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- Total Posts 17716
How was "Strong Suit made to look ordinary by Zoffany" when he’d beaten the same horse comprehensively in the Coventry?
You’re talking in riddles again, Fist.
And if anyone thinks Frankel, if he does win, is going to put 4, 5, 6, 7 or even 8 lengths between himself and Dream Ahead then they’re out of their mind.
Frankel won’t be able to sustain the acceleration he showed against sub-standard opposition in the Royal Lodge when taking on the likes of Dream Ahead and Saamidd. It’s not possible, irrespective of what people’s sources are telling them. Besides, he’s not even the best middle-distance prospect in the yard and given how well he’s built I’d argue that a stiff six furlongs would be more ideal (at this stage) than seven against Dream Ahead.
As soon as the race goes NRNB (Dream Ahead isn’t going to shorten from 3/1 and 7/2) I might consider having my biggest bet for a long, long time.
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How was "Strong Suit made to look ordinary by Zoffany" when he’d beaten the same horse comprehensively in the Coventry?
You’re talking in riddles again, Fist.
And if anyone thinks Frankel, if he does win, is going to put 4, 5, 6, 7 or even 8 lengths between himself and Dream Ahead then they’re out of their mind.
Frankel won’t be able to sustain the acceleration he showed against sub-standard opposition in the Royal Lodge when taking on the likes of Dream Ahead and Saamidd. It’s not possible, irrespective of what people’s sources are telling them. Besides, he’s not even the best middle-distance prospect in the yard and given how well he’s built I’d argue that a stiff six furlongs would be more ideal (at this stage) than seven against Dream Ahead.
As soon as the race goes NRNB (Dream Ahead isn’t going to shorten from 3/1 and 7/2) I might consider having my biggest bet for a long, long time.
Yes by all acounts he beat Zoffany at Ascot, by 7 lengths in fact. Hell they even made him favourite for the 2000 Guineas.
Then what happened to you fall asleep and miss the Phenoix?
Zoffany won with a bit in hand and he’s no great shakes as we seen when he met Pathfork.
Since the Strong Suit has been a constant drifter from 5/1 out to 25/1 I’d say that makes him look pretty ordinary by these standards.
You say anyone who thinks Frankel can win by 4 lengths or more is nuts.
How come Frankel who beat nothing in his last two races has suddenly shot up to a 129 rated horse?
He’s up there because had he been racing in the Sussex on the same day the accelartaion he showed from between the 2f and 3f pole (the point where they markedly quickened in the Sussex) would have put him about 4 lenths in front of Rip Van Winkle.
Considering Tom Queally eased him down well before the line that is nothing short of remarkable.
William Buick thinks Dream Ahead is the most amzing horse he has ever sat on. Frankie calls Saamidd Pegasus which tells you how highly he regards him.
So maybe one or even both will beat Frankel or manged to get him off the bridle and into aclose run race but they are going to have to be everything their jockeys think they are and more.
As far as him being a 6 furlong horse considering Henry Cecil never even gave that trip a thought and sent him straight over a 1 mile for his first race. So either Henry is a terrible judge or you’re about as good a judge as the armchair you sit in.
That aside you could very well be right maybe Dream Ahead who’s fantastic looking horse will win but Frankel and Saamidd aren’t Strong Suit an and Approve runnng in ground they hate. These are the real thing and he hasn’t met anything remotely as good.
Wish you luck
The smart money is on Native Khan ew at 20/1.
No it isn’t!
Oh yes it is. (we could continue this all afternoon in pantomime fashion).
Frankel will almost definitely win.
It is almost certain that one of – Dream Ahead or Saamid will be unplaced.Native Khan maybe just maybe may even win the race but will almost certainly be in the top 3.
Therefor he has to be the best bet in the race.
If you had £20 to spend, then £20 on Frankel winning at 8/13 would return £32.31.
£10 ew on Native Khan would return £50 if he placed and £260.0 if he won.
