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personaly i dont think he will get the trip unless they put him out the back early on, big burley type, will be treading water turning in and will be vulnerable to lightly weighted stayers. He has never come across to me as an out and out stayer, and 3miles 2 is as far as he looks to want to go at the end of his races. just my opinion!!
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The King of Ante-Post will say this only once! If Denman runs off a mark of 182,he carrys 11-12lb,that would put
Halcon Genelardais
in on 10-00lb and 4lb out of the handicap! Who finished 4th to Denman in the 08 Gold Cup off levels,and himself carried 11-12 to finish a gallant 2nd in the Scottish National?
Wheres my 16/1?Dream on, Tapk.
Where did he finish in last season’s Gold Cup – or the Welsh National that he’d run so well in for the previous 3 seasons? The horse is gone at the game, accept it and move on.Can’t agree, Reet. Halcon’s simply been running off too high a mark to be winning competitive handicaps. He needs proper soft ground and a marathon trip since he’s simply not fast enough for 3m 2f, hence he was pulled up in last year’s Gold Cup on good to soft. If he’s getting 26lbs from Denman, without a shadow of a doubt I will be all over him. His career best is 147, beaten a head off 156, 5th and 2nd in the Scottish National.
19Apr08 Ayr ( 33 Gd ,RPR170 )
He’s produced yet another awesome weight-carrying performance, he’s run very well for a novice, but the faster ground probably didn’t help him. – Alan King, trainer
nb. absolutely no idea what he means about running well for a novice, unless he’s referring to Iris De Balme.
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Zarkarva
In last season’s Welsh National, he was beaten 37l off a 7lb lower mark than he’d finished 3rd off the previous year, and 1lb higher than he finished 2nd off the year before.
His RPR for for his last run in the race was 132, some 34lb lower than any of his 3 previous attempts.
I’ll repeat – he’s gone at the game.And King’s disastrous form all season has nothing to do with that? Ffs he finished 4th in the Betfair Chase, beaten 26L by the front 2. Finished only 1 1/2L behind Madison du Berlais. 26L behind Imperial Commander puts him in a clear 3rd in the Gold Cup. Cannot accept he’s gone and IMO very foolish to write him off.
I might add, Le Beau Bai’s connections felt the ground wasn’t soft enough for him and the official going was heavy. Could easily have been good to soft.
- Total Posts 17716
Dave 22
Virtually the whole of Denman’s form suggests he’ll get the Scottish National trip standing on his head. This year’s Gold Cup run (on ground faster than either of his previous appearances) suggests he was done for speed rather than stamina, a view obviously also taken by his connections.Zarkava
The ground at was unquestionably heavy at Chepstow on Welsh National day, RP timed-ground verifies that completely.
As i’ve said before, the Betfair chase was run as a sprint for the last 6 furlongs (which undoubtedly favoured the first 2, with good form over shorter) and the form of the also-rans consequently cannot be taken literally . Imo, HG has been out of form all season and longer.The King of Ante-Post will say this only once! If Denman runs off a mark of 182,he carrys 11-12lb,that would put
Halcon Genelardais
in on 10-00lb and 4lb out of the handicap! Who finished 4th to Denman in the 08 Gold Cup off levels,and himself carried 11-12 to finish a gallant 2nd in the Scottish National?
Wheres my 16/1?Dream on, Tapk.
Where did he finish in last season’s Gold Cup – or the Welsh National that he’d run so well in for the previous 3 seasons? The horse is gone at the game, accept it and move on."I have a dream" said One certain King! Halcon as Zarkava quite rightly says has been clobbered by the handicapper,he ran to a mark of 169 in a Scottish National! He Won the Welsh National off a mark of 145 giving Mon Mome a stone! He finishes 2nd int he same race off a mark of 156,he is now down to a very lenient 150,now if Mr Kings horses can start to show their true abilities then Denman will struggle to carry 11-12 over 4 miles with Halcon on a mere 10-00! Just my opinion like! When am i ever right reet eh?
I beg to differ.
Denman would face a much more straightforward task over 3m5f at Auteuil off level-weights, than he would giving 2-stone to everything at Ayr over 4m.
He would also collect about £150K more in prize-money for winning the Grande-Steeplechase de Paris.
It’s a no-brainer as far as I can see.
It definitely is a no-brainer, and I’d like to see him over there as much as yourself, Grass.
I suppose, though, that given the numbing lack of enterprise of British trainers in sending horses over to Auteuil will probably win out again, the Ayr assignment is the least worst alternative. At least we’ll have a bit more of an idea as to what he can offer hulking big weights over genuine marathon trips.
I’d not want to see him anywhere near the Betfair Bowl again unless the ground turned desperate. The speed test of the Mildmay course just doesn’t play to his strengths, to my mind.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
That french race has a purse of 820,000 Euro? How do we not send over more contenders for it? Surely it would be perfect for a good staying chaser who appreciates decent ground
That french race has a purse of 820,000 Euro? How do we not send over more contenders for it? Surely it would be perfect for a good staying chaser who appreciates decent ground
The evidence would tend to suggest it is due to most of our trainers being myopic eejits.
I think it will be interesting, although he is far from a certain runner. Turning the race into a conditions race would make the next few highest rated runners worth considering, but the fact they could include horses like Madison Du B and Halcon G is a little off putting.
My intial reaction was to think about value elsewhere, and come the day I probably will look to oppose, not least because he is a horse who they say needs time between races and was trained for the Gold Cup. I appreciate Nicholls often changes his tune with his big 3 (Kauto, Denman and Minded) in terms of what they need etc, but I can help thinking after thoughts never work.
As for why British trainers don’t go to France and even when prize money levels were still high, Ireland, it amazes me. Then they will complain about the state of racing here, yet the clear answer is to be a bit more adventurous.He could also run in both – the gap between Ayr and Auteuil is about the same, if not longer, than that between the Gold Cup and Ayr.
Wheres my 16/1?
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