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- Total Posts 17716
Many bubbles burst in racing but the more I see and hear about Frankel the more convinced I am he’s the real deal.
We shall soon know.
All we will know is that he is a super 2yo,the real deal comes when he has won a Guineas,Derby,King George and Arc! I went to Newmarket to see
Xaar
run away with the 97 Dewhurst and he burnt my fingers in the 2000gns,i thought
Three valleys
was the real deal and yet Milk it bloody Mick beat him in the Dewhurst! as you say bubbles burst at this game,those of us who know their horses know this is a big bubble thats going the same way,its just a matter of time! 5/2 for the Derby now is the most ridiculous price i have ever seen and thats with Corals and Paddy Power! TAPK"s a Wise old Wolf and isn"t following the Lemons,i mean Lemmings off the cliff with Fist leading! Again! You are like a cat with nine lives Fist.you must have used 8 of them up!
Who’s talking about the Derby? My dosh will be firmly in my pocket after the Dewhurst not a race a 8 months away year away.
Frankel isn’t Xaar nor is he Three Valleys he’s frankel plain and simple.
For me he’s already showed more than both horses you mention just by turning up for 2 racecouse canters. With nothing to race with he has shown an unbelievable turn of foot that was so impressive he’s got everyone running to the clock because they can’t believe their eyes.
Not the end of the world if he loses but if I owned him would I be worried? Be a fool not to wonder how good Dream Ahead and Saammid are.
I simply don’t like the form Dream Ahead’s is being rated on.
Every year horses are promoted to favourtism for winning races before the real deals appear.
Approved and Strong Suit fit that bill but I doubt if they will win another Group 2 between them.
Strong Suit was already made to look ordinary by Zoffany who was made to look ordinary by Pathfork.
Timeform say it was strong race siting where 16/1 shot Irish Field finished. That’s a very weak argument IMO
I think Dream Ahead was flattered and his win in France gives more indication to how good That = not good enough.
Stop being so obvious everyone knows I’m a better judge than you and your little jibes totrya and siguise that fact don’t fool anyone
You lucky I’m not a royalist or I would have taken that crown of you months agao. 
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I was never all that excited about St Nicholas Abbey last year because Canford Cliffs was, easily, the one that captured my imagination and felt he had the most potential.
Frankel excites me more than Canford Cliffs. I genuinely think he’s gonna be a major force next year.
However, should the Frankel bubble burst on Saturday, then I’m gonna burst with him!
… but I’m confident it won’t come to that Love the picture Rob
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Timeform don’t know if they’re coming or going, you ask them about their policies and its all abit misty "dont ask me, I am not in charge etc".
Fitz mate honestly, I can provide you with a decent income on the side of my speed ratings for free if you like and everythings recorded for proof purposes.
I am sorry to see you lose a bit with them but don’t be afraid to cut your loses and start up a fresh new bank again for the new season with a new approach.
Feel free to PM me if you want any advice on speed ratings.
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Just because Timeform "rate" Dream Ahead a lb "better" does not mean it is "the tip".
Frankel deserves to be a shorter price because of his potential and likely ground. Although if I was having a bet at current prices it would be Dream Ahead.
Frankel deserves to be favourite because 95% of people within racing think he’s the best thing since Sea Bird II it’s got nothing to do with the ground.
You think he deserves to be fav but you would back against him is as Irish as it comes.
Talk about making the shoe fit, Frankel of course has potential but his rating is absurd.
Pru,
Can I just ask if you have any emprical evidence to support your sectional timing methods or are the underpinnings simply theoretical?
Thanks for asking.
As I have to crank these out by hand, you will have to wait a while for a more comprehensive answer. But I looked at all races run at Kempton in the first week in September and compared Form, Time and Sectional assessments with the horses’ next-time Form effort, as judged by Timeform rating.
As you would expect, Form was the best predictor of next-time Form, with a SD of 19.6 lb. However, Sectional assessments were ahead of Time on 21.1 lb compared with 23.9 lb (170 cases), so it appears to be a better predictor of next-time effort than simple – i.e one dimensional – time analysis, which is one of the key things I am looking for.
The figures are different, however, for those instances where the Sectional assessment exceeds the Form assessment (it would always be =/> than Time due to the methodology) and in which the horse finished in the first 5, i.e. where the horse’s master rating would probably be amended in the light of its Sectional performance, as in Frankel’s case.
There are only 12 examples of this in the period under review, but Sectional assessment is top (19.2 lb) by some way from Form (25.3 lb) and Time (29.9 lb).
