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Always loved denman as he always runs a race to win but you have to consider what KS would have done to that field off a mark of 161
I think they have lost their marbles and have bet Kauto again today ay 5/2. Denman was very impressive but had say Jonjo’s been in there with the same weight instead of Denman would he not have won just as easily.
You have to forget it was the Hennessy for a moment and look at what hapened in the race.
The fav and main danger has gone by the seventh fence. They went so slow for the first mile I could have kept up with them on a push bike.The pace was uneven and didn’t suit a lot of the staying horses. When it suddenly increased they were all in trouble.
H said he reminded him of Mill House and I he did look the part but when you look at the 2nd, 3rd and 4th he beat nothing in that race.
I would rather see him do that to a class horse the way Kato Star has done it time and time again before I would agree he is in the same class.
He is very good but when Kauto comes upsides him at cheltenham and Ruby says go ihe will leave him for dead………No horse has managed to blunt Kautos burst of speed when he is asked and i don’t see Denman doing it either.
Coral have priced up Denman @ 6/4 for next March’s Gold Cup.
Kauto Star is next @ 2/1.
Another over-reaction?
Depends how you look at yesterdays performance i suppose
If you view it as a tip top run with probably more to come, then Corals probably have both horses at about the right price
The most surprising reaction to yesterday’s race was the drift in Exotic Dancer’s odds on Betfair. If Denman gets his conditions in March then Exotic Dancer gets his as well and he would have a great chance of winning a Gold Cup off a strong pace on soft ground. He was double figures this morning and is currently 9/1 against Denman’s 9/4. It doesn’t make sense to me.
Agreed with Gus. A soft ground GC is for my money the best chance ED has of collaring Kauto, and Denman will make sure there’s a better gallop set in the race than there was last year, which will suit ED no end. Considering he was only beaten 2.5l in March, at 9/1 he is the value as he has so often been the last season or so.
The Hennessey used to be one of the most exciting races of the NH season but standards have slipped of late. Would Denman have won in such a facile style with a lowly-weighted One Man or Teeton Mill in the field?
The Hennessey used to be one of the most exciting races of the NH season but standards have slipped of late. Would Denman have won in such a facile style with a lowly-weighted One Man or Teeton Mill in the field?
The top weight when One Man won the Hennessey was off an OR of 159, compared to Denman’s own 161. For winning the race, One Man received a RPR of 152 in 1994, Denman has been given 175. There were plenty of potential progressive sorts in yesterday’s race, but one way or another it just didn’t go for them. Say what you will about Denman’s ability compared with other top chasers, but I’m pretty certain time will show he’s one of the classiest sorts to run in the race for a good few years.
The top weight when One Man won the Hennessey was off an OR of 159, compared to Denman’s own 161. For winning the race, One Man received a RPR of 152 in 1994, Denman has been given 175. There were plenty of potential progressive sorts in yesterday’s race, but one way or another it just didn’t go for them. Say what you will about Denman’s ability compared with other top chasers, but I’m pretty certain time will show he’s one of the classiest sorts to run in the race for a good few years.
In terms of RPR’s One Man went on to post a figure of 178, Teeton Mill 174 in the same season as their Hennessey win. Do you think that, either, Denman would have been capable of giving the weight to those horses, or that any of the lowly-weighted runners in Saturday’s race will go on on this season to replicate One Man or Teeton Mill? My answer to both questions is no. Perhaps Denman will prove his worth, time will tell, then again perhaps his quirkiness, which seems to have been forgotten, will resurface!
Its silly season I can’t believe Denman has replaced Kauto Star at the head of the Gold Cup betting. We’re talking about the best chaser since Deserty Orchid. Denman puts up one top notch handicap performance and suddenly bookies are treating him as a god amongst horses.
Crazy!!
5/2 Kauto Star looks an almighty price really. Who’d have thought he’d be that price, having done nothing wrong himself. Denman was very, very impressive yesterday. Awesome even. However, his biggest tests are perhaps still to come. On the other hand KS has passed every examination with flying colours.