It is significant that Corals are the shortest price on Native Khan. Congratulations, you have just had your card marked.
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The pundit I speak of is Terry Norman who has openly said time and time again he thinks the only value is when you think a horse will actually win. He also said openly he has never known anyone to make money by betting so called "Value" In his postion and his contacts I would suggest he knows a bit more about the truth in within racing than you and I put together.
OMG! Someone at Timeform Ginger can’t agree with?
He’ll be absolutely devastated.
- Total Posts 17716
Why is one of Dream Ahead and Saamidd ‘almost certain to be unplaced’, Zoso?
Fist – surely you recognise the crucial difference between identifying A) the likeliest winner of a race and B) the one whose price the market may have erred on.
Otherwise you’d back (almost) exclusively favourites or 2nd favourites wouldn’t you?
Q. How can backing 10 losers at 4/1 be ‘value’
A. When you also back 3 winners at the same price
Why is one of Dream Ahead and Saamidd ‘almost certain to be unplaced’, Zoso?
Because of the nature of the race. An end of season 2yo race is highly unlikely to go according to plan and have the fav, 2nd fav and 3rd fav all filling the places.
Just look at some of the previous winners of this race in the last 10 years:
Beethoven – 1st – 33/1
Intense Focus – 1st – 20/1
Milk It Mick – 1st – 33/1
Tout Seoul – 1st – 25/1I would suggest its bordering on insanity to assume the 1st 3 home will be – Frankel, Saamid and Dream Ahead.
Native Khan ew at 20/1 is where the smart money is.
Fist , Apalachee was trained by Vincent O Brien , it was 1970/71 , he was in his pomp , and to be honest all of Ireland knew he was a genius , at that time we all expected the horse to slay all dragons in the following year , Timeform raved about him and gave him a rating of 137
He bombed out , no problem , we all moved on
No matter who wins on Saturday I would be amazed if any of the main protagonists got a rating in the 130’s
In fact I will be amazed if any of them with the exception of Saamid become proper enduring 3 yr olds next year
Precosity is just that , and its significant that both of the big names are contesting the Dewhurst , when they dont need to , but its a marketing ploy IMO for future stud plans….business always plans ahead !!!
As for Wotton Bassett wow what speed , and what a horse , but same comment applies , I think he has too much speed to be a classic horse , but am secretly hoping I am wrong as it would be brilliant for the game to have R Fahy as a classic winning trainer
its all part of the dreaming game
good luck to you Fist
Ricky
I refer Zoso to the Betfair market in which Native Khan had drifted to 100 when his post was made. No money back for backing non-runners ante-post, of course. I’d guess the smart money would be scrabbling to get on Saamidd e/w at Corals 5/1 in a race which may yet cut up badly.
There are 2 reasons why Native Khan was available for a small ammount at 100.00 on betfair.
Reason 1 – 99.5% of people cant see past the winner coming from outside the first 3 in the market, so people are prepared to lay any other horse at stupid prices in the win market.]
Reason 2 – http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/stor … 24834.html
Dunlop has publically stated he isnt sure whether the horse will go for the Dewhurst or for the Racing Post trophy.
Privately however Dunlop knows full well that he is going for the Dewhurst and will definitely run.Keep watching that betfair market and I hope you helped yourself to some of that 100. whilst you could Rory.
He will definitely run, 100% about that.
I have considered sitting on the sides and let feeble arguments take place but I can’t just stand and stare anymore.
Please refrain from bringing Frankel down by even mentioning anything further away than this coming Sunday. If you wish to slate the horse about what he will do next year, make a thread up about it. The title of this thread is "DEWHURST STAKES". So why is everybody rambling on about if he will stay the Derby? All I am focussing on is the 7f infront of him on Saturday.
I think that this horse is getting better with each gallop he does and if anyone cares to look at the RP Website and watches the feature with Tony Elves he leaves you in no doubt about the horses well being. I just wish I could find out who his gallop partner is.
