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This filly simply has simply outclassed this bunch today, I would still expect her to stay in the Oaks no problem.
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Luca Cumani would be crazy not to send Fantasia to Newmarket after today’s performance. She may have been a class apart from her rivals, but she’s run 1.2s quicker than Infiraad (who won the three-year-old maiden for colts later on the card) and 0.3s quicker than Ouqba in the Free Handicap. Ouqba, incidentally, carried 3lb less than Fantasia.
I’m still happy to have Serious Attitude as my main hope, but that was stunningly impressive.
Problem is Equi it’s not up to Luca and you can bet your life she will go to France. IMHO of course
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The Wood Ditton (1.50) looks an absolute nightmare, and it’s not a race I tend to do all that well in, but with no real stand-out on pedigree I may be tempted in to taking a chance on
Lord Fidelio
. He’s related to a couple of useful animals, has an interesting blend of speed and stamina and should come in to his own as they hit the dip.
Crown
(2.25) perhaps didn’t achieve all that much when finishing fifth on debut, but she only got into the race late on and would seem ideally suited to the additional stamina (as sprinting goes) Newmarket demands. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see her beaten though, and I may venture a saver on
Six Wives
. I think William Haggas introduced Danehill Destiny to make a winning debut at this meeting last year (for the same owner) and there would appear to be plenty of speed in her pedigree.
The Abernant (3.00) isn’t the sort of race I would normally consider betting in, but Michael Bell’s
Redford
has really caught my eye. A literal reading of his form would suggest that he has plenty to find with some of these, but I’m firmly of the belief that the drop in trip is what he’s been crying out for. He travels well and can quicken, so six furlongs run at a decent clip should be right up his street. It may also be a bonus that Jamie Spencer rides Zidane.
I doubt I’ll have any interest in the Craven at all, but despite reports that Delegator has been nothing short of electric in his work I’m not sure
Alharf
is completely out of it. Barry Hills is in superb form at the moment and it was hard not to be impressed by this horse’s demolition job at Haydock. He may not have beaten much, but an eight length win over six furlongs is still something to take notice of. City Style could have been considered a danger, but having run in Dubai it’s almost certain that he’ll be ‘below par’ this afternoon.
I heard an interesting point today that if it comes down to a fight they wont be pushing too hard on Delegator whereas something like Glass Harmonium and the Jeremy Noseda runner will see this as their Guineas tomorrow.
The 12/1 on Sans Frontieres is massive and I personally think this colt is going to the Derby. He was lined up to take on Kite Wood, Taameer and Four Winds at the tail end of last year and was hottly fancied for that. I can see him running a big race.
I agree on Twice Over. Really he should win this tomorrow if he produces anything near his best….BUT…..Virtual seems to be that kind of improving horse and in a time where John Gosdens horses are all hitting the top spot I’d be inclined to take a bit of the 9/2 on offer
I find it weird that Matsunosuke has a penalty because he has won a Listed race since August, and Equiano doesn’t get a penalty for winning the King’s Stand Stakes because it was before August.
4 lbs in just over a length at 5 furlongs, but I suppose it is enough to tilt the balance against me having a bet on Matsunosuke in the Abernant.
I was thinking he could catch the others cold, as they might just be using this as a prep race for the Palace House Stakes.
I’ll put £2 on anyway, but won’t risk anything more.
Edit : whoops! Have only just realised the race is over 6f and not 5f.
Sounds impressive but, as some have alluded to, it also sounds like 1m4f would be out of her reach.
You don’t win at 7F from the back first-up without being more sharper than dour.
Heck – I could take it further by suggesting she won’t stay ten furlong! I might lay her if she turns up in the Diane on a soft Chantilly track.
The entire card is broadcast tonight – no complaining.
Can’t enthuse a Stoute runner just yet. That’s my strategy and not yours!
I am far from convinced Delegator is any sort of good thing for this race today.
