July 6, 2020 at 22:37 #1493099
I’m being blunt, but come on, The maiden Al Madhar won last year is one of the hottest maidens run all year and you’ve not even taken notice of it.
Trends are pointless for races like this surely? It’s a different race (usually a Derby trial) at a completely different time in the season.
Al Madhar 10/1 is the value here.July 6, 2020 at 23:34 #1493114
As i said earlier in the thread it was between Al Madhar + Encipher for me here. I’ve marginally sided with Al Madhar, hard to be sure, as there wasn’t much between them last time, off similar layoffs. In general though, Hannon’s would take a run or two and while Gosden’s can i would say he usually has them straighter (this backed up with Encipher going off fav).
I won’t bother running through them all again too much, but Highest Ground could be absolutely anything as we all know. He was on many minds for the Derby before the season got underway late. However, he’s even money here after beating Waldkonig a horse that i agree with FF91 over. He has somewhat flattered to deceive. Looked a monster + hasn’t lived up to it. I suppose he was beaten by Jockey Club winner + Volkan Star won next time out too, but still. I wasn’t actually blown away with Highest Ground that day like many were. York will certainly suit him though as he looks to like to gallop. At evens now, i don’t think there’s any value in him, even if the race cuts up like i suspect, he doesn’t warrant being much shorter than he is now.
Given i still think we might be under 8 runners here a good ew bet seems the way to go. I am not a big big trends man, but given the two i’d shortlisted haven’t been ruled out by your trends Frenchy i am going to play Al Madhar ew.
I suppose from a stats perspective, something i like to consider more, Hannon’s York record is terrible with 34 runners and only 1 winner from 5 seasons with his 3yos.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 7, 2020 at 01:12 #1493121FinalFurlong91Participant
- Total Posts 1792
For me waldkonig is a miler, he didn’t stay on either of his runs this season to my eye
He may be related to waldgeist but hes by kingman and showed loads of speed on debut
Highest ground may well take a huge step forward from that run but at 11/10 he has to be opposedJuly 7, 2020 at 08:43 #1493135
Kev, do you have a tipping service I can follow, as you clearly have an edge on once raced maiden winners from a year ago, that is going to net me a fortune this season!
Now we’ve started it properly, the Al Madhar debate is a good one. You do realise that maiden was a year ago right? He’s been a talked about horse since that, but I just can’t see how you can say a maiden from a year ago is stand out Dante form?!
That said, I think the 10/1 is value actually in this field yes, I’d agree, might look nice value if the race cuts up a little bit today as well, so worth a saver I’d say.
Would you not be concerned about why he’s only been seen out once in a year since winning a hot maiden? Suggests some issue at home right? Slow to come to hand, not quite getting fit etc etc?
He’s taking his time with him that’s for sure, he was once being talked about as a Guineas horse, but he’s missed everything, including Royal Ascot. The average RPR of the Dante winner is 116 over the last 10 years, that’s a huge step up from what he’s done so far. Even the form of the maiden, you look at it, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all put up their best runs on their 4th start. Why are you so convinced that Al Madhar can win a Grp2 Dante on his 3rd start on what he’s done so far just based off that maiden run?
If it’s purely a value thing I can see it perhaps in this field, but to suggest his form is almost rock solid, which is how you are coming across is just crazy.
Regarding trends, this season we need to be careful with them, but as I always say, trends are only useful if they get interpreted in the right way. The two that I put up, I would expect to hold in this, I don’t think if they get broken it will be because of the rearrangements. They say 1) A horse is usually improving and in form and 2) It’s a hot race the Dante and they need to be at a certain level going into it.
I think the criticism of Waldkonig is a little harsh, it’s not the horses’ fault he gets labelled as a hype horse. When you ignore that and look at his form so far, there’s not much wrong with it. Mishriff is now a French Derby winner and Volkan Star won a Listed next time out. Then he gets beaten by Highest Ground, who is another a little hyped and he does have it to prove now on a big stage, but the vibes are strong and I do think this track will really suit him as you say Jack.
The last point on Al Madhar you make Jack is also an important one for me, that’s a terrible track record for R Hannon.
