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Reports are that it’s likely to be soft ground to start on Tuesday. If they get any rain during the meeting and the ground becomes heavy could this be a serious problem for Black Caviar?? Will she even be risked on heavy ground??
These sprint races can be lotteries at the best of times, tie in soft ground and possible draw bias surely Black Caviar is opposable at 2/5 best price ante post. I’m not a layer of horses so I’m looking at a couple E/W ante-post and I’m really liking the look of the French filly Wizz Kid.
Reports are that it’s likely to be soft ground to start on Tuesday. If they get any rain during the meeting and the ground becomes heavy could this be a serious problem for Black Caviar?? Will she even be risked on heavy ground??
These sprint races can be lotteries at the best of times, tie in soft ground and possible draw bias surely Black Caviar is opposable at 2/5 best price ante post. I’m not a layer of horses so I’m looking at a couple E/W ante-post and I’m really liking the look of the French filly Wizz Kid.
Just noticed Wizz Kid’s best price 10/1 for King Stand so maybe that’s the more likely target. Never the less, I get the impression she’s an improver and was 2nd to Deacon Blues in the Diadem last year. Think you get a big run wherever she goes.
Reports are that it’s likely to be soft ground to start on Tuesday. If they get any rain during the meeting and the ground becomes heavy could this be a serious problem for Black Caviar?? Will she even be risked on heavy ground??
These sprint races can be lotteries at the best of times, tie in soft ground and possible draw bias surely Black Caviar is opposable at 2/5 best price ante post. I’m not a layer of horses so I’m looking at a couple E/W ante-post and I’m really liking the look of the French filly Wizz Kid.
Just noticed Wizz Kid’s best price 10/1 for King Stand so maybe that’s the more likely target. Never the less, I get the impression she’s an improver and was 2nd to Deacon Blues in the Diadem last year. Think you get a big run wherever she goes.
She has only trialled on heavy ground,though brilliantly,though race conditions are different,i think she is bomb proof and will win whatever conditions there is on the day,though if it was heavy it may bring some of the wet trackers into calculations.
She has won an 800m barrier trial on heavy 10 (heaviest rating in Aus) in 47.75…pretty slick considering.
From an article in Aus this morning…
"It does look as if there is going to be more rain at Ascot next week and I asked Tony Hayden, Peter Moody’s assistant, whether he was worried about the ground and he reminded me about that barrier trial," Clark said.
"He said she looked to love testing ground that day and, if that’s the case, it won’t really matter at all."
Another to throw support behind Black caviar was Gary Crispe, head of racing’s form experts Timeform.
The Ascot track is currently rated soft – heavy in places – but Crispe thinks class will prevail.
"My feeling is that it (the track) will be fine for her, but in terms of the races which she has won, it’s uncharted territory," he said.
"I’ve seen all of the Australian sprinters who have come over to win at the meeting in recent years and she’s
at least 10 lengths
better than any of those. I’ve no doubt she deserves to be the sort of price that she is."
10 lengths that’s horsesh@t I don’t rate Gary crispe as that great a judge. He’s the bloke who rated sunline above northerly despite getting beat 3 times carrying less weight each time.
Hay list is comparable to Choisir or possibly slightly better than him, BC ain’t 10 lengths better than Hay List.
10 lengths that’s horsesh@t I don’t rate Gary crispe as that great a judge. He’s the bloke who rated sunline above northerly despite getting beat 3 times carrying less weight each time.
Hay list is comparable to Choisir or possibly slightly better than him, BC ain’t 10 lengths better than Hay List.
At both their peaks Sunline would have beaten Northerley, he got her late. I suppose he was one of those horses, you either loved him or hated him.
Hay List is lengths better than Choisir, he was a good horse, but not the best horse to have campaigned in the UK coming from Oz. I reckon Miss Andretti would be personally.
Im not fully familiar with Bated Breaths form, but has he just won the one listed race?
10 lengths that’s horsesh@t I don’t rate Gary crispe as that great a judge. He’s the bloke who rated sunline above northerly despite getting beat 3 times carrying less weight each time.
Hay list is comparable to Choisir or possibly slightly better than him, BC ain’t 10 lengths better than Hay List.
