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It seems to me that some people just dont get ballydoyle/coolmore.They put the jockeys on the horses that will suit them.rvw has always looked a ricky ride and johnny has ridden him in all his races so it is of no surprise that he is on him. look back over the last few yrs and jockey booking from ballydoyle in the classic races has made no difference what so ever.
It seems to me that some people just dont get ballydoyle/coolmore.They put the jockeys on the horses that will suit them.rvw has always looked a ricky ride and johnny has ridden him in all his races so it is of no surprise that he is on him. look back over the last few yrs and jockey booking from ballydoyle in the classic races has made no difference what so ever.
I understand them perfectly well. The stable jockey may get it wrong in terms of which is the better horse, but in terms of how many victories they give up, you could count on one hand.
I’ve always had a hunch that JM would plump for RVW.
Fist, I think you better have a word with that mate of yours.
Only joking. Today, I was watching Tom O’Ryan interview ch4’s Jim McGrath on the subject of this weekend’s big races.
McGrath said that Johnny Murtagh had told John Francome two weeks ago ( during a game of golf ) that he considered Rip Van Winkle to be right up there with the very best horses he has ever ridden.
If that is the case, then it’s hardly surprising he chose him as his Derby mount.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
In 30 years of properly watching the Derby, this may be the most intriguing. The theory that Ballydoyle have previously had success when they fired fewer arrows is surely forgetful of the fact they now have 4 powerhouse middle distance stallions, 3 of whom have already produced Derby winners. So the numbers must surely go up from the days when they only had old Sadlers Wells firing shells.
More interesting surely is the fact that they don’t have a single ‘designed for purpose’ pacemaker entered. Golden Sword looked the most likely leader but he is already a group winner and himself had a pacemaker in France on his debut.
It is is difficult to second guess Ballydoyle, wasn’t it yourself Zarkava that said the O’Brien can do extraordinary things in terms of trend busting?..it may be a bit premature to rule out their six genuine, trial winning, properly bred contenders on the basis of the pairing with six very competent jockeys.
For what it is worth my hunch would be that maybe Masterofthehorse is the one that could revert to previous tactics and be sent forward for pacemaking.
It is is difficult to second guess Ballydoyle, wasn’t it yourself Zarkava that said the O’Brien can do extraordinary things in terms of trend busting?..it may be a bit premature to rule out their six genuine, trial winning, properly bred contenders on the basis of the pairing with six very competent jockeys.
He can indeed, but you can’t just constantly follow his horses in these Classics or you’ll lose money for sure. The one that comes closest to winning on the trends is Fame and Glory. Next would be Age of Aquarius and then Rip Van Winkle, for what it’s worth.
I just think that we’ve been here enough times to see that when O’Brien plays the numbers game (although you make a perfectly good and valid point about the stallions), he doesn’t always have great success.
However, when you look at his record in Group 1s when firing 1 bullet, it’s quite incredible. I can’t remember the stats 100% (they were posted around the time of the Eclipse + Mount Nelson), but you’d easily be in profit backing them.
rvw has always looked a ricky ride and johnny has ridden him in all his races so it is of no surprise that he is on him.
You’re not the first person to have said this. In what way has he always looked a tricky ride?
He can indeed, but you can’t just constantly follow his horses in these Classics or you’ll lose money for sure. The one that comes closest to winning on the trends is Fame and Glory. Next would be Age of Aquarius and then Rip Van Winkle, for what it’s worth.
I just think that we’ve been here enough times to see that when O’Brien plays the numbers game (although you make a perfectly good and valid point about the stallions), he doesn’t always have great success.
I agree that following him blind will result in a loss but surely we have more ideas and information available to us to allow an informed selection?
I backed Age Of Aquarius and RVW last year and added Golden Sword after he ran in France. I am against FaG and very much against Masterofthehorse, BBI is respected but will go unbacked, I think.
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From the same source at told me he would ride Rip Van Winkle in the 2000 Guineas told me 2 hours ago he has now made his mind up.
