Topic: Darts bets | The Racing Forum

This topic has 59 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 10 months ago by Dartguru.

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February 23, 2011 at 13:01 #17613
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Although I’ve only been posting on here for a week or two, I’ve been reading for a while – I just didn’t feel qualified to contribute.
I’ve been playing around with my own system for predicting winners and have had a few good days recently, so thought I’d bite the bullet and post my selections on here.
My spreadsheet predicts a winner for every race, from that I take the top five rated HC and non-HC horses. I’m still playing around with whether E/W or win is more productive, but I’ll still stick my head above the parapet, even though some of the odds today seem a bit scary.
The information is straightforward enough:- horse, track, time, rating, racetype/conditions, stake.
I’ve been using discretedata’s idea of pro rata bets, so the stake totals up to £25 for each set of five.
If I can work out how to present this in a better format, I’ll try and do that next time.
Handicaps
———
Chjimes Lingfield 02:20 4182 Hc/St £5.34
Rileyev Ludlow 03:20 3150 HcCh/G/S £4.03
Chrysander Ludlow 03:50 3432 HcHu/G/S £4.39
Riflessione Kempton 05:35 4792 Hc/St £6.12
Clear Praise Kempton 08:05 4007 Hc/St £5.12
Non-HC
——
Fearless Falcon Fairyhouse 02:05 1038 JuvHu/H £2.68
Jubail Doncaster 03:10 1067 JuvHu/G/S £2.75
Dream of Fortune Lingfield 03:30 2482 SelSt/St £6.40
Wanchai Whisper Lingfield 04:30 1827 ClSt/St £4.71
Hinton Admiral Kempton 06:35 3276 ClSt/St £8.45
February 23, 2011 at 13:50 #341853
Matron
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Good luck, for today Dartguru.
It is always nice to see new ideas.
Regards
February 23, 2011 at 13:53 #341854
billion
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- Total Posts 4375
Dartguru
You have done it now and we shall all be watching.
I think I can speak for all of us here when I wish you well.
Sadly the old chestnut of win vs each way has been raised – again!
Rock & Hard place comes to mind or damned if you do or damned if you don’t, perhaps the results will determin the answer for you but as long as you are happy and in your comfort zone, does it really matter?
I was chatting to another "old fella’" earlier on this week who happend to mention he bet ew and when I questioned him on the subject he replied "The main target I have is not to lose any money, I hate leaving my hard earned behind and from there the rest takes care of itself".
Now if that kind of thinking suits you who can argue it is wrong.
I guess there will be somebody

Good luck and don’t forget, we shall be watching.
Billy's Outback Shack
February 24, 2011 at 07:17 #341982
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Not the greatest start.
As I said yesterday, I can’t decide if E/W or WIn is the way to go, so I’ll keep a running count for both
Handicaps
———
Chjimes Lingfield 02:20 4182 Hc/St £5.34 WON [3/1] return £21.38 (e/w WON £15.36)
Rileyev Ludlow 03:20 3150 HcCh/G/S £4.03 LOST (e/w PLACED [11/4] £3.12)
Chrysander Ludlow 03:50 3432 HcHu/G/S £4.39 LOST
Riflessione Kempton 05:35 4792 Hc/St £6.12 LOST
Clear Praise Kempton 08:05 4007 Hc/St £5.12 LOST
WIN running total = -£3.62
E/W running total = -£6.52
Non-HC
——
Fearless Falcon Fairyhouse 02:05 1038 JuvHu/H £2.68 LOST
Jubail Doncaster 03:10 1067 JuvHu/G/S £2.75 LOST
Dream of Fortune Lingfield 03:30 2482 SelSt/St £6.40 LOST
Wanchai Whisper Lingfield 04:30 1827 ClSt/St £4.71 LOST
Hinton Admiral Kempton 06:35 3276 ClSt/St £8.45 LOST
WIN running total = -£25.00
E/W running total = -£25.00
February 24, 2011 at 12:23 #342010
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Revised 13:30 GMT.
Today’s predictions are straight from the box, I don’t know the prices of these horses.
