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I did my own odds line in the early 2000s, Class 3 and better races using a combination of RPR and Topspeed. I compared my odds with Betfair and backed anything that ran to its best figure last time if odds were longer than my estimate. Worked very well when there were ill informed layers in BF but becane more of a grind when the ‘idiot money’ was all gone.
I believe its still possible to be successful but a lot of specialisation required. Concentrate on one group of races and learn as much about it as possible.
My current method doesn’t involve an odds line as I am using my own rating method which, judged by results, gives me an edge provided I trade at the best prices I can secure. Would be possible to do an odds line from my figures, but not sure I would gain anything extra.
Important point is, as Ian Davies has said, the lower class races are more difficult. There are strong selections at times but the market has them covered.
I agree the lower grades are more difficult for me too. Little prize money means connections need a winning gamble in order to make a profit which also encourages skulduggery. But the latter is imo only a small part of the challenge. More the fact one of the reasons horses are in these grades in the first place is consistency and/or temperament which – at least for those not in the know – makes predicting harder. However, I know Mike (Betlarge) once said he makes good profit on class 5 and 6, so is not impossible.
Could be more a psychological thing for most punters. After all, fact is each price wins as often as can be expected by those odds; just the same as in higher grades… Which in turn seems to suggest predicting should be just as easy as higher grades. However, is that to do with horses being backed (or not backed) in (or out) to the horse’s true chance at the off? ie On “form” there will be some that may seem good or poor prices by off time, but the market has got to know the ones likely to show their best and/or improve.
Value Is Everything“Little prize money means connections need a winning gamble in order to make a profit which also encourages skulduggery.”
100% THIS. ^
That, in a nutshell, is why punters need to have a two-tier betting approach to what is a two-tier sport.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Even with studying form and using 100% tissues I agree with Rob in that finding an edge or two helps… Sometimes finding the bet/s without need for a 100% tissue. Two things that probably helped me over the years are my own Trainers In Form ratings (1 to 10) and a particular interest in pace in the race. What the likely pace of the race will be and who it’s likely to suit.
Value Is EverythingSome punters can not see past the one / next race. Therefore something I think a lot of punters fall down on is wanting to be proved right. The “I told you so syndrome”. ie They want to say a certain horse definitely will or definitely won’t stay the trip / act on the ground etc believing it proves he/she is a good judge.
In reality (remember we are talking about before the race) it’s purely a matter of probability… and that probability needs to be allowed for in the price a punter is willing to take. Sometimes a punter might think the horse is a doubtful stayer but the market knows that too and may have over-reacted. Making it – for that particular punter – worth taking a chance at the price even though in his her opinion it probably won’t stay.
Value Is EverythingI create a tissue for every race I decide to finalise, it is paramount for me in identifying my selections.
There are different ways of creating a tissue, I have a method which involves formula in an excel spreadsheet I designed, I am happy to share this with you if you find it would be of benefit and talk you through the process of using it, just drop me a message
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