This is a small sample, obviously, but if it could be trusted it would suggest that Sectional assessment is a better indicator of next-time performance in such instances than the Form and (simple) Time alternatives. This is another of the key things I am looking for.
I suspect that you looked at the earlier data very differently, and with a view to Sectionals improving profitability in a model which already had a high degree of profitability built into it. Apologies if I am misrepresenting you.
Sectional assessments, taken en masse, do not outperform (good) Form assessments in general. But they complement those Form assessments and sometimes improve upon them.
May report back when I have done a more robust study.
. But I am not on their staff and, you may recall, had nothing at all to do with them for a couple of years not so long ago
Glenn may recall; we other regular waders in the sleepy lagoon don’t
Sense a little bitterness there
Care to expand?
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Why don’t those who criticise Timeform ratings, show how they’d rate the horses concerned and explain why they rate them that way?
Could it be because they don’t have a clue?
Pace in the race is an important part for anyone working out form.
Before you put up challenges to people and accusing therm of not having a clue shouldn’t you put up the reasons why you think they are correct.
I’ll humour you and give you a small insight to where I am coming from.
Before I do I copied this from the Timform feature which seems a bit of strange thing for them to be saying if they think Dream Ahead should be top rated (the best)
"Frankel is impossible to oppose for the rest of the year and he possesses more than enough speed to cope with a drop back in trip to 7f to win the Dewhurst."
That aside for me the best guide on the UK side of the channel to how good or how highly rated Dream Ahead is lies with Approve
He has won 3 races good or good to firm ground.
Approve met with Saamidd on that very same ground who beat him doing handstands by 2 1/4 lenngths. He was getting 3lbs but there can be little doubt Saamaidd could have beat him a lot further.
For that win Sammaidd gets a 117 rating from Timeform.
Approve then goes to Newmarket having his 8th race of the season I hasten to add and comes up against soft ground for the first time in his career. He finished absolutely legless on the ground
He’s joined by Richard Rannon’s Strong Suit who Hannon points out did not act on the ground.
Somehow Timeform come to the conclusion that Saamidd’s easy defeat of Approve on his favoured ground rates 117 but Dream Ahead’s defeat of the same horse on unsuitable ground deserves a 130 rating.
I’ve seen horses beaten a furlong by horses they beat a furlong on unsuitable ground.
I respect the fact he’s a good horse I was one of the few who had him down as different class before he beat Approve but never in the creation is he 14 pts clear of Saamidd if at all.
much ado about nothing springs to mind
lets relax and enjoy the show , after all its only a horse race ..nothing more , after the winner has crossed the line , the bull starts and the whining and speculation over the winter….
Timeform is much watered down now , cant understand the hype
Ricky
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Talk about making the shoe fit, Frankel of course has potential but his rating is absurd.
WTF are you babbling about. You got nothing to say bar unsupported waffle don’t come on here having a go at me.
Can’t abide those who make single line statemnts with nothing to add to the forum but abuse of others.
. But I am not on their staff and, you may recall, had nothing at all to do with them for a couple of years not so long ago
Glenn may recall; we other regular waders in the sleepy lagoon don’t
Sense a little bitterness there
Care to expand?
Not bitter at all. I left Timeform (where I was working only part time in later years anyway) in order to help launch The Sportsman. When that folded I went to Betfair for a short while, but, as Betfair own Timeform, I have become more involved with Timeform again – as a self-employed freelancer – as time has gone by.
I am certainly not the person to comment on what Timeform may or may not have done or taken into account in handicapping terms between, say, 2002 and 2009.
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much ado about nothing springs to mind
lets relax and enjoy the show , after all its only a horse race ..nothing more , after the winner has crossed the line , the bull starts and the whining and speculation over the winter….
Timeform is much watered down now , cant understand the hype
Ricky
Best fun I’ve had since the Deanman V Kauto Star show. Mind you that turned out to be a bit of a letdown so I’m taking your advise and adopting a wait and see attitude. and try to enjoy it no matter what the outcome.
Then I’m going to come back and say I told you so
Just because Timeform "rate" Dream Ahead a lb "better" does not mean it is "the tip".
Frankel deserves to be a shorter price because of his potential and likely ground. Although if I was having a bet at current prices it would be Dream Ahead.
Frankel deserves to be favourite because 95% of people within racing think he’s the best thing since Sea Bird II it’s got nothing to do with the ground.
You think he deserves to be fav but you would back against him is as Irish as it comes.
Oh Fist, you don’t learn do you? How many more times?
