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Whether you did your rolexes
SHOUTING AT THE BACK OF THE FIELD
or just watched for the mostly brown beauty of it,
with your teeth sunk in your John Smiths,
death of the stat reared its ugly
head all over the course
and into the elbow.
Answers are sought.My baby in a red cap nightmare
has been remedied by a venetia blind
chunky black face frame
so
I am now safely able to carry out
this post-mortem in protected mode.cause of death…
– two energy sapping false starts (the curse of the threes)
– a head wind strong enought to knock your teeth out ( Dunwoody)
– that old conker selective watering
or enforced interval training, but….
thankfully no repeat of Bindaree’s year
where the first six fences area was sprayed
relegiously late on the friday eve.
by the gumshoe grouchos.
Who held the torch back then ?
Was it Bill or was it Spill?300 million pound of business
"a drop more over there"– an old style first circuit pace (forty ginger sticks on forty gingery plates)
– something smelled about the first ten in the betting
none really fitted the pattern
but of course you all knew thatcause of death on certificate – accidental
( No criticism at all of Mr Tulloch this year.
I said my piece back in two grand and two
and I am not necessarily advocating
a watering inspectorate.
But its a hugely baked cake to get wet
Bermuda beckons for the bookies
Equine bones dry out as brittle
as a Sarkozy meet.I have picked enough.
I too, am bemused. There has been more than one person on this Forum who has stated that Mon Mome wasn’t a stat or a trend horse. I clearly think he was, but if others don’t, I am not going to bother to argue with you.
Gingertipster clearly debunked the weight issue a few weeks ago, and it was also likely that the 136-144 rating band might be broken this year, what with the class of the race changing in recent years.
You still need to have a horse that has won over 25+ furlongs.
You still need a horse that is bred to stay – though of course there will be arguments as to how this is measured.
You still need to give preference to 9yos and 10yos.
You also seem to need a horse that has run a couple of times before Christmas, to indicate that the horse has had an uninterrupted preparation, and is fully-conditioned, as well as fit.
There are probably a couple of other trends as well. I have come across a couple of people on this Forum mentioning the need for a recent run.Selective watering, selective headwinds and lizards.
The lizards have had a hard time of it of late and these were the three last big races until those pesky tax returns were sent. I hear Her Majesty’s Customs aren’t too tolerate of the late pays……..
Did anyone else notice the wind machine positioned on the grassy knoll overlooking the run-in. THEY put a horse over the rails when testing the beast at Newcastle prior to the main event.
A 100/1 winner in the national, followed by a 66/1 winner whose rivals wandered, hung and found nothing, finished off with another double double carpet poke who seemed to be getting sucked home by an industrial strength Dyson on the stands side while his rivals, split by the width of the track, flailed ineffectively.
Ah the glorious uncertainties of the racing game in the credit crunch era!
Mon Mome was rated joint twelfth on 171? (? = rating questionable) by Timeform, based on his win at Cheltenham in December which was comfortably the highest rating of his career. My Will was top-rated on 179, 3 clear of the second-top Rambling Minster.
Incidentally I make it 25 chase starts for Mon Mome which is goodly amount of racing for a 9yo staying chaser, 14 of which were win or place. Which emphasises his toughness if nothing else
The point is that Mon Mome had a delayed, rushed, start to the 2007-08 season, and then had hard races in quick succession. You had to write off that season, and realise that he’d do a lot better this season. (See my contribution to the Paul Nicholls, why can’t he take crtiticism? thread.)
I think the winner was a 25/1-33/1 winer in disguise. Wat too many peple backed the horse early doors for him to start at 100/1.
100/1 is for complete rags not a horse who beat one of the AP favs in a decent field a few months back.
This one slipped trough the net and that’s the only reason he messed up the stats IMO Amazing price!!!
Have to agree with the last post. You’ve only got to look at the newspaper betting forecast – think he was 33s in the Post, was only 16s in one national and 25s or thereabouts in the other lists.
I know these forecasts aren’t the greatest but it adds weight to the argument that Mon Mome was overpriced. I still didn’t back it mind!I think we have to accept that the National is a race that will continue to throw up strange results from time to time, given the unique test it presents. This year the false starts and the number of fancied horses that fell surely contributed to the result. To me it was a "Red Marauder" year- just file it under F for freak and move on- I will still be taking a (slightly amended) trends-based approach next year.
Scoll back through the threads here and you’ll find myself and DJ championing Mon Mome’s cause in the Welsh National before he won at Cheltenham- he never rose a gallop there and wouldn’t have been in my top 20 for Saturday, don’t know about David!I was sitting late last night
crouched
drinking a pint of vitamin C
(they tell us the world has to change)
in an old stained vest
or
a white slumdog sequined neglige
depending on who you think I am
staring at a blank screen
wondering where on earth to take this thread.I could take it to the moon
past the Nunthorpe galaxy
past the flat Lake constellation
of young three year old wannabee stars
or bend over
and bury it filed under
suspicious black hole.What greeted the winner
was incredulity and extreme disbelief
behind him was one horse heart attacking
and two forced into the twenty second century para military
oxygen gear.I may return to mon homme
but will worryingly quote McCoy" He was tired throughout the whole race "
and it got me wondering if the poor
might slept R UK well
on his ten million feathered cushion
and if the night vision cameras
recorded his fort knox expensive snores
as he nightmared on the curse of the threesRambo weighted down with stat money
looked unhappy in the crowd
in contrast to the red satchel faces
whose pickers started to stretch out
long before the elbow
and Bermuda hoteliers’ eyes popped at the winnerThe vet said
the ground conditions were moregluey
than previously thought
and this must be inserted in the post-mortem
under the word stat
and the chimpanzee typed figure of 435600-1Looks like the wind machine is in action at Ponty this afternoon, taking out the each-way bankers.
. . . he messed up the stats . . .
I am still bemused. What stats has he messed up?
No one on this Forum took the French-bred statistic seriously. There are so many high-class French-breds running over here that it was bound to get blown out of the water sooner or later.
Anyway, this particular "French-bred" had a tail-male line descending from Northern Dancer. Kendal Cavalier mentioned in the Long-term thoughts thread that this race over the years will end up being dominated by that clan.
edit: Correction. KC wrote Sadler’s Wells, not Northern Dancer. I just seem to have stretched the envelope a bit.
Stat stat stat rat a tat stat t t t t t
Gerald you have the peristance of Clyde Barrow
but slightly less notoriety hitting your hundred
than the barrow gang who terrorised
america during the great depression.
Clyde was 5’7" an inch shorter than Hitler
but by gum he could mongoose a snake
and wouldn’t leave a bank alone.
I have to put you and your gun toteing
out of your miseryYes Mon Homme applied rivetingly well to the stats
in fact better than most in, number of runs, rating, days
since last race, weight, 19k race shall I go one.He had a couple of baduns too.
He last won in December and not
in Jan feb march or april
and you have to go back to 1990.
Previous runners in the big race generally
chew up their chances unless they have fallen
Moreover he fared abysmally in the betting market
that is a fact stat
and quite the biggest you know.
Not for the purists admittedly
but you ask any plum on the rails.you can northern dance over the state
and scream and shout that he was
throttle down overbaked in his preparations
for the national accident last year
– blanche wont love you for that thoughbut it all still begs the big big question
HOW THE HELL DID HE EVADE THE LAW ?
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