When I get a bit more time, I want to look at how it rates the previous performances of the horse, and also how well or badly it predicted the previous days races. Obviously there can be reasons why certain horses fail to win other than bad predictions, I’m more interested in why winners weren’t predicted that maybe could have been. I’m also still a bit suspicious that the algorithm favours horses for which I have multiple previous form regardless of how good or bad it was.
Also, as I get more results to go by, I’ll try and use previous form a bit more intelligently. I have 81 engaged horses today for which I have no previous form and only 15 of them are first-timers, so the information is still rather lacking.
Handicaps
———
WIN running total = -£3.62
E/W running total = -£6.52
Shifting Gold Southwell 03:15 2729 Hc/St £4.45
Ace of Spies Southwell 04:20 3274 Hc/St £5.34
Elusive Warrior Southwell 04:50 3045 Hc/St £4.97
Kheley Kempton 06:40 2904 Hc/St £4.74
Hip Hip Hooray Kempton 07:40 3376 Hc/St £5.51
Non-HC
——
WIN running total = -£25.00
E/W running total = -£25.00
Pineapple Pete Southwell 02:10 1125 MdAuctSt/St £5.36
Bishopsfurze Thurles 03:30 1136 NvHu/S/H £5.41
Local Diktator Southwell 03:45 1291 ClSt/St £6.15
Lastkingofscotland Kempton 07:10 826 ClSt/St £3.93
Fox Hunt Kempton 08:10 873 ConSt/St £4.16
February 25, 2011 at 07:33 #342125
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Handicaps
———
WIN running total = -£3.62
E/W running total = -£6.52
Shifting Gold Southwell 03:15 2729 Hc/St £4.45
Ace of Spies Southwell 04:20 3274 Hc/St £5.34
Elusive Warrior Southwell 04:50 3045 Hc/St £4.97
Kheley Kempton 06:40 2904 Hc/St £4.74
Hip Hip Hooray Kempton 07:40 3376 Hc/St £5.51
NO WINNERS – OUCH
Aces of Spies returned £6.41 from £2.67 e/w @ 7/1
New WIN running total = -£28.62
New E/W running total = -£25.11
Non-HC
——
WIN running total = -£25.00
E/W running total = -£25.00
Pineapple Pete Southwell 02:10 1125 MdAuctSt/St £5.36
Bishopsfurze Thurles 03:30 1136 NvHu/S/H £5.41
Local Diktator Southwell 03:45 1291 ClSt/St £6.15
Lastkingofscotland Kempton 07:10 826 ClSt/St £3.93
Fox Hunt Kempton 08:10 873 ConSt/St £4.16
NO WINNERS – OUCH
Local Diktator returned £5.38 from £3.07 e/w @ 3/1
Fox Hunt returned £2.46 from £2.08 e/w @ 8/11
New WIN running total = -£50.00
New E/W running total = -£42.17
February 25, 2011 at 12:22 #342144
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Okay, last attempt for the week.
