May 15, 2019 at 16:58 #1438000
A great looking renewal this, really excited to see how this pans out and there has to be a very good chance the winner will then go on to Epsom glory the way the trials have been run this year, with possibly the exception being Sir Dragonet’s performance.
The bookies are taking no chances with Too Darn Hot’s price, he obviously could be the superstar in the field, but John Gosden said today, he would’ve liked another 10 days with him, which is enough to put me off at the odds. I have had a derby bet on him though, as we all know whats going to happen to his Derby odds should he win.
Japan had a little setback and missed a week, so again, just a nagging doubt that he’s not quite ready for this, plus his form is solid, but nothing spectacular. However it would surprise no-one should he win this and his derby odds would also tumble. Thankfully I’m on at 25s from last year already.
Surfman and Telecaster have a lot to do to take this IMO, it’s possible of course with 3yr olds at this stage of the season, but happy to take them on at the odds against 3 potentially hot colts.
Almania is interesting for Sir M Stoute, out of Australia, but not been seen since August, Nayef Road’s last run was good and he might outrun his odds, but he probably won’t be good enough for this.
The 2 for me, are Line of Duty, who I am now heavily invested in anti post for the Derby. I simply don’t understand why a group 1 winner, beautifully bred for the derby, by the winning trainer from last year is 15/2? Even Charlie Applebys form looks to be back in better shape, with 4 winners from 7 runs since the Guineas, after Space Blues went in today at York. Surely a cracking EW at least?
The other is Turgenev who seems to be a bit forgotten after his runs this year, but we can forgive his run at Newbury due to the soft ground probably not being in his favour and he did look like the winner of the Epsom Derby trial before fading in the last half furlong. His breeding doesn’t suggest that he cannot stay 10F, so maybe he just hit the front a bit early that day. Even his 7th in the Doncaster trophy stakes last year isn’t looking too bad as its thrown up a lot of winners since. I’m hoping he can run into a place at 50/1.
Line of Duty 15/2 EW
Turgenev 50/1 EWMay 16, 2019 at 10:28 #1438204
Japan very weak in the market this morningMay 16, 2019 at 10:50 #1438208
- Total Posts 2121
I hope Too Darn Hot does turn out to be as exciting as he looks, and that he stays sound after today. Questionable splint bones and firm ground aren’t a great mix.May 16, 2019 at 11:37 #1438218
- Total Posts 2593
Appleby’s strike rate is at 42% and this might be LODs Derby – seems excellent each way value considering those things and the fitness issues of his two main rivals.May 16, 2019 at 11:54 #1438224
- Total Posts 2201
Line of duty and japan are e/w bets to nothing imo
TDH “might” win today but he aint staying 1m4 in june, crazy price today given godolphin and ballydoyles recent formMay 16, 2019 at 12:02 #1438226
Mark, why would it be LOD’s derby? What don’t you like about him for the actual Derby?May 16, 2019 at 12:31 #1438230
- Total Posts 1726
I presume Frenchy he is probably questioning whether LOD is good enough.
Strictly on form, he has to improve. Syrtis, who he beat 1.25Ls has been 2nd again twice in two grade 3s beaten further.
Pablo Escobarr who he beat 1/2 L has since won his maiden but been beaten in a handicap (Decent one alright!) and went onto be beaten readily by AVD.
The form of his Breeders Cup win wouldn’t set the world alight either.
Obviously that’s my take, and i would say he’s open to improvement. I had him down as a potential for the Derby too but on the basis
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 16, 2019 at 12:31 #1438232
- Total Posts 2593
Just a Godolphin thing, although Appleby will do his best to change their fortunes in these biggest Grade 1s
It’s mainly Suroor that puzzles meMay 16, 2019 at 12:40 #1438235
Charlie Appleby won the Derby last year Mark and he’s back in form now recently. I never go anywhere near Suroor’s horses though I agree!May 16, 2019 at 13:21 #1438245
- Total Posts 5659
At the top of his game I think Too Darn Hot would take this comfortably. Problem is
that there are question marks, and at evens and slight odds on I’m not inclined to
to side with him. On the other hand, I don’t think think that Line Of Duty could
have done much more in the very decent races he’s taken part in. I actually think he
could improve further and I’ve taken the 15/2 for this and also the 16/1 for
him in the Derby.May 16, 2019 at 13:48 #1438249
- Total Posts 8285
Ive done Too Darn Hot at 11/10 – win
and hope he does…
Nayef Road 33/1 is my each way long shot.He looked a picture when I saw him on Guineas day at Newmarket taking the last in great style obviously he has mountains to climb but Johnston stable in good form
£2 Combi Reverse Forecast
Too Darn Hot
Line Of Duty
Good luck .. JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 16, 2019 at 15:45 #1438263
Wow what a disastrous run by Line of Duty. I’m usually against people saying “oh this derby looks rubbish this year” as there are always people who say it every year, BUT this year….May 16, 2019 at 15:47 #1438265
Amazingly, Bet365 have let me cash out all my derby bets for only half stake lost. Second time I’ve had generous cash outs with Bet365. Thanks guys! Will be very surprised Line of Duty even turns up after that.
What a shocking start to the season for Charlie Appleby, please improve! We don’t need a one season wonder!May 17, 2019 at 00:02 #1438757
- Total Posts 4311
Having seen all the hype on ITV about this being the best Dante for many a year I was massively disappointed in the race!!
TDH is far too gassy to ever stay middle distances.
Telecaster pulled like a train and still won!!
That doesn’t say much for the rest of them.
Can’t possibly see anything from this race winning the Derby or even placing to be honest.May 17, 2019 at 00:06 #1438758
- Total Posts 20468
Glad they are going back to a mile with Too Darn Hot.
I’m sure he’ll still be capable of a decent rating over 10f and thought he ran as well as expected considering the lay off and jumping into a 10f race 1st time up. No chance him staying the Derby trip imo which many on here said before.Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.