I’d rather put my faith into a horse that could be very special who was about 16/1 for the Derby at one point.July 7, 2020 at 10:58 #1493139
I had taken a bit of time writing a bit about Al Madhar but didn’t realise i hadn’t logged in, clicked post+ lost it! So this is a brief summary of it.
I touched on it in my guineas summary of him- Hannon said he thought Al Madhar would only race once more if at all as a 2yo. In his Unibet blog before his 3yo win, he said it was agreed with Maktoum to let him grow instead of racing further at 2.
Obviously he’s missed some big races now as a 3yo, but i’m hoping this is one of Hannon’s outside the box moments. He’s taken his time with the horse, and probably realised how the Dante is going to be a winnable race with less “Derby” level horses this year given it’s after the big event!
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 7, 2020 at 11:04 #1493140
When you look at form, you take into account EVERYTHING. The point is that the maiden he won has been franked time and time again, so either Al Madhar was a readied debut winner or he’s a good horse.
The fact he was off since then came back and won a novice with a penalty, pulling clear with a well thought of Gosden beast, tells you that maiden wasn’t a fluke and he is a good horse. As Jack says, Hannon rarely has them ready first time, so to win nicely indicates she should be ready to step up into a race like this.
I’d see his lack of racing as a positive, unexposed so still lots of room for improvement. I think it was just small niggles and weakness so Hannon has given him time. Missing the big meetings with horses isn’t always a bad thing, you can blow a horses head off if they go to a big meeting when they’re not ready (See Michael Stoute year in year out and the opposite with Charlie Appleby).
His form is far from ‘rock solid’ as he’s only had two runs and is very unexposed, but with the improvement i expect on Thursday, he should be shorter than 10s.
I don’t understand the sentence ‘If it’s a value thing’ – It’s ALWAYS a value thing. It’s the only way to make a long-term profit punting.July 7, 2020 at 11:56 #1493147
6 runners now as we thought- it’s cut up! Nice position for anyone backing e/w.
1 Al Madhar Dane O’Neill
2 Cormorant James Doyle
3 Encipher Frankie Dettori
4 Highest Ground Oisin Murphy
5 Juan Elcano Kevin Stott
6 Thunderous Franny Norton
It will be interesting to see how they price it up.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 7, 2020 at 12:08 #1493148IstabraqParticipant
July 7, 2020 at 13:46 #1493153
- Total Posts 222
Haha, thanks for the lesson on form Kev I didn’t realise I need to look at all the form! Thank goodness you posted!
You’ve made a wild assumption that I’ve not looked at Al Madhar’s 2-year-old form. In any case you’re completely guessing based off that maiden run. Horses improve at 2 at completely different rates, you can’t just draw form lines with 2-year-olds like that. Not for me anyway, especially not one from 12 months ago.
You’ve completely ignored the fact the horses he beat in that maiden improved with racing. He’s now stepping into a Dante on just his third run. His win this season tells me nothing. Encipher has run 3 times now and done pretty much nothing of any note in the context of this race. The rest of the horses were useless. The 3rd got beat 8L next time out. Maybe you should take in some of your own advice!
Yeah, it looked a decent maiden, but it was 12 months ago and you are trusting wholeheartedly that he’s developed massively from that run and that Richard Hannon whose potentially struggled to get this horse in the right shape and whose never won the Dante and has an awful track record has a hidden gem in his stable.
If that’s value to you against a proven Group 2 distance winner, a horse that finished only 4L away from a 2000 Guineas winner and a horse that has a fairly decent form line through the French Derby Winner, and none of those are even the favourite, whose trained by a 6 times Dante winning trainer, then good luck to you!
The, it’s always about the value shout I always laugh at as well. Yes it’s a value game, but first and foremost it’s all about picking winners, not picking value. Out of curiosity, what price would Highest Ground & Al Madhar need to be at for you to back Highest Ground? And how would you price the race as it is now?July 7, 2020 at 13:54 #1493154
That’s a complete guess, it’s more likely he’s throwing him in here to see what he’s got. But RH’s had a few horses that he’s said ‘Could be anything’ recently I’m sure!
