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The part you mentioned about laying at >10/1 or laying at the shortest possible odds in running has no logical basis whatsoever.
Either you have misinterpreted what i meant “Dice” or you struggle
with Arithmetic! If e.g “Binocular” was 10/1 at the start of a race to win
he would be approx 10/1 to lay at the start of the race also! I am wanting
to lay the horse because i think he will get beat! I either lay him for £20 at the start of the race at 10/1,so if he wins i have just lost £220, but if i lay him in running, because i know this horse travels well and he will come to challenge at some point during the race his price will shorten, so for arguments sake he has 1 flight to jump is still swingin and has only 2 horses to pass he goes 6/4 on the machine! he jumps the last passes 1 horse is a length down he goes 1/2 on the machine i press the lay button
£20 at 1/2 to get beat! its a photo finish but he just gets the nod i have just
lost £10 not the 200 quid i could have lost at the start! Can you explain what you mean now pleaseOh wow.
Firstly, if you are good enough to predict these market changes with a high degree of accuracy, then you will be very, very rich very quickly. And I would be asking for lessons
For the example you just gave – why didn’t you back the horse at 10/1 and lay when he was inevitably trading at a much shorter price in-running? That’s comfortably the most profitable strategy to exploit your knowledge.Anyway, on a cautionary note – you will need the best pictures to trade in-running because most channels are not showing pictures in real time, and you have to be able to assess in-running odds accurately (obviously). The 10/1 pre-race ceases to exist the moment the race starts, and is a price that only exists in your mind as an anchor. Something like this – http://nudges.wordpress.com/tips-for-home-sellers-how-to-price-a-house/
edit: or this might explain it more clearly
http://blog.futurelab.net/2008/07/anchor_pricing_strategies_1.htmlSo saying you’ve lost £10 instead of £200 is just plain wrong. If you had layed at 10/1, there’s a pretty strong chance the horse would never challenge or never trade as short as 1/2.
Taking as an example a race where your 10/1 shot did is just being extremely results-oriented.[/url]
The part you mentioned about laying at >10/1 or laying at the shortest possible odds in running has no logical basis whatsoever.
So saying you’ve lost £10 instead of £200 is just plain wrong
"The Dice man"
That was purely an example, but i get the strong impression you havent got a clue about laying horses! i cant make it any simpler than this! It doesn"t matter what price a horse starts the race it could be 500/1 but if its 10l clear with 100yds to run i can guarantee you it will be 99/1 on and someone will still have a bet on it! .So saying you’ve lost £10 instead of £200 is just plain wrong
"The Dice man"
That was purely an example, but i get the strong impression you havent got a clue about laying horses! i cant make it any simpler than this! It doesn"t matter what price a horse starts the race it could be 500/1 but if its 10l clear with 100yds to run i can guarantee you it will be 99/1 on and someone will still have a bet on it! .Believe it or not, I realise that. But my point is that laying it at 99/1 on is not necessarily a smart thing to do.
I have a feeling I’m fighting a losing battle here, so good luck with your strategy
I have a feeling I’m fighting a losing battle here, so good luck with your strategy
"Dice man"
There"s No battle to be lost! i respect you for having an opinon
and for not being afraid to share it!Incidentally Aragorn I was on in the Supreme at 16/1 which was the first show.
There was no press releases for 36 hours and I looked everywhere possible was on the phone on skype you name it. I was up all night and all day waiting to see if he would run or not as he was taken out the betting and the minute he was quoted online I was on he phone to my bookie.
So please don’t try and tell me anything about Binocular I could tell you when he last farted
As for you Carv that’s the last time I will answer your posts if you want to contnue your crap. Let it go mate life is too short, if not I’ll let the powers that be handle you from now on as a I am sick to death of your cheap insults.
So you weren’t on at 25/1? Come on Bruce – concentrate on the finger or you will miss all the heavenly glory!!!
For fooks sake Aragorn you and I go back along way so I will not get ito a fight with you over this stupid thread.
Go back and read the thing again……….I bacjed Binocular after he was beat in the Supreme Hurdle at 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle not for the Supreme..Clearly stated in my conversation wih Bulwark..how the hell could I back a 16/1 shot at 25/1..I goud but I am not taht good
Are you drunk?I am annd happty to say I am….love ya brother take care and happy new year
u correct the mistaeks i can’t be arsed
Welly welly sorry Mister Fister..
You have a welly nice bookmaker san
And no i’m not drunk – Just feeling like a little tete a tete, comprend pas?
Geezus!!.I was going to do a bit of editting but I think I’ll just look at it everyday and it will remind me to stay off the piss
Go back and read the thing again……….I bacjed Binocular after he was beat in the Supreme Hurdle at 25/1 for the Champion Hurdle not for the Supreme..Clearly stated in my conversation wih Bulwark..how the hell could I back a 16/1 shot at 25/1..I goud but I am not taht good
Think there is something on the best 4yo hurdlers thread from the run up to aintree, I remember you saying you’d taken 22-1 and me getting on later at 20s.
I had a look back and it was March 29th I had previously backed him at 25/1 right after the Supreme….we were taking on another thread the Sunday after 16th CH 2009….I only had 15,000 ew.
Now before anyone starts thinking geez that’s X amount… that’s baht not pounds and the exchange rate was much higher then:lol:
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