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Physical development is only part of the story.<br>Many horses can, and do, go on improving far beyond their 5th year, eg. Rooster Booster. Hardy Eustace, Quito, Legal Set, and many, many more, occasionally right up to 12 and 13 years of age. <br> Not only do they get fitter and stronger, they can also mature mentally, gain in confidence, and become more adept at running and jumping, none of which the wfa scale allows for.<br>Fully mature or not, on the evidence so far, Detroit City has not yet reached his peak, and it would be a brave man who says he can’t improve enough to win a Champion Hurdle. <br> His chances may be better over further, so were Hardy Eustace’s, and he never won a Triumph Hurdle.
I think the crux is not whether or not DC can win it – clearly the possibility is there that he will. What we are, in effect, discussing is not whether he can or can’t but what the probabilities are, in terms of % or, if you like, odds.
Pru – because a flat horse is deemed ‘mature’ at 5 doesn’t necessarily mean that a jumps horse is ‘mature’ at the same age. It is fairly clear form all available evidence that 5 does not represent the general age at which a hurdler is capable of giving his best performance.
There are exceptions, granted, and I understand the point you are making may be that, because of his flat breeding/background, Detroit City is more likely to be an early developer than, say, a bumper winner bought out of a field at 4.
It is, on balance, unlikely however that he will be at his peak at 5, IMO. He may not need to be though. The division may not be altogether strong and he could concievably win it next March and then still find a few more pounds improvement after that. It depends on the performance of the opposition as much as it does his own.
In my view though he still has a lot to prove. 4/1 is very skinny given his achievements and he’s around an 8/1 shot in my book. Firm lay at current prices.
Regarding the stats. They are powerful and I’d sit up and take notice of any stat which said 70 horses of a particular age group had tried and failed to win any race of this nature, before investigating more thoroughly (by looking at win/place probabilities against actual and comparing with performance of other age groups and in similar races, for example). Age related stats are very powerful (and undervalued) indicators of potential winning probabilities in jumps racing. I would gladly oppose any 5-y-0 running in the Champion Hurdle on stats alone.
Whether or not Detroit City will win the champion hurdle next year, he has certainly prompted some lively debate, which can only be good.
Here is a list of the 5-Y-O Champion Hurdle winners from the 50’s onwards:
1952 Sir Ken<br>1962 Anzio<br>1965 Kirriemuir<br>1968 Persian War<br>1976 Night Nurse<br>1985 See You Then
I don’t know much about Anzio or Kirriemuir, but the rest of the list shows he will probably have to be some horse to win it next year. I think we are overdue another one ;)
The other interesting age related stat is the number of 9-Y-O+ winners since the 50’s:
1950 Hattons Grace 10<br>1951 Hattons Grace 11<br>1980 Sea Pigeon 10<br>1981 Sea Pigeon 11<br>1992 Royal Gait 9<br>2003 Rooster Booster 9
That suggests that the 2nd favourite also has it all to do. Macs Joy anyone?!
The contention that 5yos cannot win the Champion Hurlde has been made several times on Betfair (yeh, I know): I wasn’t referring specifically to this thread.
Cormack, I think you’ve largely covered it. I do not think that a 5yo is immature per se, but a lot of horses are brought along steadily (not running 15 times by mid-November of their 4yo year, and not winning a valuable handicap hurdle by a wide margin off 148) with a view to sustaining their form a long way beyond their fifth year.
This simply does not apply to Detroit City, and nor does the usual Triumph Hurdle hoodoo guff. He is a mature, fairly experienced and clearly more than usually talented individual. That is far more relevant than his age.
I just wish he was a backable price. As with others, the odds do not really appeal.
The reason he is around 4-1 is simple. If he was any bigger we would all be on, and if he does continue to improve the bookies would have a big pay out come champion hurdle day. If he wins what was the bula he will be closer to 2-1.
Mordin On Detroit City
DETROIT CITY THE FASTEST JUMPER IN YEARS
DETROIT CITY (45) has run almost unbelievably fast before. In fact I’ve awarded him speed ratings that I never thought I’d give a hurdler of his age. But the time he recorded when blasting home by 14 lengths in Cheltenham’s Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap Hurdle was something altogether different to what even he has achieved before. It merits the biggest speed rating I’ve given a national hunt horse in years (and yes I’m aware the rails were moved overnight on the hurdles course; I’m basing his rating on a comparison with the other hurdle races and the bumper run on the same course not the chases).
I was seriously concerned before the race that Detroit City wouldn’t act on the soft ground. So was his trainer. After all Detroit City’s worst lifetime run came the only time he previously raced on this sort of ground. But this time he seemed to revel in it just as much as he did the lightning fast ground when he broke the course record in the Triumph Hurdle.
I confess I also had grave misgiving’s about Detroit City in the Cesarewitch as he’s a big horse that has previously seemed to need a run to get him fully fit. But now you won’t catch me ever doubting his ability to do anything again. After this run I’m fully convinced Detroit City is that rarest of all racehorses, a genuine champion, the kind you’re lucky to see once or twice a decade.
In my opinion the last time we had a juvenile hurdler this good was almost 40 years ago when Persian War took the Triumph and proceeded to win the next three Champion Hurdles. If you can find a bookie who’ll give you 10-1 against Detroit City replicating that feat I’d bite their arm off. This is a very special horse.
Its not me …its Maudlin!
Time ratings on the jumps are not something i would stake my life on…
But in many ways, im not that suprised by his conclusion
Detroit City is without doubt a very exciting prospect, but I wouldn’t go overboard about his speed rating for his latest win. The Racing Post’s Topspeed has it at 158, which is very good indeed, but about a stone below what is needed to win a Champion Hurdle in a good year. If he continues to progress, he could achieve that and may well justify Nick Mordin’s high opinion. I hope so, but let’s not get carried away just yet.
i’m interested to know where you got this clivex?
my understanding is that nm’s figures are more sophisticated than the racing post and that’s the whole point isn’t it? he takes account of gale winds blowing behind them etc…but interestingly he can’t take full account of the rails being moved – which for me puts a question mark about the state of the ground that day. There was a big worry about really soft – i wouls question was it really soft as that is probably the all-important factor in nick’s rating
I hope this doesn’t kick off the speed ratings debate again, but I really don’t believe that Nick Mordin’s speed ratings are any more sophisticated than Topspeed’s figures.
I believe he(Mordin) adopts a different approach to the RP, but the logic of the RP ratings, both form and speed (which are, by the way, interrelated) can stand up to very close scrutiny.
I have defended these ratings on several occasions because I have confidence in the methods used to compile them. These methods have been tried and tested over many years and are very similar to those used by Timeform.
<br>The position of the rails can’t be relevant in this case as Johnson took Detroit City round the middle to outside, so presumably travelled further than the official distance anyway.
AP
sorry, just had dinner with some guests – interesting we can rule out the rail position – i know there’s been some speed figures debates in the past then, but how can NM rate it highest ever against anything else – surely it’s quite simple – he’s taking account of something that other speed ratings are not – and is that something important.
I’m new – and if i’m going over old ground – and conclusion is RP topspeed is good enough – just tell me so and i’ll shut up
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