- This topic has 291 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
IMO, there is only value to be had if you think Frankel will Bomb out, esp if i am right in saying not many people on here are going to have a 40,000/70.00
Peanuts to our very own Fist! He had 1,000,0000,0000 on Canford cliffs for the 2000gns!
The clever money has gone west I’m afraid. Turns out Ed Dunlop wasn’t fibbing when he suggested Native Khan wouldn’t run. And I had such faith in Zoso….
I was convinced Zoso was Kirsty off Facebook.She rides out for Ed Dunlop! Smart Money my Ar*e!
Only six left in it now – Frankel, Dream Ahead, Saamid, Glor Na Mara, Roderic O’Connor & Waiter’s Dream.
Might be interesting tactically, but Frankel looks the sort to be able to cope with any tactics. At some stage of the race Queally will say: "Off you go", give him a nudge and it will all be over.
- Total Posts 17716
What else can I say?
- Total Posts 17716
The pundit I speak of is Terry Norman who has openly said time and time again he thinks the only value is when you think a horse will actually win. He also said openly he has never known anyone to make money by betting so called "Value" In his postion and his contacts I would suggest he knows a bit more about the truth in within racing than you and I put together.
The only reason Terry hasn’t met anyone who’s made money backing value is because he hasn’t let any of them get a word in edgeways!
What a strange thing to say about such a nice quiet withdrawn man?
Would be a great show if just the two of you got together in the studio for a tricky meeting at Kempton’s all weather. "No you are wrong" could end up being the most over used phrase in the history of radio
- Total Posts 17716
Fist
Once again your facts are wrong regarding Master Minded and I’m getting bored of poitning this out to you so I won’t be doing it again but Master Minded was NEVER rated higher than Denman or Kauto Star. By the BHA, yes, but not by Timeform.
For reference, the Chasers and Hurdlers ratings for 2007/08 were Kauto Star 182, Denman 180p and Master Minded 179. He certainly didn’t ‘shoot past’ either Kauto Star or Denman.
My humble apologies David seriously!! and I agree everyone at the BHA are nuts
Only six left in it now – Frankel, Dream Ahead, Saamid, Glor Na Mara, Roderic O’Connor & Waiter’s Dream.
Might be interesting tactically, but Frankel looks the sort to be able to cope with any tactics. At some stage of the race Queally will say: "Off you go", give him a nudge and it will all be over.
He’s a horse not a motorcycle. Maybe you’re right and Queally would end this by pressing the nitro button located in Frankel’s behind and lead the fav into fulfilling everyone’s expectations.
But I very much doubt it.
This one is a tough race where everything can happen, so come up with some logical reasons as of why Frankel is more likely to win than Dream Ahead or Saamid.
People may disagree with me, I cannot see to bet on this. Given the hype and again the word from the gallops this week, Frankel COULD be a world eater, could being the crucial word, however at 4/7? Surely not a price worth backing. Just saviour the occasion and watch a star being born, yes please.
It’s very rare to hear a negative gallop report.
We don’t know what Frankel was working with or what weights were carried. I wouldn’t read anything into that. I’m sure if Simcock or Godolphin were asked they’d say their horses were sparkling in their work too.
Looks a real race to savour but not one I’ll be having a financial interest in. Glor Na Mara should give us a good idea of how Pathfork and Casamento measure up against the best English 2yos. I’ve a feeling both are being underrated because they’re not from the traditionally strong yards – Oxx, Weld, Bolger, O’Brien.
Only six left in it now – Frankel, Dream Ahead, Saamid, Glor Na Mara, Roderic O’Connor & Waiter’s Dream.
Might be interesting tactically, but Frankel looks the sort to be able to cope with any tactics. At some stage of the race Queally will say: "Off you go", give him a nudge and it will all be over.
He’s a horse not a motorcycle. Maybe you’re right and Queally would end this by pressing the nitro button located in Frankel’s behind and lead the fav into fulfilling everyone’s expectations.
