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Any ideas?
I think on the ground that Zidane is possibly over priced at 20-1 for an e/w.
Kingsgaite Native and Marchand D’Or obviously have amazing chances depending on just how much cut there is, but both are shorter than I’d like for a sprint this big.
Already backed Les Arcs and would be hopeful he can regain his best form.
The bookies look to have the race priced up well though.
Backed Fat boy a while ago at a big price, unfortunately it’s still a big price
wish I got on Marchand D’or when it was in double figures but it’s two short for me now, going for US Ranger, it’s run on will at the end of it’s last two runs and O’Brien is a master of getting a horse ready for a particular target, hopefully this is the one
I think 8’s is a very fair price about US Ranger. His only chance of winning one of these top sprints is by staying in touch racing within himself and finishing off strongly and with the combination of a easy ground and a stiff finish tomorrows race should afford him his best opportunity. It will only be his third proper sprint as well and may well be the one that has been targeted all along.
Agree with your reasoning Colin- have backed the O’Brien beast tonight at 8/1. Hard to fathom how a horse with genuine Group 1 form is so close in the betting to Utmost Respect, who is going up many grades. The history of Golden Jubilee winners trying to follow up is poor and the French horse has never done it on his travels yet, though conditions will suit.
Just because US Ranger is the same price as Utmost Respect doesn’t make US Ranger overpriced. Utmost Respect seems pried upon what the ground looked ike it might be at declaration time if it had rained for the 48 hrs since. It hasn’t, and he’s surely going to find the ground a bit too lively. I can see him drifting back to 18/20/1 or so on betfair tomorrow. I wish anyone backing US Ranger good luck with that project, I think he’s overhyped and ungenuine. The Ascot run was so typical of him, running on late and looking better than the result. It may click with him one day but I’m happy to be against his like in the long term. Those at the head of the market look pretty solid, but I can’t resist 25/1 quotes Benbaun. He showed last year he’s a genuine Group 1 performer, and though he’s yet to show his best this year, he has got closer to it with every run this year.
I don’t know about him being ungenuine but I thought they might try blinkers for this race with US Ranger – Stravinsky and Mozart wore them in winning in as far as I can remember.
Just been having a good look at the race tomorrow, so thought i would post my thoughts.
Marchand D’Or was unlucky last time out as he didn’t get a run but seemed to be staying on well. I think he will want it with more cut in the ground though and from reading the Racing Post a minute ago, it seems that they think the ground is drying up at Newmarket.
If more rain comes overnight then it will be in his favour i think.
I think US Ranger may need a step up in trip and go on to 6+ furlongs.
The 2 that look interesting to me are War Artist and Sir Gerry, War Artist wasn’t that far off Kingsgate Native in the Golden Jubilee Stakes, and at 8/1 looks a good EW bet. He will appreciate the ground drying up too, and if no more rain comes overnight, then i think he will have a good chance tomorrow.
If there was 1 at a biggish price that i think could get close, it would be Astronomer Royal, Aidan O’Brien has his string in fine form at the moment, and the horse finished 7th in the Golden Jubilee Stakes, and will want better ground than he had on that day, and therefore with good ground tomorrow, may stand a better chance. At 25/1 it again seems quite a big price, for a horse that i think could run a big race.
I think Marchant D’Or will figure in the finish, but dont think he will win.
War Artist or Sir Gerry to get up tomorrow, weather forecast dependant.
Just because US Ranger is the same price as Utmost Respect doesn’t make US Ranger overpriced. Utmost Respect seems pried upon what the ground looked ike it might be at declaration time if it had rained for the 48 hrs since. It hasn’t, and he’s surely going to find the ground a bit too lively. I can see him drifting back to 18/20/1 or so on betfair tomorrow. I wish anyone backing US Ranger good luck with that project, I think he’s overhyped and ungenuine. The Ascot run was so typical of him, running on late and looking better than the result. It may click with him one day but I’m happy to be against his like in the long term. Those at the head of the market look pretty solid, but I can’t resist 25/1 quotes Benbaun. He showed last year he’s a genuine Group 1 performer, and though he’s yet to show his best this year, he has got closer to it with every run this year.
My reading of him is that he dislikes fast ground DJ and doesn’t let himself down on it.
If you throw out his runs on good to firm his record is 1111143 with the 4th in the Group 1 Prix de la Foret and the 3rd on his first run of the year on desperate ground at the Curragh. I reckon he’s been trained to peak tomorrow and is sure to be involved on ground with no jar.The rain (possibly heavy) I believe was predicted not to come until during racing tomorrow.