Look, if he goes and romps home, then well done to you chaps! Comes down to how much we trust in RH I suppose.July 7, 2020 at 14:32 #1493158
Is this in relation to my post? Realise your first initial post had Kev named!?
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 7, 2020 at 15:35 #1493164
Second one was Jack yep. Sometimes I copy and paste the text in bold and it just disappears, sorry for the confusion. Not sure this is the most solid of platforms to be fair
It was a comment to your “he probably looked at the dante as more winnable”.
You could very well be right, but that’s a big guess really no?July 7, 2020 at 16:06 #1493167
Yes Frenchy, hence why one was 10/1 and the other EVS – One has more substantial form on show.
My assumption is that Al Madhar is open to a tonne of improvement. He will more than likely get beat in this, of course, but he should have been 13/2 roughly for me. Highest Ground is fair at Evens, but it’s not value to me.
This bet is far from a bullish one, it was simply a value each way bet at the prices.
It’s brilliant that you argue the form in the book is better than unexposed form when you chose a horse in the Derby simply because the stable jockey got on him. And he ironically got beat by a massively unexposed horse
The, it’s always about the value shout I always laugh at as well. Yes it’s a value game, but first and foremost it’s all about picking winners, not picking value. Out of curiosity, what price would Highest Ground & Al Madhar need to be at for you to back Highest Ground? And how would you price the race as it is now?
Not it’s not. ROI can only be achieved by picking horses which are a higher price than they should be. In the long run you win, end of. If it was about picking winners you’d punt the favourite in every race.July 7, 2020 at 16:35 #1493169
It is quite guessy, but then that’s why i put “i hope” at the start lol.
Hannon said he wouldnt run him many times if at all again after the maiden, it’s in black + white.
Clearly, covid hasn’t helped trainer’s with horses that have very little experience- much similar to Highest Ground?
They had a choice, throw him in a classic off one run one or run in a novice, gain experience + target elsewhere. If you are doing the latter, you’d probably be thinking surely the Dante will be more winnable as it’s obvious any trainer with horses more experienced will have ran in a Derby the week before?
It might be guessy but there’s surely some logic there?
Look, if he goes and romps home, then well done to you chaps! Comes down to how much we trust in RH I suppose.
Either way we have an e/w priced horse with 3 places in a race paying out 2 places, so you’d be hopeful of something. Thoough in saying that most of them haven’t shown their hands yet so not too hopeful.
On the RH part, why wouldn’t we trust him? He’s shown quite a lot that he’s not the same type of trainer his father is, and much more of a patience trainer? I put this opinion across to you for King Of Change too….
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!July 7, 2020 at 17:08 #1493171
Kev for the record on the Derby, that was not the case. I was concerned about what it would have told me had Ryan Moore not picked Mogul, as it would have been blatantly obvious he was nowhere near fit. I’d already picked Mogul. I’ve written a very complex piece on why I chose Mogul, so it took a little more study than purely picking him because Ryan did.
Anyway, I’m not sure I understand the need for your tone on here to be fair, it seems a bit pointless, maybe I’ll put it down to lockdown boredom!
10/1 EW in now a 6 runner field for an unbeaten horse, can’t complain at that value really.
Not it’s not. ROI can only be achieved by picking horses which are a higher price than they should be. In the long run you win, end of. If it was about picking winners you’d punt the favourite in every race.
That’s such a flawed statement it’s unreal.
There is no point picking a horse that’s higher in price than it should be if it doesn’t win.
ROI can only be achieved by picking winners regardless of price is a much truer statement, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t all be looking for value first and foremost, because we obviously should but I can’t be bothered to carry on with that as we’ll both disagree clearly.
Anyway back to the race, Jack I like RH, but I’ve lost count the amount of times he says something overly positive about his horses recently. Didn’t he say one of his was better than Toronado and Canford Cliffs the other day?! Haha I think he’s brilliant! Got a lot of time for positive people.
I’d be happy here if AL Madhar wins well to be honest, I like the guy and he deserves a good one!
But in summary 10/1 EW first 3 definitely value, can’t argue with that. Not sure he is any value now in the field myself and not sure I can trust RH at the moment in big races.
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