But I very much doubt it.
This one is a tough race where everything can happen, so come up with some logical reasons as of why Frankel is more likely to win than Dream Ahead or Saamid.
I like your bit about the motor bike and the nitro button – very unhorsey.
To make logical deductions one needs facts. No-one has enough facts to make logical deductions about Frankel beating Dream Ahead and the others on Saturday. One would need accurate answers to thousands of questions, like: what is the ratio of Strong Suit’s performance in the Middle Park against that in the Coventry and the Phoenix; the same for Approve against his Champagne run; how much performance progress have all the contestants made since their last run; will they all be as mentally and physically sound as in their best run to date; etc, etc.
If logic played a significant role in deciding the outcome of horse races, then betting would be impossible. All the professors of Aristotudian logic and multiple system syllogisms would be taking the bookies to the cleaners in every race. If horse racing is akin to any scientific discipline it is more likely to be Chaos Theory than Logic, and there are just too many variables to populate and compute to make choices based on that.
Racing isn’t all about dry as dust logic. There has to be excitement, anticipation, fun and trepidation as well. You’re not an actuary by any chance, are you?
Why Frankel? I want him to win because he is one of the most exciting racehorses I’ve seen since 1962. I think he has the ability to win easily. I think he has exceptional acceleration. He runs for fun. Henry Cecil says that he is a very good two year old. Sorry that they are all subjective comments and lack any logic.
- Total Posts 17716
I just don’t understand the secrecy surrounding Frankel’s lead horse; why did Tony Elves declare that Dream Ahead had been working with Vainglory, yet state that he wasn’t allowed to provide details of Frankel’s work partner?
I can’t imagine the yard are waiting to lump on at 4/7, so why not be honest?
I’ve been watching the Royal Lodge and Middle Park over and over and over again, and whilst I’ve already nailed by colours firmly to the Dream Ahead mast, I’m beginning to think that Frankel is very beatable. There’s just something about the closing stages at Ascot that I can’t quite put my finger on.
He’ll be made to fight for sure and I don’t know that he’s up to it.
- Total Posts 17716
Yeah I noticed something too at Ascot he covered the last two furlongs faster than Rip Van Winkle did and was eased down a mile before te line: Tke a tablet you’ll be fine in the morning
Down to 6 runners
Last thing I want to see a race result left open to debate.
It might have been an idea for at least one of the trainers of the top 3 to have thought about instead of assuming AOB would send one over.
I suppose Tom Queally won’t allow anyone to attempt to turn this into a 2 furlong sprint.
Mind you he probably still do them all for toe.
It wouldn’t be the smartest move by the others to let Frankel dictate the pace either and give him an easy lead as he looks to have more ability to quicken instantly than them and steal another few lengths before the others know what’s hit them.
Juts hope it’s a true run race. Well done anyone who manged to back Saamidd ew at 6/1 or better looks nailed on to make a profit.
Would be a great show if just the two of you got together in the studio for a tricky meeting at Kempton’s all weather. "No you are wrong" could end up being the most over used phrase in the history of radio
Heaven forfend!
Ginge when are you going to get it into your think head the only value bet is when you think ahorse will win and does.
If I should only bet "when I think a horse will win"; then that means I should only bet if I consider a horse better than a 50% chance of winning (ie better chance of winning than losing). That’s daft. If that’s so, I’d never be able to back anything bigger than around 6/4.
Time after time you talk absolute dribble about how you think so and has the best chance but the valie bet is such and such.
You may think that Fist. But why do you have to go off on one every time I mention value? That’s how I bet, get over it.
You talk about horse A being value at say 8/1 then what do you do?
You back it at 8/1 then in the same race back another horse at 4/1 and another one at 20/1 there for reducing the 8/1 shots value by more than half making him no longer the value bet you claimed he was in the first place.