Handicaps
———
WIN running total = -£28.62
E/W running total = -£25.11
Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 3182 HcCh/S £4.86
Buona Sarah Lingfield 04:15 3295 FillHc/St £5.04
Goodbye Cash Lingfield 05:15 3282 FillHc/St £5.02
Thoughtsofstardom Wolverhampton 05:55 3306 Hc/St £5.05
Loyalty Wolverhampton 07:25 3292 Hc/St £5.03
Non-HC
——
WIN running total = -£50.00
E/W running total = -£42.17
Pepite Rose Warwick 02:40 1313 JuvHu/H £4.77
Popcorn Navan 02:45 1424 MdHu/H £5.18
Kid Cassidy Sandown 02:50 1273 NvHu/S £4.63
Pepe Simo Sandown 03:25 1538 NvCh/S £5.59
Malice Or Mischief Lingfield 03:40 1327 ClSt/St £4.83
Just for the record, here’s the one that didn’t make the top five (I have a bit more success with these yesterday, typically):-
Handicaps
———
Ally Pally Navan 01:40 874 MdHu/H
Julie Prince Navan 02:15 1009 MdHu/H
Ede’sajolygoodfelo Lingfield 02:30 957 MdAuctSt/St
Basford Bob Warwick 03:15 1018 NvHu/H
Vics Canvas Navan 03:20 1198 MdHu/H
Tafika Warwick 04:25 1074 NvCh/H
Wily Fox Lingfield 04:45 1040 MdSt/St
Young Victoria Warwick 04:55 987 NHF/H
Sunnydale High Navan 05:00 1098 NHF/H
Ballytober Sandown 05:05 1150 NHF/S
School For Scandal Wolverhampton 06:55 1239 MdSt/St
Gearbox Wolverhampton 07:55 1191 ClSt/St
Non-Handicaps
————-
Shalambar Sandown 01:45 2955 ConHcHu/S
Loyal Royal Lingfield 02:00 3177 Hc/St
Dormouse Warwick 02:10 2785 H&HHcHu/H
Indian Violet Lingfield 03:05 2951 Hc/St
Incentivise Warwick 03:50 3178 HcCh/H
Givemeabuzz Navan 03:55 2802 NvHcHu/H
Jordan Sandown 04:00 3074 HcHu/S
Odonimee Navan 04:30 2956 HcHu/H
Antonius Caesar Sandown 04:35 3120 HcCh/S
Best Known Secret Wolverhampton 05:25 2528 ApHc/St
Petomic Wolverhampton 06:25 2919 Hc/St
Black Baccara Wolverhampton 08:25 3083 Hc/St
February 26, 2011 at 12:49 #342308
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Yesterday’s HC
————–
WIN
Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 £4.86 [7/1] 1^8 £38.91
Buona Sarah Lingfield £5.04 [3/1] 8^9 £-
Goodbye Cash Lingfield £5.02 [14/1] 7^8 £-
Thoughtsofstardom Wolverhampton 05:55 £5.05 [100/30F] 5^10 £-
Loyalty Wolverhampton 07:25 £5.03 [3/1] 1^8 £20.13
+£34.03
E/W
Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 £2.43 [7/1] 1^8 £25.29
Buona Sarah Lingfield 04:15 £2.52 [3/1] 8^9 £-
Goodbye Cash Lingfield 05:15 £2.51 [14/1] 7^8 £-
Thoughtsofstardom Wolverhampton 05:55 £2.53 [100/30F] 5^10 £-
Loyalty Wolverhampton 07:25 £2.52 [3/1] 1^8 £14.09
+£14.38
New WIN running total = +£5.43
New E/W running total = -£10.73
Yesterday’s non-HC
——————
WIN
Pepite Rose Warwick 02:40 £4.77 [85/40] 1^7 £14.92
Popcorn Navan 02:45 £5.18 [100/30] 2^25 £-
Kid Cassidy Sandown 02:50 £4.63 [8/11F] 2^6 £-
Pepe Simo Sandown 03:25 £5.59 [5/4F] 3^3 £-
Malice Or Mischief Lingfield 03:40 £4.83 [4/7F] 1^4 £7.58
-£2.50
E/W
Pepite Rose Warwick 02:40 £2.39 [85/40] 1^7 £11.12
Popcorn Navan 02:45 £2.59 [100/30] 2^25 £4.32
Kid Cassidy Sandown 02:50 £2.31 [8/11F] 2^6 £2.74
Pepe Simo Sandown 03:25 £2.80 [5/4F] 3^3 £-
Malice Or Mischief Lingfield 03:40 £2.41 [4/7F] 1^4 £7.58
+£0.75
New WIN running total = -£52.50
New E/W running total = -£41.32
February 26, 2011 at 12:52 #342309
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
and I had enough time to run through today, so …
Today’s HC
———-
WIN running total = +£5.43
E/W running total = -£10.73
WIN
Rio Royale Lingfield 02:10 3745 Hc/St £5.26
Quinz Kempton 03:00 3692 HcCh/G/S £5.19
Belon Gale Newcastle 03:15 3329 HcCh/H £4.68
