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Craven Stakes 2012

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  • #21558
    elgransenor1
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    • Total Posts 625

    Most attention will be drawn to Most Improved, who has been slashed to 4-1 for the guineas on the back of some supposedly breathtaking homework. However the hype surrounding him reminds me somewhat of the same yards Delegator a few years back (remember how bullish Meehan was about him? Is Meehan ever not bullish?)

    Most improved does look a scopey sort who could well improve massively from two to three, in which case he could well leave these for dead, but the price will reflect that possibility. I wouldn’t be surprised if he got sent off around about even money for this, which given he got beaten last time in a sub-par looking Dewhurst, doesn’t tempt me in the slightest.

    Personally I think this years Guineas is wide open and its going to be all about spotting value. The one who I really like in this is Godolphins Mighty Ambition. He seemed to show an especially likeable attitude in his maiden win at newbury and I like the way he travelled and then quickened. Unlike some in this line-up, he’ll definitely improve for the step-up to a mile.

    #401209
    threenaps
    Participant
    • Total Posts 315

    I agree that Mighty Ambition should be good at the mile at this stage. I think he’s will become a good 10f horse later. I will back him in this race.

    I also like Trumpet Major. Although only 5th in the Dewhurst the jockeys comments were that he got boxed in and then had too much to do. However it would seem that colts carrying a weight penalty haven’t won this race in the last 10 years. On the other hand there have not been too many of them entered. The trainer made a comment on the 6th April in the Racingpost that "he is in great form".

    As you say Most Improved might be too good here but how many colt that were "good here" went on to win the Guineas?

    #401333
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    Judging by the runs of Brian Meehans’ runners today Most Improved will take the world of beating tomorrow. He will have to win with some authority to justify his skinny price for the 2000 Guineas. The Hannon pair will expose any weakness in his armour but 5/4 tomorrow in group 3 company represents much better value than 4/1 in a group 1 in a fortnight.

    #401359
    Triptych
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    • Total Posts 13114

    Looks like Most Improved will take some beating tomorrow, looking at some of the videos of his races he shouldn’t have difficulty in getting the mile, although in the Dewhurst there was a point when he seemed to be going up down on the spot and Power flashed past him to steal 2nd place.
    Born to Surprise is the value in this race and I am having a very small each way punt on Rayvin Black at 40-1 who had a nice win back end of the season with a few good horses behind him. :D :wink:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #401371
    threenaps
    Participant
    • Total Posts 315

    Most Improved just been withdrawn

    #401372
    GDC
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    • Total Posts 942

    Beaufort Twelve is an alternative EW proposition here and also the 2000 Gns :D

    #401373
    Eclipse First
    Member
    • Total Posts 1569

    The 2 Hannon runners will provide a reasonable guide to how much any of the unexposed horses have improved over the winter. I fear that the race has lost much of its meaningfulness as a trial for the first classic with the defection of favourite.

    #401380
    elgransenor1
    Member
    • Total Posts 625

    yes, most improved being withdrawn is a huge blow, especially as I was intending to lay it :lol:

    the worry with born to surprise must be whether or not he’ll see out the trip. the trainer admitted as much yesterday, when he said he’d rather not see anymore rain. he’s by exceed and excel and while he was hugely impressive at doncaster, the extra furlong must be a concern. but as it isn’t looking like an exactly vintage craven maybe he’s worth the risk?

    clearly if he doesn’t get it here he won’t be getting the trip in the guineas, where they are likely to go a much quicker gallop.

    #401955
    Triptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 13114

    Born to Surprise:
    In the paddock he impressed, a huge horse reminiscent of Duke of Marmalade.
    Unsuited by the good to soft ground, lost a few lengths by rearing at the start and never really got into the race.
    Possible each way in the 2,000 Guineas at a big price if the ground drys out in time.

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #401989
    elgransenor1
    Member
    • Total Posts 625

    must be a concern about him staying though, whatever the condition of the ground.

    by exceed and excel so can see him ending up in the sprinting game.

    #402400
    Triptych
    Participant
    • Total Posts 13114

    Looks like Born to Surprise scratched from the 2,000 Guineas now, they have him entered up in the Tats Millions 3yo Cup at Newmarket on 30th June at the moment, run over 10 furlongs, so they are looking at middle distance races for him.
    He has Kings Best on the Dam side so he could be anything, just have to wait and see. Still think he is an interesting prospect and one to keep in the notebook.

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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