Dangerous Dave’s Lays and Plays

[The Ante-Post King]

Saturday –

Ascot 3.40 Prompter

Sh*t! you"ve put the mockers on my banker!

[cormack15]

Sunday –

Bath 3.35 Warm Memories

Have a lovely Sunday!

[cormack15]

Monday’s selection –

Salisbury 3.45 King’s Bayonet unp 4/1

[cormack15]

Tuesday

Leicester 5.10 Toucan Tango unp 40/1

[cormack15]

Wednesday

Lingfield 5.45 Pedantic

Kempton 6.40 Alflouzy AND Fennica unp 15/2 and 3rd 14/1

[cormack15]

Thursday

Nottingham 15:10 Hero From Zero

Nottingham 16:10 Roman Republic

Nottingham 16:10 Psychic Ability

Brighton 17:00 Chateau Zara unp 7/2

[cormack15]

Friday –

Newmarket 5.15 Mass Rally unp 18/1

[cormack15]

Saturday –

Catterick 4.00 Candy’s Girl

Catterick 4.35 Nawaashi AND Gainsborough’s Best

Catterick 5.45 The Hermitage unp 16/1

[cormack15]

Monday

Pontefract 14:40 Tahaamah

Windsor 16:00 The Which Doctor 2nd 6/1

[cormack15]

Wednesday –

Kempton 8.50 Gay Mirage unp 2/1f

[cormack15]

Nothing Friday –

Going to call a halt to this after Saturday for the season.

I’ll post full results and analysis next week and I’ll be back next spring, fit and raring to go!

[cormack15]

Final selection of the year –

Newbury 4.15 Carlton Home

Well, the 4.15 was won by Carlton

House

but hopefully you’ll forgive me slip.

Nice to bow out with a winner for the season – I’ll be back next March, see you then.

[cormack15]

Here’s the final facts and figs for this year (all to level 1 pt win stakes)

April -32.46 pts
May -19.97 pts
June -14.98 pts
July +3.42 pts
August +34.27 pts
September +31.79 pts
October -33.21 pts

Seasonal total -32.15 pts (-7.67%)

Looking deeper at the figs it seemed it was the longer priced runners that were giving us the headaches – here’s how the figures would have looked

if

we’d only backed those runners starting in single digits (e.e <10/1)

April -16.47 pts
May +5.03 pts
June +4.025 pts
July +1.42 pts
August +26.27 pts
September +4.79 pts
October -19.21 pts

Seasonal total +5.85 pts (+2.03%)

Slightly better performance but still quite variable. Taking it a stage further I looked at those starting <5/1.

April -4.46 pts
May +13.03 pts
June +4.02 pts
July +4.41 pts
August +16.27 pts
September -7.21 pts
October -6.21 pts

Seasonal total +19.85 pts (+10.45%)

So it seems that I’d be better concentrating on those runners at or near the head of the market as these are where my selection criteria seems to be most effective.

I’ll fine tune over the long, cold, hard winter up here in the wilds of Scotland (while watching the occasional spot of twig-hopping for light entertainment).

[Cav]

Nice one David. Do you have a list of the bets and I’ll check them against BFSP?

[Author]

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