Forget It Kempton 04:45 3301 HcCh/G/S £4.64
Blue Moon Lingfield 04:55 3729 Hc/St £5.24
E/W
Rio Royale Lingfield 02:10 3745 Hc/St £2.63
Quinz Kempton 03:00 3692 HcCh/G/S £2.59
Belon Gale Newcastle 03:15 3329 HcCh/H £2.34
Forget It Kempton 04:45 3301 HcCh/G/S £2.32
Blue Moon Lingfield 04:55 3729 Hc/St £2.62
Today’s Non-HC
————–
WIN running total = -£52.50
E/W running total = -£41.32
WIN
Kumbeshwar Kempton 01:55 1287 JuvHu/G/S £4.30
Captain Chris Kempton 02:25 1289 NvCh/G/S £4.31
Anne of Kiev Lingfield 03:10 1684 St/St £5.63
Sire De Grugy Kempton 03:35 1565 NvHu/G/S £5.23
Baylini Lingfield 04:20 1655 ConSt/St £5.53
E/W
Kumbeshwar Kempton 01:55 1287 JuvHu/G/S £2.15
Captain Chris Kempton 02:25 1289 NvCh/G/S £2.15
Anne of Kiev Lingfield 03:10 1684 St/St £2.81
Sire De Grugy Kempton 03:35 1565 NvHu/G/S £2.62
Baylini Lingfield 04:20 1655 ConSt/St £2.77
February 27, 2011 at 20:56 #342543
Hatter
Member
- Total Posts 129
Hi Darty
Are you sure you are using the right formula for working out e/w returns ?
February 28, 2011 at 10:37 #342598
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
I think so.
e.g
Russian Flag Sandown 02:20 £2.43 [7/1] 1^8 £25.29
Wins £17.01 + £2.43 for the win
Wins £3.40 + £2.43 for the place
£20.41 + £4.86 = £25.27
There’s a small rounding error because it’s not exactly £2.43 e/w but 3182/(3182+3295+3282+3306+3292) x 12.50
which is £2.43168
Can you give me an example of where I might be wrong other than like that?
I’ll try and sort out the rounding errors when I get a chance.
February 28, 2011 at 10:48 #342600
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Saturday’s update:
Handicaps
———
Rio Royale Lingfield 02:10 Rat:3745 [15/2] 2^11 StakeW: £5.26 Stake e/w: 2x £2.63 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £6.58
Quinz Kempton 03:00 Rat:3692 [8/1] 1^16 StakeW: £5.19 Stake e/w: 2x £2.59 Win Return: £46.68 E/W Return: £31.12
Belon Gale Newcastle 03:15 Rat:3329 [6/1] PU^12 StakeW: £4.68 Stake e/w: 2x £2.34 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Forget It Kempton 04:45 Rat:3301 [6/1] 3^11 StakeW: £4.64 Stake e/w: 2x £2.32 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £5.10
Blue Moon Lingfield 04:55 Rat:3729 [11/2] 5^12 StakeW: £5.24 Stake e/w: 2x £2.62 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total £46.68 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total £42.80 for a £25.00 stake
New Win running total: £27.11
New E/W running total: £7.07
Non-Handicaps
————-
Kumbeshwar Kempton 01:55 Rat:1287 [4/1] 3^9 StakeW: £4.30 Stake e/w: 2x £2.15 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £3.87
Captain Chris Kempton 02:25 Rat:1289 [2/5F] 1^3 StakeW: £4.31 Stake e/w: 2x £2.15 Win Return: £6.03 E/W Return: £6.03
Anne of Kiev Lingfield 03:10 Rat:1684 [12/1] 2^12 StakeW: £5.63 Stake e/w: 2x £2.81 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £9.57
Sire De Grugy Kempton 03:35 Rat:1565 [11/4] 1^7 StakeW: £5.23 Stake e/w: 2x £2.62 Win Return: £19.61 E/W Return: £14.22
Baylini Lingfield 04:20 Rat:1655 [5/1] 6^10 StakeW: £5.53 Stake e/w: 2x £2.77 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total £25.65 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total £33.69 for a £25.00 stake
New Win running total: -£51.85
New E/W running total: -£32.63
February 28, 2011 at 11:32 #342605
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Today’s offerings
Handicaps
———
Win running total: £27.11
