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The smart money is still definitely on progressive Native Khan at 20/1. For sure. The more I look at it, the more this horse has a genuine chance of winning this race.
Well i"m not betting in the race so good luck with your bet!
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You’re actually taking offence at people wishing to discuss Frankel’s potential for improvement next year in a thread that effectively revolves around him and one other horse?
Jeez.
Native Khan looks likely to improve quite a bit but whether he’s ready to upset such precocious types as Frankel and Dream Ahead is open to debate. I think his year will be next season.
I’m not all that keen on Saamidd (relative to the rest of them) and I think that, while Frankel is the most probable winner, Dream Ahead (dual Gr 1 winner don’t forget – the more I watch that Morny win the better it looks) definitely looks the bet.
Onthesteal;Aidan and many others might envy Henry but Coolmore have one business, breeding good horses. Frankel just like Teofilo and New Approach is an enormous boost to Coolmore, not something to envy,unless you are the competition.
You’re actually taking offence at people wishing to discuss Frankel’s potential for improvement next year in a thread that effectively revolves around him and one other horse?
Jeez.
I’m not taking offence to it, it just seems they are saying these are chinks in his armour when it has nothing to do with the Dewhurst. Nobody can fault Frankel or put him down on his performances so far, so they say hes beat nothing, then his times and rating prove them wrong.
So they say Dream Ahead is far better, we will see on the day
I know I’m a bit of a nanny [well, I am a nanny] but I’m a bit concerned that, if this race really is as competitive as it seems, some of these youngsters could leave next years season behind them on Saturday. Very much looking forward to it, though!
This is a hell of a race. Every jockey thinks their horse is a machine…is it possible that we can have 3 machines all racing at once, driving for the line like Rock of Gibraltars Dewhurst? Or do we want one stand out performer coming 3, 4, 5, 6+ lengths clear?
Not sure, but I am gonna love watching to see. Personally think Frankel will win. Dream Ahead may have been flattered by the conditions when winning the Middle Park. There were a few exaggerated winning distances that day with the ground looking really tacky and a strong head wind too. Horses such as Cityscape won well on the day but on the climb to the line those in behind were floundering badly due to not handling the ground.
Saamidd? Dont know how good he is…we’ll see on Saturday.
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I’ve gathered 4 of the previous Dewhurst winners in recent years that have gone on to better things with their Dewhurst rating being the one below their name and their previous races follow, this is to get a feel of where they were physically and how they progressed to the Dewhurst.
* 2001 Dewhurst won by Rock of Gibraltar was a false time to a slow run race.New Approach
98.97 Good
93.96 Firm
90.85 SoftSir Percy
94.37 Good to Soft
92.75 Soft
79.88 FirmShamardal
100.59 Soft
83.45 Good
83.96 Good to FirmRock of Gibraltar
91.37* Soft
100.62 Good to Soft
97.90 Good
89.88 Good to FirmThis years contenders
Dream Ahead
94.20 Soft
95.82 Good to Firm
79.01 Good to SoftFrankel
94.81 Good
93.73 Firm
90.79 SoftSaamidd
86.23 Good to Firm
81.81 SoftNative Khan
85.02 Good to Firm
81.87 Good to FirmI think Saamidd is showing an awful lot of resemblance to Shamardal and it would be interesting to see if Saeed has used the same regime with this horse because Shamardal improved and awful lot on the day to record an exceptional time which probably took a lot out the horse which is why returning as a 3 year old in Dubai he really needed it but excelled as a 3 year old and he is a horse i’ve become a little wary off in truth! and the smart money may just come from people backing this horse.
Frankel is improving at a higher level than his counter parts albeit at a slower rate of knots yet you could say he’s never really been out of 1st gear which is such a frigtening thought because you’d expect them slow progressive times to be done in the 80’s like say Native Khan and Saamid but he’s just so superior to his counter parts and you could say he’s like Dream Ahead more physically and mentally mature but Cecil has denied these claims taking a slower route with him although it’s just his winning style that gives this horse a little more star quallity and excitment than others in the past. He’s already on par with Dream Ahead as I’ve got his Royal Lodge win at 94.81 on Good (1.35) running 2.45 lengths quicker than his par on the day to Dream Ahead’s 94.20 on Soft (-2.45) who ran just 0.65 lengths quicker than his par on the day with both horses having their prefered ground but Frankel has yet to run under Group 1 conditions and the information is telling us that he’s ready to so ideally we’ve got a horse running Group 1 times without having run under the conditions yet or having come out of first gear so the onus is on the rest of the field to pull out at least a 100 figure on the day given Frankel runs as we expect. This means more improvement from Dream Ahead whos raced in 2 Group 1s now and failed to achieve that target, to bit on the cautious side it’s not out of the relms that 3 improving runs indcates a poor performance next time out in my expierance.
