- This topic has 291 replies, 53 voices, and was last updated 14 years ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Watched an interesting piece there with Tony Elves ( ye olde Newmarket gallops observer ) who says Frankel did the most amazing piece of work he has seen in a long, long time last Saturday – and will be astounded if Henry Cecil’s colt fails to win the Dewhurst.
I think Saamidd will be his main danger and not Dream Ahead.
I watched that – why couldn’t they say who Frankel worked with? Was he working with something really slow? I read a piece that said in the same lot Twice Over worked with Tranquil Tiger and that elsewhere that day Dream Ahead worked with Vainglory. Why the mystery over Frankel?
- Total Posts 17716
That’s just an opinion, Imperial Call, rather something gleaned from a NOTW-esque tapping of Cecil’s phone!
- Total Posts 17716
There you go Gord listen to "H" he knows ya know
May I "H" ?
Dewhurst
1. Frankel 4/9
2. Saamidd 11/2
3. Dream Ahead 4/1And how far is the wonder horse going to win by wise one?
Sorry I totally forgot.
5lengths, 2.5lengths
Winning time: Fookin Fast
- Total Posts 17716
Ginge when are you going to get it into your think head the only value bet is when you think ahorse will win and does.
Time after time you talk absolute dribble about how you think so and has the best chance but the valie bet is such and such.
You talk about horse A being value at say 8/1 then what do you do?
You back it at 8/1 then in the same race back another horse at 4/1 and another one at 20/1 there for reducing the 8/1 shots value by more than half making him no longer the value bet you claimed he was in the first place.
You state :
It’s the percentage of winners at each price that allows any punter to make a profit
That my friend is the biggest crock of sh1t ever posted on here.
If it were true we’d all be using calculators, there would be no racingand certainly no bookmakers.
You’re talking sytems there even if you deny it until you are blue in the face and no one in the history of racing has invented a foolproof sytem. Though plenty fools thought they had.
What kind of silly question is this: So you believe you can make a profit with level stakes, by winning less than 62 out of 100 bets all at 8/13? Even you Fist, have to work within the Mathematics Of Betting
You could have 13,000 quid on one 8/13 shot and 13 quid on the other 99 and show a massive profit.
I have never said in my life you can make a level stake profit at any price so stop puting words in to my mouth it’s paramount to lying to save face.
The pundit I speak of is Terry Norman who has openly said time and time again he thinks the only value is when you think a horse will actually win. He also said openly he has never known anyone to make money by betting so called "Value" In his postion and his contacts I would suggest he knows a bit more about the truth in within racing than you and I put together.
I guessI hit a sore point on the staking. The truth hurts doesn’t it? I repeat the fact remains if you ever became successful everything you workedfor would be shot down in flames by the fact no one would lay you the prices you need to make your sytem of betting work. That’s a hard fact and your only response because I speak the truth is to attack with verbal garbage.
As far as Timeform go I have never said I am an expert in how they work. I see Dream Ahead 130 Saamidd 117 and ask myself WTF? The rules must be different for Frankel who I would say "fast emerging as one of the best of his generation" suits him as well as it does Saamidd.
As far as Timeform go even saying what they are saying which youcould say about any horse you want to cover your ass on I put up my case on why I think Dream Ahead was a bit flattered by his defeat of Approve and why I think Saamidd should be rated closer to him.
I mean right now
not what might be after Saturday. Timeform obviously disagree which is their right.
You take that and use Prufock and take a cheap shot but offer no reason why you actually think my opinion is wrong.
I don’t know why I bother shooting you down in flames because you’re perfectly capable of doing so yourslef but it passes the time and keeps me amused.
PS Were all old enough and big enough to be able to tell the difference between a simple question and sarcasm aimed at other members. "Don’t have a clue" followed by a question mark doesn’t make it a question especially not from you.
The manner and margin of Dream Ahead’s win was the best 2YO performance i’ve seen since Celtic Swing. At odds of 7/2 i will just have to have a bet regardless of the hype on Frankel.
Besides, he’s not even the best middle-distance prospect in the yard
Don’t leave us waiting in suspense. What else has Cecil got?
I think it is common knowledge that Picture Editor is considered Henry’s top ‘middle distance’ colt for 2011.
- Total Posts 17716
Fist , fair enough and 12/10 for your passion and fire , its admirable , not sure about some of the content though …
I am old enough to remember Apalachee . he was the 2nd coming , and I spent all winter dreaming about him destroying the classics …..sadly he never trained on and my first lesson in racing was served on a very cold plate
These times I enjoy the now …
Keep hitting it though , we need strong views in this room of excited babble
Ricky
The content can be a bit dodgy sometimes. I think we’ve all been in the position when we come across one of our own posts and think who wrote that. I ca nbe as guilty as the exit man for writing as I think the changing my mind when I’ve had time to think things over.
I take your point about Apalachee but I must confess I have no idea who the horse belonged to or was trained by. I did step away from the flat for a while so that shoulde xplain why. I did notice he won the RPT at Donnie.
Another example that people keep puting up is Celtic Swing but I never bought into the wonder horse tag. Not even for one second.
I will never , rightly or wrongly, base my opinion of a horse on the Racing Trophy alone. It is very often a race for horses who will need much further a 3years and if any decent horse is more suited to the trip and has a turn of foot he can very easily be flattered by that particual race.
While he was no doubt a very good horse when he won the Racing Post the hype machine went crazy.
