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One thing that should concern anyone thinking of backing Frankel for next yrs guineas is the amount of top class 2yrs that Cecil has trained over the yrs and to my mind only Reference Point and Bosra Sham where the only 2 that seemed to train on. We’ve seen it before with horses like Arazi,Celtic Swing even Johannesburg all expectational 2yr olds who in all there races put up outstanding performances Yet 7 months down the line they didn’t make as much improvement so there dominance was no longer there.
For anyone to say that Frankel doesn’t need to make any improvement to win the guineas 7 months away does not imo know much about racing ( It like Andy Murray winning at queens and they saying well he doesn’t need to improve to win Wimbledon)Of course Frankel needs to keep improving to win the guineas,you have to look at the recent records of fav in the guineas to know that.
Saamidd clearly hasn’t run to form.
For me he has,
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,humpty dumpty had a great fall! He must have landed on your head!!
Ffs! "Pegasus" never took off yesterday! Surely EVEN YOU
could see that!
One thing that should concern anyone thinking of backing Frankel for next yrs guineas is the amount of top class 2yrs that Cecil has trained over the yrs and to my mind only Reference Point and Bosra Sham where the only 2 that seemed to train on. We’ve seen it before with horses like Arazi,Celtic Swing even Johannesburg all expectational 2yr olds who in all there races put up outstanding performances Yet 7 months down the line they didn’t make as much improvement so there dominance was no longer there.
I’m not sure that it’s a good idea to use Arazi and Celtic Swing as examples of horses who did not make normal improvement from two to three.
Arazi had operations on both of his knees at the end of his two-year-old career to remove bone chips. The operations themselves may have caused lasting difficulties, and you have to ask yourself if a horse who is having bits breaking off his knee bones is ever going to be a long term racing propostion in terms of soundness.
Cetlic Swing made what seems normal enough progress between two and three. He beat Bahri in the Greenham, and Bahri went on that season to win two Group Ones, finish second in another two Group Ones, and third in another two. Celtic Swing then lost the 2000 Gns by a head to Pennekamp. Pennekamp was easily the best French 2yo of his year winning both the Salamadre and the Dewhurst and went unbeaten throughout his career until he was injured in the Derby and never ran again. Celtic Swing then won the French Derby with three of the next four home each winning two Group One races within the same season. That was a class field. Celtic Swing then ran in the Irish Derby finishing behind several horses he had easily beaten earlier in the season. The injury he suffered that day ended his career. If I had owned him, I would have called that a successful progression from two to three.
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Saamidd clearly hasn’t run to form.
For me he has,
Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall,humpty dumpty had a great fall! He must have landed on your head!!
Ffs! "Pegasus" never took off yesterday! Surely EVEN YOU
could see that!
All I ever do is bloody repeat myself on here so I can’t be arsed with it any more, what I’ve said in this thread pre and post race stands and the ratings posted speak for themselves regardless of all this form business "Dream Ahead/Saamidd should of run closer to Frankel because thats how the form should of worked out and since this didnt turn out as expected the form is worthless and both horses have run below their best" hear it on here all the time with different horses and the Dewhurst is no exception.
While Saamid was no doubt below par, I don’t think he ran as bad as people are making out, and it was the softer going that ultimately made the difference.
Even after looking dodgy at the start and tanking for much of the journey, if Frankie had pushed the horse out to the line, I believe he’d have been 3-4 lengths closer to Waiters Dream, which would still be a ten length reversal on Saamids 3 length beating of WD just over a month ago at Doncaster. WD, on the other hand, was settled beautifully from the off and wasted nothing over the trip. Looking at his action, it’s safe to assume that WD cleary goes through the ground and would handle softer – Oasis Dream progeny usually do – so he certainly ran to form.
With arguably more scope for improvement than Frankel and Dream Ahead, Saamid is still a big player in next years guineas on suitable ground IMO.
I will find it hard to knock Frankel now that he has won a Group one beating better opposition. He seems to a big baby and if he continues to make the progression from 2-3 he will be a formidable horse next season. I look forward to him taking on the likes of Pathfork and Cassamento who look the the pick of the Irish horses.
It’s also great to see Henry Cecil with exciting prospect for 2011.
JohnJ
All I ever do is bloody repeat myself on here so I can’t be arsed with it any more,
Perhaps you are just misunderstood!
What about this year.A superstart unknown to Fist came from France and demolished the field. Could the same thing happen next year?
I was very impressed, was pretty good no matter how some of the opposition disappointed.
I was also impressed with O’Briens charge, he seemed beat a long way out but he seemed to find a second wind, he could be a G1 winner too. I would like to think Casamento could try and beat these two but looks like he is Godolphin bound and they seem to lower the colours of such horses recently.
Form says Dunboyne Express has a chance at a Classic also.
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Saamid’s run was too bad to be true so I would imagine it is likely to be ignored. He didn’t look beforehand as if likely to be ready to run to his best and that is how it proved.