Dream Ahead was mature enough to go over to France carrying a figure of 79 ish and the decision was proved correct as he came home really well in the Morny, something tells me this horse is probably the more physically and mentally advanced in his career in being able to do this which could hold serious question marks next year altough knowing this information it could signal he may just be too go for his rivals on the day and that would probably be enough for a stud career after a failed effort in the guineas you’d have thought.
Native Khan, he’s either really slow or very very backwards and needs a much further trip in time maybe 10 furlongs but it would be hard to really see him featuring in truth although next year he’s going to have to reach the 90’s at least maybe in the Dante to prove he’s just not another slow fraudulent group horse winning because of race conditions not racing ability.
Mr Wilson,
Saeed Bin Suroor didn’t train Shamardal for his 2-y-o campaign – he was in the care of Mark Johnston.
Young Mick, I know that Frankel was working with Tranquil Tiger earlier in the year. Not sure if that’s still the case as TT has been off the track for a while.
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Aragorn
Tranquil Tiger has worked recently with Twice Over – though you’d expect a gallop-watcher worth his salt to recognise him anyway.- Total Posts 17716
Fist – surely you recognise the crucial difference between identifying A) the likeliest winner of a race and B) the one whose price the market may have erred on.
Otherwise you’d back (almost) exclusively favourites or 2nd favourites wouldn’t you?
Q. How can backing 10 losers at 4/1 be ‘value’
A. When you also back 3 winners at the same price
That’s not value that’s dice throwing IMO.
First of you have to average at least 4/1 to make it work.
If you do what Ginger does (Backs 3 in one race) that 4/1 will be more like 4/5 and right away he’s backing against what he’s preaching.
Here’s my worthless opinion.
You of course mean 7 losers and 3 winners makes a profit which is correct.
So lets say you have 100 quid a pop that’s 1000 pounds your return is 1500 pounds from your 3 winners less 2% to 5% if betting on the exchanges.
So in real terms no matter how you look at it you have went a long way round to successfuly backed a 1/2 shot. Yes? No?
Against that I could have backed Frankel in the Royal Lodge to make that sort of money for a just over a grand or put 700 quid on the horses I posted up today as off for it’s life , Champion Court for place at 1.81 and better.
Betting value which is totally misused word by people like his lordship is a mugs game IMO.
I think you’ve read enough of my posts to know I do not back 1st and 2nd fav only.
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IMO, there is only value to be had if you think Frankel will Bomb out, esp if i am right in saying not many people on here are going to have a 40,000/70.000
Unless you have a exceptional strike rate which over the years that says you can predict these kind of short ones with a better strike rate than average, i would invoke the saying "if you have the seven, why do you need the four"
its a race to savour, unless you really you really wan t to take him on.
No Fist – I meant 10 losers and 3 winners.
13 bets at 4/1 (average 4/1).
total staked = 13 pts
total returned = 15 pts
Total profit = 2 ptsProfit on turnover = 15.38% (very respectable)
That’s value. The crucial difference is whether you consider all 13 bets to have been ‘value’ or whether you are of a mind that only the three winners were ‘value’.
I think the difference lies in people’s philosophical approach. Some people (like yourself) search for ‘winners’. Others search for ‘value’. Either approach can be successful of course, I’d suggest that no way is necessarily more right than the other (however much you and GT may argue about it).
However, the person looking for ‘winners’ will only be successful if, in the process, he’s backing those winners at ‘value’ prices. Likewise, the person looking for ‘value’ will only make a profit if he gets the recquisite number of ‘winners’.
If you make a profit then, however you dress it up, you are punting ‘value’. You may not call it that but that is what you are doing. (And Frankel winning won’t prove otherwise btw)
If you make a profit then, however you dress it up, you are punting ‘value’. You may not call it that but that is what you are doing. (And Frankel winning won’t prove otherwise btw)
Bang on! I dress mine up to look very sexy at times!
The clever money has gone west I’m afraid. Turns out Ed Dunlop wasn’t fibbing when he suggested Native Khan wouldn’t run. And I had such faith in Zoso….
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