Nothing on the RP website yet but if it turns out ot be true it’s not looking good for those of us, myself included who backed RVW
He rides Fame and Glory
Reliable as ever Fist- ATR report Johnny on Rip, Ryan Moore BBI, Shamie Heff on Fame and Glory
Bit embarrasing
but having Backed Gan Ahmars at 9/1, RVW at 6/1 plus a few quid on Murtagh to tide him I’ll get over it. - Total Posts 17716
I’ve always had a hunch that JM would plump for RVW.
Fist, I think you better have a word with that mate of yours.
Only joking. Today, I was watching Tom O’Ryan interview ch4’s Jim McGrath on the subject of this weekend’s big races.
McGrath said that Johnny Murtagh had told John Francome two weeks ago ( during a game of golf ) that he considered Rip Van Winkle to be right up there with the very best horses he has ever ridden.
If that is the case, then it’s hardly surprising he chose him as his Derby mount.
When you think what horses he has ridden in the past that’s a very bold statement. Everytime I look at the Guineas replay and see how easily Sea the Stars beat him and Gan Amhras it sends shivers up my spine. I just get the impression, more from what I have read than what I saw, none of the two were at their best.
I am under no illusions that if Sea the Stars gets the trip RVW will need to have improved 7lbs to 10lbs beat him plus he also has to get the trip. You have to take into account that Sea the Stars may also have improved a few pounds.
Gan Ahmras may not have the toe of these two but it would seem is the most likely of the three to get the trip and he wasn’t beat that far.
With Murtagh getting off Fame and Glory it could mean as I suspected he was flattered by his victory over Mourayan.
I could see the Guineas horses starting 1st 2nd and 3rd favs now. 9/4 Sea The Stars, 3/1 Rip Van Winkle, 4/1 Gan Amras with Flame and Glory drifting out to around 5/1 on the day.
The Kite Wood will probably stuff them all. The joys of racing
Coolmore want a win no less, so there must be a plan in place and they have a very big danger to their chances of winning in Sea The Stars who should be given the doubt that he does stay as he accelerated when Kinane wanted to.
Like Fist says every time you replay The 2000 Guineas, Sea The Stars just looks more impressive.
If Ballydoyle lose then there maybe some embarrased faces.
If Ballydoyle lose then there maybe some embarrased faces.
I am confused by your thinking RR…why would a win for Sea The Stars be embarrasing for Ballydoyle, disappointing yes but why embarrasing?
Have you seen the horses Ballydoyle are fielding, how expensive some of them were, Coolmore would not be happy if they let this one slip with the quality they have, and the one they couldn’t get is actually the danger to them winning it.
How expensive they were?? i owuld say pretty cheap really
Fame and Glory 190,000 Guineas
Age of Aquarius 1,400,000 Euros
Rip Van Winkle 170,000 Guineas
Golden Sword 165,000 Guineasnot exactly the millons of dollars they have paid in the past
Have you seen the horses Ballydoyle are fielding, how expensive some of them were, Coolmore would not be happy if they let this one slip with the quality they have, and the one they couldn’t get is actually the danger to them winning it.
How much would Godolphin pay for them?
Starting to think that Ladbrokes 40-1 Golden Sword is a bit on the big side, especially 10-1 a place- he’ll assume the role I hoped Freemantle would up front out of trouble and is guaranteed to stay, unlike a few of those ahead of him in the market- I’ll be adding him to Black Bear Island tomorrow.
I agree carv’….40/1 is a generous offer not just because of the clue given in the Noailles or the style and time of his Chester win but also his physique and confirmation which are spectacluar and only a couple of colts will match on Saturday.
With Murtagh getting off Fame and Glory it could mean as I suspected he was flattered by his victory over Mourayan.
You`re joking right? Who gives a flying one what some jockey thinks. The guy wasn`t even on him in the Derrinstown. And Ballydoyle number 1`s have a habit of picking the wrong one in the Derby. When Fame and Glory wins on saturday a lot of RIP backers are going to look at best sheep, at worst plain mug punters.
Only joking. 
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