I will try and explain the above bet:
If I believe A has a 16% (around a fair 11/2 chance) then it is excellant value at 8/1 (11%).
If I believe B a 25% chance (fair 3/1) then 4/1 (20%) is excellant value.
If I believe C a 9% chance (fair 10/1) then 20/1 (5%) is a brilliant price.16% + 25% + 9% = 50% = Evens.
8/1 = 11.1%
4/1 = 20%
20/1 = 4.8%
11.1% + 20% + 4.8% = 35.9% = between 7/4 and 15/8So if I just take one bet at 8/1 it is in my opinion 5% (16% – 11%) better than the fair price. Taking 8/1 about what I believe has a fair 11/2 chance of winning.
Yet if I back all three, 8/1, 4/1 and 20/1 chances, I am taking a combined price that is over 14% better than what I believe they add up to. The three horses adding up to 50%, a fair Even money chance in my book And taking 35.9%, between 7/4 and 15/8. (50% – 35.9% = 14.1%).
Or put it another way:
11.1 points @ 8/1 returns 99.9 points
20 points @ 4/1 returns 100 points
4.8 points @ 20/1 returns 100.8 points
All three combined is staking 35.9 points to win around 64 points whichever horse wins (100 – 35.9). odds of 1.78/1 (just above 7/4).
So taking a combined price of just above 7/4 about something I believe has an Evens chance of winning.It’s a matter of counting all bets in one race as one. The over all price against the overall possible profit.
If you take 8/13 about one horse in a race Fist, why can’t I take over 7/4 about one of three horses winning? In practice though, I often prefer to back the best value horse/s with saver bets on the others
Value Is EverythingI like your bit about the motor bike and the nitro button – very unhorsey.
To make logical deductions one needs facts. No-one has enough facts to make logical deductions about Frankel beating Dream Ahead and the others on Saturday. One would need accurate answers to thousands of questions, like: what is the ratio of Strong Suit’s performance in the Middle Park against that in the Coventry and the Phoenix; the same for Approve against his Champagne run; how much performance progress have all the contestants made since their last run; will they all be as mentally and physically sound as in their best run to date; etc, etc.
If logic played a significant role in deciding the outcome of horse races, then betting would be impossible. All the professors of Aristotudian logic and multiple system syllogisms would be taking the bookies to the cleaners in every race. If horse racing is akin to any scientific discipline it is more likely to be Chaos Theory than Logic, and there are just too many variables to populate and compute to make choices based on that.
Racing isn’t all about dry as dust logic. There has to be excitement, anticipation, fun and trepidation as well. You’re not an actuary by any chance, are you?
Why Frankel? I want him to win because he is one of the most exciting racehorses I’ve seen since 1962. I think he has the ability to win easily. I think he has exceptional acceleration. He runs for fun. Henry Cecil says that he is a very good two year old. Sorry that they are all subjective comments and lack any logic.
I didn’t mean you must compile sophisticated equations to back your opinion, I simply resented the idea of Quelly and Frankel being so superior that all that it takes is for Quelly to signal Frankel that it’s time to win by 100 lengths.
As for the unpredictable nature of horse racing, I agree, but the same goes for Meteorology and we still pay attention to the forecast. However there are still some logical factors to it, like a horse’s ability to manage the going or the fact that a horse might struggle when stepped up in the trip or class.
All those subjective comments may well be solid facts. You think he has got an exceptional acceleration, maybe he does, and that becomes a fact not an assumption.
I guess what I’m trying to say is that it’s weird stumbling upon such a comment like the one you’ve made. I hope Frankel would stand up to your confidence in him, But I hope Saamid would do the same for me even more
Gonna be one hell of race…
You state :
It’s the percentage of winners at each price that allows any punter to make a profit
That my friend is the biggest crock of sh1t ever posted on here.
If it were true we’d all be using calculators, there would be no racingand certainly no bookmakers.