Saamidd ran to form and ran to a rating which he’d shown us he was capeable of on his 2 previous starts, he just couldn’t handle the fast pace which he’s never encountered before and threw down his tools because he’s not good enough where as Waiter’s Dream and Glor Na Mara could well be sprinters next year.
All indications in the betting said something was a miss with Sammidd and that was before he started acting the goat at the start.
Your confusing not being able to go with being unable to act on the ground which was the first thing Frankie said after the race.
Maye your right and Frankie called him Pegasus because he just likes the name or could it be you are totally wrong?
Frankie’s not in the habit of making a fool of himself by saying a horse is something very special when he’s not and I doubt if he’s starting now
Just out of interest I was looking up what Timeform Racehorses of 1975 had to say about Wollow, since Henry Cecil had been making comparisons between him and Frankel. Timeform did not seem particularly impressed:
“Admittedly his rating of 127 entitles him to be regarded as the best two-year-old to have raced in this country in 1975, but it is not a rating of classic quality”
“But we must say from every point of view – appearance, form, pace – we prefer the French champion Manado.”
“Should Wollow beat Manado and win the 2000 Guineas, the Derby, barring accidents will be as good as over. For Wollow will be much more of an effective force over a mile and a half.”
For those who don’t know, Manado ran eight times as a three-year-old without winning. Wollow won the Greenham, the 2000 Guineas (beating Manado into ninth), the Sussex, the International (now Juddmonte), the Eclipse (on the disqualification of Trepan, but after having lost four or five lengths at the start), but finished only fifth in the Derby.
A further point of interest is that Timeform ranked Manado’s two-year-old form three pounds superior to Wollow’s, but the first five home in the Grand Criterium, Manado’s best race, could muster only one win between them as three-year-olds.
Experts are not always right, are they?
One thing that should concern anyone thinking of backing Frankel for next yrs guineas is the amount of top class 2yrs that Cecil has trained over the yrs and to my mind only Reference Point and Bosra Sham where the only 2 that seemed to train on. We’ve seen it before with horses like Arazi,Celtic Swing even Johannesburg all expectational 2yr olds who in all there races put up outstanding performances Yet 7 months down the line they didn’t make as much improvement so there dominance was no longer there.
You forgot Roussalka, Wollow, Kris, Oh So Sharp, Diminuendo, Chimes of Freedom, Rafha, Kings Theatre and Reams of Verse.
All Group winners at 2 went on to win G1 or what are now G1 at 3. Not to mention many others that won in similar grade at 3. Admittedly HRAC has had a few that didn’t reproduce G1 form at 3. He’s had 12 G1 winning 2 year olds that failed to win at highest level a 3. Four of them won at G2 Approval, Hello Gorgeous, Tenby and Lanfranco. 3 others won at G3 Armiger, Cajun and Passage of Time and 3 retired early due to injury Diesis, Be My Chief and Take Your Place, that leaves Peter Davies who was hopeless and Dunbeath who placed in a couple of good races before being retired.- Total Posts 17716
Unless you believe in the spirit world what happens to Frankel has absolutely no connection to what any other horse did in the past.
People talk about Arazi Celtic Swing etc because they are being totally negative.
I could easily bring up Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Grundy, El Gran Senor, The Minstrel etc etc etc all won the Dewhurst and all were supertars in their own right so Frankel must be one as well.
Frankel is Frankel plain and simple and what’s meant to be will be. What some monkey did in 19 o’plonk can have absolutely no affect on how the horse comes on from here.
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What about this year.A superstart unknown to Fist came from France and demolished the field. Could the same thing happen next year?
That is very true Andy and something the UK are very guilty off. Thinking our horses are the best and the rest don’t count.
Like my pal Zenyatta…………how can she possibly beat Rip Van Winkle was the cry from 90% of the country.
If she was trained here and went and won the breeders she’d be rated 10lbs higher right across the board.Don’t even have to go that far.
Year after year I read the opinions in the forum on what’s going to win novice races at Cheltenham.
You can be sure it’s going to be one of Nicky Hendersons or Alan Kings or PN’s then the Irish, who apart from a couple of the Irish Lads like Cravhills Hill no one has even mentined appear on the day and take the first 3 places.
The media are the same during te build up to the festival and it’s been like that for as far as I can remember.
Right now I couldn’t tell you the name of one French 2yo without looking it up.
Cecil said"I don’t think he [Frankel] was seen in his true colours. If it had been fast ground and he hadn’t been bumped, I think we would have seen him at his best".
I said the same thing in an earlier post. I was not impressed by the final furlong of the race;Frankel looked quite ordinary.Glor na Mara got an equally bad bump.So there must be some validity to the result.The handicapper was not that impressed either.I for one am holding my fire.Why cant people just just enjoy the pleasure of watching a top class 2y old win without tearing the horse to bits,there is no knowing what will happen in the future i just enjoy watching him now.
Frankel won because he coped with bad conditions better than the others. Simples! That’s why he succeeded. Let’s face it … the going was shite and horses were bound to get tired in it!
Frankels best performances have been at a mile. Should he improve come the 2011 flat season, I reckon he’ll lay waste to all in the 2000 Guineas.
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