I’d price the Gold Cup 6/4 Kauto Star, 5/2 Denman. Not under-rating Denman, I don’t think, as it is a massive compliment to him to have him that close to Kauto Star.
The way I thought about it today was that I’d be very confident that Kauto Star would beat Exotic Dancer. I wouldn’t have quite the same level of confidence about Denman doing it, based on all the evidence we have to hand.
I’d price up
11/10 Kauto Star
7/2 Exotic Dancer
5 DenmanThe rest name your price, if one of those three doesn’t win I’ll be absolutely amazed.
If something happened to Kauto (god willing it won’t) then look at Exotic Dancer’s record he’s the obvious alternative. Denman is the new kid on the block.
The rest are either levels below or won’t stay (in the case of My Way De Solzen).
The Hennessey used to be one of the most exciting races of the NH season but standards have slipped of late. Would Denman have won in such a facile style with a lowly-weighted One Man or Teeton Mill in the field?
Denman would have stood no chance if one or the the other of those handicap good things had been in the race or if something of a similar ilk was in contention.
The most surprising reaction to yesterday’s race was the drift in Exotic Dancer’s odds on Betfair. If Denman gets his conditions in March then Exotic Dancer gets his as well and he would have a great chance of winning a Gold Cup off a strong pace on soft ground. He was double figures this morning and is currently 9/1 against Denman’s 9/4. It doesn’t make sense to me.
I dunno what bookies are doing with Exotic Dancer, his odds are always way too big. I suppose they take the view that he’s taken on Kauto so many times and not beaten him that they can price up him at big prices because unless Kauto falls Exotic is running for second.
On form Exotic Dancer is clearly the second best staying chaser in training and very consistant but his odds never reflect that.
I’ll have a five thousand to one please Flash!
Firstly many plaudits to my old mucker Harry the Dog for having the balls to run him in the race under top weight. Secondly there has been no overreaction- this was on a par with Burrough Hill Lad in the same race or my namesake Carvills Hill in the Welsh National- it’s the way he did it that is so impressive- he was tanking the whole way and his jumping was fantastic. I can see him going on about 6 out in the Gold Cup and getting them all off the bridle, even Kuato. Kuato will have to jump as well as he did at Haydock over the toy fences to have any chance of coming from behind this monster- I’m betting he won’t. I thought Paddy Power’s post-race 3/1 was more than fair and had a good bet. I’ll be tempted to get rid of a bit at 2/1 or less as these big chasers are hard to keep sound but if he gets to the Festival healthy he’ll win. Roll on Christmas in Leopardstown where he can strut his stuff in his homeland for his increasing fan club here- get there early!The Hennessey used to be one of the most exciting races of the NH season but standards have slipped of late. Would Denman have won in such a facile style with a lowly-weighted One Man or Teeton Mill in the field?
I reckon One Man would be a slightly better horse than Stalbridge Colonist was and on a par with What A Myth….considering Arkle was beaten giving away 35lbs to SC and Denman won by 10 lengths then the answer has got to be: Never in amillion years………..he would be 1/6 fav for the Gold Cup right now if he had done that to the likes of One Man.
In Gold Cup terms the race was crap and those who think Denman has any chance of beating Kauto are in for a rude awakening come Gold cup day.
Exotic Dancer is still the main danger IMO he has proved that already. Denman has won a really bad Hennessy with not one top class horse within a mile of it. That’s a far cry from running Kauto to a length at levels.
5/2 about Kauto is the best price for a horse I have seen in years. Those who have read my posts will know I don’t bet very often, but I am betting Kauto for the Gold Cup again today. Every penny I won of Denman is going back on Kauto cos he’s just too good a price to miss.
I’m a big Kauto fan and Denman was quite brilliant on Saturday so I’m going to be saying nightly prayers that they both make it to March.
However, I can see Denman powering up that hill and I just don’t know whether KS will be able to live with that as I think he’s better over a bit shorter…
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