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Very rarely have a bet in this, in fact I think I’ve only bet one horse ever in this, but I’ll be interested in a couple once the market opens.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2020-10-10/765795
There’s obviously about a dozen from Aidan O’Brien who could come into this, while the likes of Master Of The Seas will obviously be popular too.
It’s the Gosden pair who interest me the most here. Megallan looked very good on debut, and despite being slowly away next time, I don’t think that could be used as an excuse for his defeat, he had every chance. Willling to forgive him that though, and looks the type to bounce back. Whether he’ll be a big enough price for me to consider him, well that’s another matter.
The one who probably will be a big enough price is Mithras. He was really slowly away on debut, but the way he came on at the end really caught the eye, he was fairly motoring. I’d imagine he’d very much be the second string for the yard, but I’ll be happy to chance him at a decent price.
Mithras
Megallan our tomorrow at Newbury, and he’s currently 33’s for this, so hands tied with him, I really have to bet him here, considering I thought he’d be miles shorter.
It’s highly unlikely I’ll be able to bet him for this “in race” tomorrow, so although it’s hardly going to be a massive one, I might as well kick off at 33’s.
To be honest, the fact that he’s 33’s almost puts me off, but what the hell.
I’ll hold off with Mithras just now, as I think the 14’s is massive for Wembley, so from rarely a bet in this, to a couple Antepost.
Megallan 33’s (Cashed out)
Wembley 14’sThere is some interesting prices on offer
Etonian at 14’s jumps out although I have heard that the horse is being aimed at 3 different races this one has been named more often than not. I don’t think Hannon would run both Etonian and Chindit at this stage of there careers, I think Chindit is a little on the short sideAgree Nath, decent market.
Good but not great from Megallan, and I was surprised at being able to cash out, but I took it.
Attention back to his stablemate Mithras now.
Wembley 14’s
Hannon saying on his blog that both of his will run
Plenty of time for that to change…
Mithras poor there, which is a surprise, as he got halved in price for this today.
I’ll stick with Wembley.
Both of Hannons horse’s declared.
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2020-10-10/765795/
This is a very tricky race this year, what with 2 definite 2000 Guineas winners from the Hannon yard running!
This is a very tricky race this year, what with 2 definite 2000 Guineas winners from the Hannon yard running! We debate him regularly, but 2000 Guineas record:
2020- Mums Tipple- hadn’t a hope of staying anyway.
2019- King Of Change 66/1 2nd.
2018- Nothing
2017- Barney Roy 7/2 2nd.
2016- nothing
2015- Ivawood- 10/1, 3rd.
2014- Night Of Thunder 40/1, 1st.That’s since he started…..You can debate the “quality” of the race + the horses but i think it’s fair to say Richard Hannon Jr has a very good record in the 2000 Guineas.
Fair shout Jack, I just like joking about it to be honest. He loves a “Guineas Horse”! He said both Threat and Al Madhar were Guineas horses at some point last year. I think he thinks all his horses are Guineas horses!
Can’t knock the guy for positivity!
Another very tricky Juvenile race! One to dig into trends to try and help. Frankel is the only horse from the last 12 winners to have run in an 8F race last time out, so that’s a negative for Cadillac as is the fact he lost on soft over 7F in the Futurity. Not sure he beat anything either in the Juvenile Stakes, Van Gogh only just won a maiden on his next start.
No horse in the last 12 runnings had run in the Mill Reef, so that’s a negative against both Alkumait and fivethousandtoone, as is the Dosage index, Alkumait fails on most of those trends and looks a sprinter to me.
Fivethousandtoone looks like he will improve for the step up to 7F and just got outpaced by Alkumait last time out. Has a chance, but might not be at his best on soft.
Chindit fails on dosage points and B point trends. He’s drawn very well, but ran from behind in the Champagne, and also in his Listed Ascot win, so could lose that draw advantage a bit if he’s taken in behind again. Should go okay on the ground being out of Wootton Bassett. Albasheer is possibly a better horse than Chindit but isn’t well drawn and also ran from behind in the Champagne, possibly won’t like the ground as much either.
Etonian, for all his promise doesn’t meet the last 12 lowest RPR trend and neither do most of the others left except for the National Stakes horses.
It does look like for me all about that race.
St Marks Basilica was thought fast enough to go off fav for the Phoenix Stakes, it didn’t work out for him, but he’s out of Siyouni, who won on Very Soft as a 2 year old and produces horses that go on soft ground, Sottsass the most recent high example of this. It might have been a little too quick for him on the Phoenix and he doesn’t get away all that quick so was too far behind that day also. He won his maiden next time out on Soft and then finished third in the National Stakes on his last start. Again he wasn’t away all that quick and he’s another that could negate his good draw in 12 by being slowly away.
There is nothing much between SMB and Wembley for me. Wembley should also go on the ground okay, won his maiden on Heavy but his run from behind style last time from a draw in 2 is not going to be easy either. Out of the two over 7f, SMB should be quicker on breeding, Wembley looks like being a middle distance colt for next year, so might need a mile already.
Thunder Moon looks the obvious one and if there is any exciting stand out colt in the field, he looks like the one based on that run in the National Stakes. He could also be marked up for that after trouble in running. However, Dewhurst winners are usually a little more experienced, no horse in the last 12 has run as few as twice only, as Thunder Moon has. He isn’t that well drawn in 5 and I’m not sure he’s going to enjoy the ground that much. Zoffany ran twice on Soft and was beaten into 3rd @ 6/4F in the National Stakes and finished next to last as a 3 year old in the Prix Maurice De Gheest, so the soft ground tomorrow could blunt his turn of foot that he showed on Good ground in the National.
So, in a year where picking Juvenile winners is not easy, after backing an outsider to win the Fillies Mile today. I’m going to take a punt again on an outsider and go with St Marks Basilica.
I’m worried about how slowly away he usually is, so hoping for better this time and hopefully they don’t go off at a blistering pace so he gets a nice position fairly prominent on the rail. Then no reason at all why he can’t finish in the first 4 at least, he still looks very green last time out and Soft ground could also be the key for him to be at his best.
St Marks Basilica 14/1 EW (4places with Skybet and WH)
Nice write up Frenchy, one thing i’d say is Zoffany might not have been brilliant on soft, but more importantly the majority of his progeny do handle it well.
Yeah could be right Jack, it wouldn’t be a big negative against Thunder Moon, I’m more concerned with his experience and draw. I just think this year out of any year it’s worth having an EW pop at outsiders for the big Juvenille races to finish the season. There doesn’t look anything amazing so far unless of course Thunder Moon does go on from the National and win well tomorrow.
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