No Fist, it "allows any punter" if they are good enough at evaluating form. If they are not good at it of course they will not make a profit. There aren’t enough punters wise enough to make sufficient profit to stop bookies existing.
No calculator needed once you’ve learnt the table off by heart.You’re talking sytems there even if you deny it until you are blue in the face and no one in the history of racing has invented a foolproof sytem. Though plenty fools thought they had.
No system, oh no no no no no. Sorry Fist, it’s just something else you don’t understand.
What kind of silly question is this: So you believe you can make a profit with level stakes, by winning less than 62 out of 100 bets all at 8/13? Even you Fist, have to work within the Mathematics Of Betting
You could have 13,000 quid on one 8/13 shot and 13 quid on the other 99 and show a massive profit.
I have never said in my life you can make a level stake profit at any price so stop puting words in to my mouth it’s paramount to lying to save face.
Then you do agree with me Fist, that getting value is important.
The pundit I speak of is Terry Norman who has openly said time and time again he thinks the only value is when you think a horse will actually win. He also said openly he has never known anyone to make money by betting so called "Value" In his postion and his contacts I would suggest he knows a bit more about the truth in within racing than you and I put together.
One man’s opinion does not make anything right Fist.
Hugh Taylor, Dave Nevison, Eddie Freemantle, Steve Mellish, Graham Cunningham, Harry Findlay, Tom Segal, Lydia Hislop, Sean Boyce, John Noakes. I could go on. They are all supporters of Value.I guessI hit a sore point on the staking. The truth hurts doesn’t it? I repeat the fact remains if you ever became successful everything you workedfor would be shot down in flames by the fact no one would lay you the prices you need to make your sytem of betting work. That’s a hard fact and your only response because I speak the truth is to attack with verbal garbage.
I don’t like to use betfair prices on my Daily Lays And Plays thread when similar prices are available with bookmakers. Even if I’ve taken a betfair price. Because it’s more difficult to prove a betfair price. It is also an advisory thread, so even if I can’t get on with one bookmaker, am not going to advise other punters to go elsewhere if they’ve got an account with the one I haven’t. When I quote a price it is the best one on oddschecker, or (if significantly better) betfair.
Of course being successful it’s more difficult to get on, I don’t disagree with that. Apart from when I asked Barry Dennis for a bet on Harbinger, never said how much money I bet. He can tell you how much I (unfortunately) had on Harbinger. At least Barry knows I don’t lie about how much I bet.
As far as Timeform go I have never said I am an expert in how they work. I see Dream Ahead 130 Saamidd 117 and ask myself WTF? The rules must be different for Frankel who I would say "fast emerging as one of the best of his generation" suits him as well as it does Saamidd.
As far as Timeform go even saying what they are saying which youcould say about any horse you want to cover your ass on I put up my case on why I think Dream Ahead was a bit flattered by his defeat of Approve and why I think Saamidd should be rated closer to him.
I mean right now
not what might be after Saturday. Timeform obviously disagree which is their right.
You take that and use Prufock and take a cheap shot but offer no reason why you actually think my opinion is wrong.
Won’t comment too much on your Timeform opinion. Others have done so, much better than I could possibly say.
Don’t need to say how I rate the horse, it is you who criticised Timeform, not I. Let me remind you, I came on here with my opinion about Dream Ahead (backed at 8/1 for the Guineas) and Frankel before Timeforms opinions were known.I don’t know why I bother shooting you down in flames because you’re perfectly capable of doing so yourslef but it passes the time and keeps me amused.
If you say so Fist.
PS Were all old enough and big enough to be able to tell the difference between a simple question and sarcasm aimed at other members. "Don’t have a clue" followed by a question mark doesn’t make it a question especially not from you.
Sorry you took it that way Fist, but from what you’ve said since, if the cap fits…..
It was not aimed at you alone Fist. I just get fed up of people saying X is wrong, without saying how they actually see things. At least you’ve done that now to a certain degree. Thanks for that at least.
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.