E/W running total: £7.07
Desert Strike Wolverhampton 02:30 Rat:2584 Stake: £5.28
Ice Image Catterick 03:10 Rat:2024 Stake: £4.13
Black Coffee Wolverhampton 04:00 Rat:2295 Stake: £4.69
Join Up Wolverhampton 04:30 Rat:2537 Stake: £5.18
Straversjoy Wolverhampton 06:00 Rat:2806 Stake: £5.73
(remember the total stake is £25 or £12.50 e/w)
Non-Handicaps
————-
Win running total: -£51.85
E/W running total: -£32.63
Asturienne Plumpton 02:50 Rat:1194 Stake: £4.73
We’ll Deal Again Wolverhampton 03:00 Rat:1148 Stake: £4.55
Dubai Hills Wolverhampton 03:30 Rat:1761 Stake: £6.98
Moonlight Blaze Catterick 03:40 Rat:1101 Stake: £4.36
Black Pond Wolverhampton 05:00 Rat:1106 Stake: £4.38
(remember the total stake is £25 or £12.50 e/w)
March 1, 2011 at 08:31 #342735
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Yesterday’s results
Handicaps
=========
Desert Strike Stake: £5.28 [15/2] 3^12 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £7.58
Ice Image Stake: £4.13 [15/2] 3^7 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Black Coffee Stake: £4.69 [9/4] 1^6 Win Return: £15.23 E/W Return: £11.27
Join Up Stake: £5.18 [13/2] 8^11 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Straversjoy Stake: £5.73 [16/1] 5^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £15.23 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £18.86 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = £17.34
New E/W running total = £0.93
Non-Handicaps
=============
Asturienne Stake: £4.73 [2/1] 1^5 Win Return: £14.19 E/W Return: £10.64
We’ll Deal Again Stake: £4.55 [EvensF] 2^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: £2.84
Dubai Hills Stake: £6.98 [5/4F] 3^4 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Moonlight Blaze Stake: £4.36 [100/1] 6^16 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Black Pond Stake: £4.38 [10/11J] 3^6 Win Return: LOST E/W Return: LOST
Win Total: £14.19 for a £25.00 stake
E/W Total: £13.49 for a £25.00 stake
New WIN running total = -£62.66
New E/W running total = -£44.14
March 1, 2011 at 09:27 #342741
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
Today’s selections
Handicaps
=========
WIN running total = £17.34
E/W running total = £0.93
Rosewood Lad Lingfield 03:10 Rat:3147 Stake: £5.33
Jump Up Ffos Las 03:55 Rat:2850 Stake: £4.83
Patman Du Charmil Ffos Las 04:30 Rat:3060 Stake: £5.19
Persian Gates Leicester 05:15 Rat:2852 Stake: £4.83
Very Well Red Lingfield 05:25 Rat:2845 Stake: £4.82
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)
Non-Handicaps
=============
WIN running total = -£62.66
E/W running total = -£44.14
Timesawastin Ffos Las 02:20 Rat:1033 Stake: £4.37
A Little Bit Dusty Lingfield 02:40 Rat:1396 Stake: £5.91
Holoko Heights Ffos Las 03:20 Rat:1286 Stake: £5.44
Bosambo Lingfield 04:20 Rat:1098 Stake: £4.65
Sertao Ffos Las 05:35 Rat:1093 Stake: £4.63
(remember the total stake is WIN £25 or E/W £12.50 x2)
March 1, 2011 at 14:31 #342795
Hatter
Member
- Total Posts 129
No worries Dart
You have now started showing the stake which wasn’t there before.
I can now understand where you coming from.
Cheers
Good luck
March 1, 2011 at 14:38 #342796
Dartguru
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- Total Posts 139
I think I might need it.
When I was testing this, it was coming out really well on non handicap races, now it’s slightly biased the other way.
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