In my opinion the race will develop around the 2.5f mark.. Saamidd will be off the bridle and Frankie will be driving him along and I think Dream Ahead will be cruising. There will be a moments doubt when Queally pushes the Nitro button on Frankel but he will start to show his turn of foot and accelerate away. William Buick will now respond by giving Dream Ahead a push and I think by now with under 2 furlongs left to travel Buick wont be finding alot, and you have to remember Dream Ahead will most probably be drifiting across the track aswell.
So with 1.5f to go we will have Queally driving Frankel clear by 2l Buick drifiting across the course in second and Saamidd going back to the stragglers a further 3l behind. I think as Frankel has proven his stamina he will draw away to the line.
If he does indeed win by more than 5l you will all have to bow your heads in shame. How can you go against a horse who has never truely been extended, and side with a horse which hasnt even tackled the distance before and drifts across the track at 6f??
The only doubt that one could have about Frankel is that when Queally gets serious with the horse he may have to give him a smack, and Frankel has never been hit before.
Racing is a great sport because everyone can have an opinion. I am siding with Fist and I think we will be proven to be correct. No doubt when he does win the Dewhurst and wins well you will all jump on the "He will not train on" bandwagon or the "He will never stay the Derby" bandwagon. Although by reading some of the comments on here you already have prebooked tickets. Enjoy the ride
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So Ed Dunlop is deliberately deceiving the general public then?
Whether Native Khan is an intended starter or not, how do you suppose he’s going to bridge the obvious and somewhat chasmic class gap between himself and any of Dream Ahead, Frankel and Saamidd? Listing big-priced winners of previous renewals of the race is all very well, but this is not an ordinary year.
The reason is simple Armchair Jockey.
Its a 2yo race and is filled with improvers and developers. Native Khan is a very good horse, he will definitely be running, he is unbeaten and has a progressive profile. He will progress again on Saturday and that puts him bang in the picture.
Frankel was so physically developed early that he may have already peaked and may not be able to improve too much on his form already shown.
The race will come too soon for Dream Ahead and Saamid has probably already peaked for this season.
Native Khan at 20/1 ew is where the smart money remains.
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So you’re making assumptions about both the ability and condition of the front three in the market, whilst also making assumptions about Native Khan’s potential for improvement?
That much guesswork does not lead to ‘smart money’ I’m afraid.
Native Khan at 20/1 ew is where the smart money remains.
Surely the smart money was on Betfair at 100,75,60, and 55"s Zoso for those confident he will run?
Native Khan at 20/1 ew is where the smart money remains.
Surely the smart money was on Betfair at 100,75,60, and 55"s Zoso for those confident he will run?
The 100 and 110 etc is a good bet to have, as you will be able to lay it back at markedly shorter on the day.
But I expect Frankel to win the race, so the smart money is actually ew on Native Khan at 20/1 as I have explained, Native Khan placing pays better than Frankel winning.
Dream Ahead needs cut to show his best form, the good ground will not be ideal and he will run below form and is the likliest of the top 3 to unplace especially as the run will come to soon for him.
Although I think Frankel will win, he does not have the best form in the race, his win at Ascot was visually outstanding, but I dont believe that Ascot form stands up (I would have loved to have layed Harbinger at around Evens in the Arc if he hadnt of got injured). He won over 1 mile last time, no horse in the last 10 years has ran over a mile and then dropped back down in trip to win this race. Though he is a potential monster so may be up to the task, I certainly wouldnt back Frankel at odds on but will happily watch him win if he can. I dont think he is rock solid though.
Saamidds form is closer to Native Khans and though Saamids is slightly better it is only marginal. Saeed Bin Suroor was on fire when Saamidd had his 2 wins and although they are hardly out of form now he may have already peaked.
The smart money is still definitely on progressive Native Khan at 20/1. For sure. The more I look at it, the more this horse has a genuine chance of winning this race.
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