At both their peaks Sunline would have beaten Northerley, he got her late. I suppose he was one of those horses, you either loved him or hated him.
Hay List is lengths better than Choisir, he was a good horse, but not the best horse to have campaigned in the UK coming from Oz. I reckon Miss Andretti would be personally.
Im not fully familiar with Bated Breaths form, but has he just won the one listed race?
No Bated Breath has won a Group 2 last time out over 5f, he’s previously ran much better over 6f so the win over 5f is perhaps a decent pointer that he has improved. He has previously finished a narrow runner up in 3 Group 1’s.
I’m not sure about their Aussie form buit Choisir would certainly have the best UK form. He beat Oasis Dream in the Kings Stand, the best UK sprinter in recent years who ended up rated 125.
Miss Andretti beat Dandy Man in to second who ended up 106. I know i’m ‘cherry picking’ to a certain extent, but Choisir is top raider in my book, a win and narrow defeat to Oasis Dream is great form.
Reports are that it’s likely to be soft ground to start on Tuesday. If they get any rain during the meeting and the ground becomes heavy could this be a serious problem for Black Caviar?? Will she even be risked on heavy ground??
These sprint races can be lotteries at the best of times, tie in soft ground and possible draw bias surely Black Caviar is opposable at 2/5 best price ante post. I’m not a layer of horses so I’m looking at a couple E/W ante-post and I’m really liking the look of the French filly Wizz Kid.
With a dry week forecast the ground should be no worse than good to soft so I doubt if that will worry Black Caviar in the slightest.
There are times when backing ew is a no no and this is one of them.
You are depending on something going amiss with her because unless it does you are throwing half your stake down the drain.This isn’t a case of will she win it’s a case of how far will she win by.
On paper Moonlight Cloud 6/1 looks nailed on to chase her home and if she does or even finishes 3rd that leaves you one place to play for.
Assuming Black Caviar is unbeatable backing Moonlight Cloud ew is a mugs bet as you are backing at around 4/6 and she could easily burn herself out trying to keep tags on the Aussie champ and be run over by others being ridden for a place.
That said I wouldn’t mind a bit of evens Moonlight for a place only, if it is available on the machine, but really the only sensible bet is stick the kitchen sink on Black Caviar or watch without betting.
but really the only sensible bet is stick the kitchen sink on Black Caviar or watch without betting.
Really? I think not old boy! I took the view that last years ‘Wokingham’ was on a par with the ‘Golden Jubilee’,
Society Rock
is a proper ‘Soft’ ground Group 1 horse and he won The Jubilee carrying 9-4,he’ll run a big race again with conditions to suit but was only a 16/1 shot when I assessed this years race,TAPK can find a bigger priced ‘Player’ than that!
All things considered,Pastoral Player
a ‘handicapper’ verging on Group class ran 3rd in the 2010 ‘Wokingham’ carrying the same weight as the Group 1 horses and clocked a time comparitive to finishing 3rd in the Jubilee itself,bearing in mind the 3rd horse was the Aussie challenger
Star Witness
there’s collateral form to draw on regarding the chances of the 1/3 fav
Black Caviar
.In my world that evidence was enough to suggest
Pastoral Player
was massively overpriced at 66/1,he was being prepared for another tilt at The Wokingham but victory over the very useful
Red Jazz
took his mark beyond the rating limit for the race so the obvious target was the ‘Jubilee’.Now its easy to say that I have wasted my Win bet but until the wonder mare has won we wont know whether the conditions of the race,going or the journey have taken a ‘hidden’ toll on her,admittedly She looks an absolute picture and its fantastic that she’s here,if she wins on the bridle it will be great for Racing and we all want that but I have to find something at a price that could make the frame and I wouldn’t swap
Pastoral Player
for anything……..I’ll take 3rd place now though!
Ive picked Krypton Factor. His win in Dubai was very impressive and if i remember rightly he beat Rocket Man? Rocket Man was put up to race Black Caviar I think and they offered 1 million dollars for the owners to take him to Australia or around that money but it never happened, if Krypton Factor re produces that I feel he could go close, providing Kierens on board.
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