I never backed anything to beat him but more impotatntly I never backed him to win the Guineas. The second I heard he was going to have a prep race sent warning bells of in my head telling me something was wrong or he hadn’t trained on. The same warning beels that told me this year Canford Cliffs wasn’t 100% early doors. Celtic Swing improved slightly between races to finish 2nd which was an excellent effort. That was IMO as good as he ever was. Horses that don’t train on don’t almost win the Guineas that was just lame excuse for punters getting it wrong in the first place.
When Saamidd won I had got stuck into him and was buzzing at how easily he won. I stated on the forum he was a horse and a half (still might be)class from head to toe. This will win the Guineas was my immediate thought
I had a bit of time on my hands and sat down to watch some races and when I saw Frankel I was totally gobsmacked..one minute I see Frankie on a super horse the next I see something that looks better and a lot better at that.
Kinda makes it difficult to get the nind to argue with the eyes and say" well Celtic Swing didn’t do his bit"
I think about the difference between Frankel hype and Dunguib hype for example.
Last jump season for the most part I was dead against running Dunguib in the Champion Hurdle. That’s because through years of experince and listening to jockeys who have ridden in the race say it’s a Grand Canyon apart. With Frankel if he could run in the Champion Stakes I think he’d win, even at the tender age of 2years
I have absolutely no doubt in my mind this horse is street ahead of Dream Ahead slightly less convinced about Saamidd mainly because Frankie calling him Pegasus is enough to make anyone worry, considering the horses he has ridden in his lifetime.
If Sammidd did beat him I’d be very surprised but at least my first impression would be right
As far as next year no matter what wins the horse they all have to beat is Wootton Bassett who is my main bet for the Guineas. He has Guineas written all over him and although I think Frankel will beat him but he’ll be 1/2 for the race if he hacks up on Saturday and at 14/1 EW I think Wooton is a steal.
I appreciate your thoughts and concern
I apprecaite your thoughts but IMVHO what others have done has no bearing whatsoever on what frankel, Saamidd Dream ahead or any otherhorse will do in the train on stakes. Henry reckons all the signs say Frankel will improve and I put his opinion above all stats any day
- Total Posts 17716
Prufock you said FIST
“They [Timeform] are using at yardstick through horses like Approval who is a group winner.”Thank you for confirming at last in print that you do not have a clue as to how Timeform assesses horses. It is worth you digging out some of David Johnson’s blogs or the articles that have appeared on Timeform’s homepage for nearly a decade now. Then again, why bother?
With All respect working with Timeform or buying a Timeform book does not mean you are right.
I had to go to alot of trouble to read David’s blog as it is blocked in Thailand but I have my means.
My argumnet is simple why the huge difference between Saamidd and Dream Ahead. The former beat him easily impressively i only his 2nd race of his life and on his preferred surface, the latter beat him more impressively but on a surface he never acted on.
The most important single factor in a race is the ground and I will be damned if I am wrong about that.
I may not fully understand how Timeform works but I understand how horses work.
I can’t wait to see what happens after Sautudray if Dream Ahead finishes last of the 3………they can always say it was the ground.
Seriously though I am not having ago at Timeform I just believe sometimes they get it very wrong and this could be one of them.
I fully admit After Master Minded shot past Kauto Star and Denman in the ratings and Sea The Stars and Zarkava ratings never computed in my tiny little brain I have taken a bit of a negative view on how their sytem works……I sympathise with them as it must be hell at times but I don’t have to agreee with everything they say and be told WHY BOTHER for having a perfectly reasonable opinion.
Cathcha later ya cheeky moneky.
In amongst all that, Fist, you may finally have twigged that Timeform do not rate horses assuming that other horses are "yardsticks".
Catchya later ya, err, cheeky monkey.
The pundit I speak of is Terry Norman who has openly said time and time again he thinks the only value is when you think a horse will actually win. He also said openly he has never known anyone to make money by betting so called "Value" In his postion and his contacts I would suggest he knows a bit more about the truth in within racing than you and I put together.
The only reason Terry hasn’t met anyone who’s made money backing value is because he hasn’t let any of them get a word in edgeways!
Fist
Once again your facts are wrong regarding Master Minded and I’m getting bored of poitning this out to you so I won’t be doing it again but Master Minded was NEVER rated higher than Denman or Kauto Star. By the BHA, yes, but not by Timeform.
For reference, the Chasers and Hurdlers ratings for 2007/08 were Kauto Star 182, Denman 180p and Master Minded 179. He certainly didn’t ‘shoot past’ either Kauto Star or Denman.
I had to go to alot of trouble to read David’s blog as it is blocked in Thailand
BTW my apologies about that. I shall see about getting the photo changed!
Fist, why don’t you stop slagging off Timeform ratings when you haven’t a clue how their compiled in the first place.
Your making a complete TIT of yourself.
- Total Posts 17716
You’re both right and you’re both wrong think about it.
Saamiddd 8 on the machine. Wonder if I can get evens a place if there’s 8 declared
The steal of the centuary.Looks like Ed Dunlop has bit the bullet and is heading for the Racing Post.
Was wonderering what the pace will be like and how the race will pan out.
My idea would be 2.5 Furlongs out Frankel who already showed he gets a mile well will go for home and Dream Ahead will follow him through. By the furlong marker Frankel will have sealed the deal, Dream Ahead will be out of gas and Saamidd will pass him in the last 1/2 furlong to take second.
Be interesting to see how others think the raece will be run.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.