The July Cup may be run on good going or soft going. Am going to wait until late to bet. However, my view at the moment (could change) is:
Benbaun does look excellant value if the rains stay away. Not convinced he is as good on a soft surface. The Abbeye was far firmer than the official.
US Ranger is interesting if it is on the soft side of good, if his temperament holds. A stiff 6f may pay to his strengths. Realised he’d have a better chance on a soft surface but had not realised before Carvills stats that he had such a good record on it.
With J Fanshawe now seemingly in better form now, Zidane is interesting too.
Utmost Respect would only come in to it if soft / heavy.
Marchand D’or and Kingsgate Native have the best chance but whether they are value or not?
So sorry, you all have got there before me. Nothing original.
Do you want me to thank you Carvills, if I do end up backing US Ranger, or would that be aftertiming.
Mark
Value Is EverythingHello,
I find it bizarre that a discussion can develop about form regarding what is effectively a Sprint.
Why sprints are Group 1’s are beyond me..
There no form line in sprints, let alone bless them with Group1 and the money that goes with them..
I found it disheartening to read within the Racing Post that PRIME DEFENDER has no chance, so this will be my choice..
regards,
doyley
Nine of the probable fifteen starters competed in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot.
The first five home, including Kingsgate Native, War Artist, Sir Gerry and US Ranger, were all drawn low. Marchand D’Or and Astronomer Royal, sixth and seventh respectively, both ran well from double figure draws.
Marchand D’Or will have his preferred ground for the first time in three starts in this country. Despite encountering unfavourable firm ground on every occasion thus far, the french raider has finished fourth, second and sixth, respectively. Although there appears to be no draw bias, many of the fancied horses are drawn high and Freddie Head’s charge is in stall nine. His Prix du Gros-Chene form (King’s Stand winner Equiano second and GJ third Sir Gerry well held in third) looks rock solid.
Kingsgate Native is a wondeful horse, However, if there’s one fancied horse in the field who will not appreciate the expected downpour, it will be this fellow. He acted on Good-Soft in last years Prix de l’Abbaye, but that was over five furlongs and this is a lot harder.
War Artist has improved with every run since coming over from South Africa. Another who may not appreciate the cut, but he certainly won’t be far away and will be hard to keep out of the frame.
My long shot fancy is the O’Brien second string Astronomer Royal. He didn’t look as though he enjoyed the soft ground in the Prix Jean Prat last year, but if there is a deluge then his stamina could prove vital. A former French Guineas winner and St James’ Palace third.
I fancy Marchand D’Or to take the July Cup back to France at the main expense of War Artist and Astronomer Royal.
Those at the head of the market look pretty solid, but I can’t resist 25/1 quotes Benbaun. He showed last year he’s a genuine Group 1 performer, and though he’s yet to show his best this year, he has got closer to it with every run this year.
Benbaun caught my eye as well, DJ. Seems to be improving with every run this year as you said. If the forecast rain were to arrive, however, I think a stiff 6 furlongs in soft ground (Wallace has always maintained he’s a fast-ground horse) might stretch his stamina.
More questions than answers to take the race serious as a betting medium!!
I couldn`t have US RANGER at any price,he had his ground/Trip in a group three on his return and couldn`t take advantage,owners made a big mistake taking him away from France where the races where run to bolster his confidence!,if i could get MARCHAND DÒRS last race out of my head i would say he was a “good thing“, however,irrelevent of the draw that day the horse was outpaced at a crucial stage of the race and it certainly left me baffled,having seen him in France i expected a lot better!BENBAUN is another who disappointed me lto,the Curragh race should have been a “tap in“ especially as he shows his best form at that venue,WAR ARTIST and KINGSGATE NATIVE have done little wrong,however,the first mentioned looks like a fast ground horse to my eye and the latter will need the breaks if he`s going to be held up,if the going rides “dead“ i would rather have something that could race up with the pace and the form horses don`t really fit that category,in short i would say MARCHAND DOR is the one to beat but at that price i will pass!!
Id say if the ground stays anywhere near soft, Sir Gerry will reverse couple of recent outcomes v KN and MD. How well has that French Gruop 2 form held up btw.
I could not decipher a winner from these sprints – they’re all racing against each other without much change other than going and tempo.
With the change in going here from Royal Ascot (most likely) I expect to see a different result entirely from the Golden Jubilee Stakes.
If you are showing any interest in US Ranger, then Astronomer Royal surely is the standout wager. I’m also choosing him E-W.
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