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Well done yesterday mate & good luck for today.
I wonder wether there would be much difference between your ‘eight dutcher’ and a straight lay of the fav? I think the potential outlay would be a few coppers more for the same profit, but you have to remember that you would be covering all 7 of the opponents to the fav. and not just the most likely 4.
As I type, Serengeti Sky can be layed at 1.77 so your £ 58.25 would give a potential outlay of £44.85.
So far either the fav has done the business or 1 of your 4 have won, sooner or later however you suspect that one of the ‘rags’ is going to come in and that will be a sickener – to get the fav beat and still lose your money.
Just a thought – good luck again for today Andy.
(Edited by snowman at 2:21 pm on April 6, 2004)<br>
(Edited by snowman at 2:23 pm on April 6, 2004)
Nice to hear you were on Padman. But i would add a word of caution. A few losers could quickly make a serious dent in the profits to date.
Snowman, i think you make a very valid point.  In hindsight it would make more sense to lay the fav in some instances, particularly when its odds on like today.
I`m sure there will be instances where we get the fav beaten and a rag does us. I`ll just have to take that on the chin until i can come up with a plan B. ÂÂÂ
Profit to date £153.95
(Edited by andydawes at 5:03 pm on April 6, 2004)
Andy,
Many thanks for the Calculator link. My modus operandi is to often back more than one in a race, but i have tended to "weight" my stakes according to degree of confidence and odds but Ill try out the calculator in future.
Ollie<br>PS I’ve tried out the calculator looks as if it will be useful-thanks again
(Edited by Ollie at 6:08 pm on April 6, 2004)
Well done Andy mate! I think laying the fav may be an option when the 7 opponents are perceived to all hold similar chances and it’s therefore tricky to decide which 4 to back.
But for now enjoy your success :biggrin:
Once again only the 1 eight runner race. Warwick 3.30
Hasayis £27.39 @ 2.65/1
Cesare £15.62 @ 5.4/1
Purple Rain £12.50 @ 7/1
Prince Valentine £10 @ 9/1
<br>Total outlay £65.51. Potential profit £34.49
Well another winner Andy but the potential outlay to possible profit was as high as it’s been since you started. There may come a point where you feel the reward isn’t sufficient to play.
But, as before, for now enjoy the success. :biggrin:
Another winner yesterday takes profit to date to £188.44.
Muss 2.40
Bold Marc  £24.39 @ 3.1/1
Forfeiter  £12.82  @ 6.8/1
Rightprice Premier  £12.19 @ 7.2/1
Steal the Thunder  £6.45  @  14.5/1
Total outlay £55.85 Potential profit £44.15
(Edited by andydawes at 12:57 pm on April 8, 2004)
Going along nicely Andy. Missed yesterday and todays though:angry: Will leave it alone over the week-end as Bank Holiday meetings are not good for me.
<br>Paul
For the second day running we managed to find the first 3 home for a profit of £44.15
To date +£232.59
Snowman, i`ve been mulling over your comments regarding outlay to potential profit and agree to some extent that the £70ish to win £30ish bets would soon blow a whole in the profit should a result go against us.
However, we are backing half the field and are weighting our selection towards the head of the market, therefore highly unlikely to get many Evens the four coupled.
To try and preserve the bank when the inevitable losers come along i`ll restrict bets to somewhere around the 4/6 coupled mark.
Many thanks for your input in this experiment, constructive views are always welcome.
Have a good Easter.
<br>
Thanks Andy, hope you have a good one too. You’ve hit a nice little patch with the system – long may it continue.
Happy Easter to all TRF members and their families but especially the sanity challenged bunch that (like me) walk the corridors of Systems Workshop!
(Edited by snowman at 6:36 pm on April 9, 2004)
One of the key elements to this system is trying to get short priced favourites beaten. To do this there has to be sufficient strength in depth in the opposition to warrant a bet against the fav.
Only 1 eight runner race today which basically looks to be a match between Soviet Song and Monturani.
Soviet Song comes out top on all rating and i`m not going to oppose it.
No bet today.
Muss 2.40
Tiviski £28.57 @ 2.5/1
Next Time £14.7 @ 5.8/1
Procrastinate £12.19 @ 7.2/1
Monsieur Mirasol £7.14 @ 13/1
Total outlay £62.6 Potential profit £37.40
Unlucky really because Tiviski ended up being the Fav to oppose, but I know in the past you have benefited from this change of favs scenario.
This shows why it is so difficult to use past results as a systyem checking service, at least where you are talking about prices anyway, because inevitably prices at the off are different to those during the morning leading up to racing.
Unable to post yesterday due to family commitments.
Sunday was a losing day.
To date +£169.99
Todays bet – Newmarket 2.20
Dario Gee Gee £21.27 @ 3.7/1
Next Time Around £20 @ 4/1
Campion £6.25 @ 15/1
King After £5.55 @ 17/1
Total outlay £53.07 Potential profit £46.93
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