Frankel is currently best priced 8/13. That means to be a worth a bet you must believe it to have a better than 62% chance of winning. Any punter having 100 bets all at 8/13 would need to win 62% to break even. Why would you want to (back it) win less than 62% of your bets at 8/13, when it does not show a profit?
Dream Ahead is 7/2, so you need to win just above 22% of your bets at 7/2 to break even. If I believe he has a better than 22% chance then why should I not back Dream Ahead?
I believe Frankel has the best chance of winning so deserves to start favourite.
I believe Frankel has a worse than 62% chance of winning, so won’t be backing him at 8/13.
To back Frankel at 8/13 just because it has the bast chance of winning is clearly wrong.I believe Dream Ahead has a better than 22% chance of winning so may well be backing him at 7/2 nearer the time.
It does have a lot to do with the ground. If it were truly soft (same as the Middle Park) Dream Ahead’s chance would be greater. If it were on the firm side it would be much worse.
Value Is EverythingI am certainly not the person to comment on what Timeform may or may not have done or taken into account in handicapping terms between, say, 2002 and 2009.
Still get that sense of bitterness
Thanks anyway
Regarding the ‘Big 3’ and this coming Saturday:
Show me the boy at 7 and I’ll show you the man
…maybe
…it’s a very, very long winter
"the Bull starts" indeed Ricky
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Just because Timeform "rate" Dream Ahead a lb "better" does not mean it is "the tip".
Frankel deserves to be a shorter price because of his potential and likely ground. Although if I was having a bet at current prices it would be Dream Ahead.
Frankel deserves to be favourite because 95% of people within racing think he’s the best thing since Sea Bird II it’s got nothing to do with the ground.
You think he deserves to be fav but you would back against him is as Irish as it comes.
Oh Fist, you don’t learn do you? How many more times?
Frankel is currently best priced 8/13. That means to be a worth a bet you must believe it to have a better than 62% chance of winning. Any punter having 100 bets all at 8/13 would need to win 62% to break even. Why would you want to (back it) win less than 62% of your bets at 8/13, when it does not show a profit?
Dream Ahead is 7/2, so you need to win just above 22% of your bets at 7/2 to break even. If I believe he has a better than 22% chance then why should I not back Dream Ahead?
I believe Frankel has the best chance of winning so deserves to start favourite.
I believe Frankel has a worse than 62% chance of winning, so won’t be backing him at 8/13.
To back Frankel at 8/13 just because it has the bast chance of winning is clearly wrong.I believe Dream Ahead has a better than 22% chance of winning so may well be backing him at 7/2 nearer the time.
It does have a lot to do with the ground. If it were truly soft (same as the Middle Park) Dream Ahead’s chance would be greater. If it were on the firm side it would be much worse.
"Oh Fist, you don’t learn do you? How many more times?"
Are you for real. How long have you been trying to make your fortune and turn pro gambler……been a while eh?
I’ll put this to you simply so you can understand it.
Not every horse is Frankel not every horse who is priced at 8/13 is an 8/13 shot at least not in my view.
e’g I might have 6500 quid on Frankel but I’m not going to put that same mount or anything like it on a SMS first timer in October am I? In fact if you catching me doing so without knowing it’s the best horse in his yard please shoot me.
Racing/Gambling is not about doing sums or about value.
It’s about spotting opportunites like a Dream Ahead was last time not gambling on him because of the price this time when the odds are he’s going to get his backseide kicked.
What you are not allowing for is someone who is good at spotting winners and knowing when to back heavily and when not to. He’s not the same as the the guy who uses a pin or best in every race God sends.
No 2 punters are the same so your figures can’t possibly apply overall.
The other minus is the way you bet. You can have 2 4 and 5 horses in one race which for real money you would never get on at decent prices and rduce your avergae winning iodds even further. A losing streak would also soon reduce your ability to finance it.
Fine if you are betting in 50p but in hundreds or thousands it a no go area with no future.
I heard a well known successful racing pundit say recently "in his 40 years in racing he knows of no one who ever made fortune backing value but he knows plenty who claims they have" They’re better liars than they are gamblers"
Take heed made before you put yourself in a mental facilty.
Then I’m going to come back and say I told you so
I love your confidence soldier!
I have lost count how many times i have set myself up for a fall and yet still come up smelling of Roses! You on the other hand set yourself up and time and time again you come up stinking of Sh*t! You are up to your neck in it with Frankel,you may keep your head up for now but next year and remember its next year that counts you are going to drown in it! TAPK knows you know!
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