinger was sitting 20 lengths of the pace in a big field race being ran suicidal pace. He was pretty much on the heels of Cape Blanco and Workforce all the way as far as I could tell. Cape Blanco’s best distance may be a matter of opinion but there is no doubt he is pretty smart. The Hardwicke Stakes is throwing up Group winners left, right and centre and is rapidly looking very smart form on it’s own.
He will probably never be remembered the way Sea the Stars will be, but that replay will probably be with us every year on King Gerorge Day for a long, long, time!
Oh come on, Ginge.
The guy has taken over eight weeks to come up with this, while in the meantime the 11-length King George second Cape Blanco has p1ssed up in the Irish Champion, Duncan has won the Foy, Sans Frontieres has completed a Group hat-trick in the Irish St Leger, and Redwood has won twice, including in a Grade 1 in Canada.
I, for one, enjoyed it.
I’m just amazed that people seem to want to run more "championship" races at Ascot.
Rather than highlighting how good Harbinger was, Cape Blanco’s Irish Champion win only makes me more convinced that nothing behind the winner ran any sort of race in the King George.
Nobody is saying Cape Blanco ran to the same mark as in the Irish Champion or that Youmzain ran to his Arc form, they didn’t. But the rating of Harbinger is not based on those runs.
No, Cape Blanco did not run to his Irish Champion form. But there is every reason to suggest he ran right up to previous Irish Derby and Dante form.
Did Youmzain run to form?
Obviously not if you are comparing the Arc second. But again, looking at his previous start in France. Youmzain and Daryakana matched their running. So it’s fairly clear Channon’s horse and the French filly ran to the same marks as at Saint Cloud, well below Longchamp form.Timeform ratings before the King George suggested Cape Blanco would beat Youmzain and Daryakana by roughly the same distances as actually happened.
At the time of the King George it seemed as though Harbinger improved dramatically. Obviously he did by quite a bit, but not as much as it seemed at the time. Much is made of the Hardwicke being only a Group 2, but the performance was worthy of a Grop 1 horse. Subsequent runs of Duncan, Sans Frontiers and Redwood mean it can be rated even better than at the time.
Value Is EverythingI’m just amazed that people seem to want to run more "championship" races at Ascot.
I would like to point out that I have already written my blog this week and that, when it appears, it is not intended to be having a pop at what this comment seems to imply.
Let’s face it Ginge – the time was good, but bar that we are all just guessing and we could argue all day about what did and didn’t run to form at Ascot
Personally speaking, Duncan and Cape Blanco could finish 1-2 in the Arc ,10 lengths clear of the rest and I still wouldn’t be convinced Harbinger was the best horse I had ever seen.
Bottom line – Harbinger isn’t going to run again, so people will just have to agree to differ.
I’m just amazed that people seem to want to run more "championship" races at Ascot.
I would like to point out that I have already written my blog this week and that, when it appears, it is not intended to be having a pop at what this comment seems to imply.
Pop away Prufrock – I’m not precious…
In fairness, I have much more of a problem with races run on the straight course at Ascot, with normally reliable horses being beaten jumps distances in races over 7f etc.
Take the Jersey – it went straight in my bin as a guide to future form as soon as the race finished – and I’m glad it stayed there.
Time is another factor.
People are comparing it with the previous best put up by a handicapper. The fact it was a course record should not matter greatly, it’s the comparrison with times on the day.When you look at this years Royal Ascot, course records were going in every other race. That just means the going is quick.
Harbinger put up a time considerably quicker than anything else at the meeting, on ground that was not considered that firm. Even allowing for it being the only Group 1 at the meeting (so should be quicker), the time was exceptional.
Value Is Everything
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