He had already finished 2nd then won a maiden at Newmarket in very good style before going for the Dewhurst.
While he ran well to finish 5th the race never quite panned out the way expected with both Rip Van Winkle and Ashram finishing out the frame.
He was apparantly backward in the Dewhurst, is said to have come on a lot and apparantly did a great gallop the other day.
As a result he has attracted a lot of attention for the Guineas but he was subject to a bit of a gamble in the Dewhurst and for me this horse may have limitation to what he can actually produce on the course.
Glass Harmonium is a horse I like a lot. Sir M decided against running himin the Dewhurst last season as he was very backward. He had 3 entries this week and Sir M has decided to go for the most difficult of them. You couldn’t say he was mega impressive or showed an out of the ordinary turn of foot when going for home in his maiden.
What caught my eye was the way he travelled and had everything else well off the bridle 2 furlongs from home. I think this stiffer mile at Newmarket will suit him much better than the 7 furlongs at Yarmouth as he is out of a staying mare. No doubt Sir M will fancy his chances and if he is ridden up with the pace he could have the speedsters in trouble when they hit the rising ground.
How you are meant to work out how good Frankies mount is beats me but his odds for a horse who has won huge prizes on dirt tells me he is not expected to be good enough.
The Phantom of the Opera here is Alyarf. The furthest he has run over is 6 furlongs but no one knows better than Barry Hills what it takes to win the Craven. He had three winners yesterday and his horses seem to be jumping out there skin.
I don’t fancy evens about Delegator I think he could be overrated
Glass Harmonium I fancy could run a big race but Alyarf should get the trip and might just have that little bit more toe when push comes to shove.
Alyarf EW 8/1 is my idea of the safest bet.
In the hope I could be right about Delegator a few quid RFC on Glass Harmonium and Alyarf could pay excellent odds.
I am not a huge fan of Twice Over and said wuite clearly last season he was a false fav for the Guineas and had more chance of winning a Triumph Hurdle
That said this looks a deperate affair and should I get a close to evens it will be piggbank time. The fact Cecil has had 3 short priced favs stuffed in the last few days is a slight worry but they have all run well in defeat. If he can’t beat this lot then maybe he should go hurdling
My saver bet of the day is John Gosden’s Prohibit who is 10/1 which looks excellent ew value to me. Runs well when fresh acts on the ground and his string seem in pretty good form.
my early picks for today are:
Edge Closer and Equino
Glass Harmonium
Twice Over
DialogueThe other races, unraced 3 yr olds/2 yr old maiden fillies, I have no idea about and have no intention of losing money backing anything.
I’m going there today, looking forward to it.
That was very impressive, i have just had a look at the race from yesterday, she did that very easily.
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Alyarf’s bred to be an out-and-out sprinter and didn’t shape as if he was anything but when blitzing up last time at Haydock. He’ll travel smoother than anything through this contest (if settling) and the in-running backers will be falling over themselves to get on if he’s still hard on the steel 2f out.
So I’m gonna back him pre-race to lay and recover my stake at half the odds, then will give back all my green at odds down to 1.1. He could well hit such odds before a relative plodder like Delegator picks him up in the final furlong.
I’ve had a bet in most races today for small stakes and a bit of enjoyment, but my main three plays are:
Habaayib 2.25
Edge Closer 3.00
Tazeez 4.10.Hills on fire yesterday, and i’m hoping his fine run continues.
I’ve also had a small tickle on Vhujon at Ripon.
I also noticed that Over Sixty is twice the price of Argento Luna at Cheltenham, despite whalloping her in the autumn, and then running well at the Festival. I know AL has improved since, but i’ll be back OS each way, and having a reverse forecast.
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Completely the opposite view to Fists in that I can’t see anything to touch Delegator, whereas Twice Over wouldn’t be the safe bet his price suggests he should be.
Knot In Wood showed improved form at the end of last season, and carried that over to the Cammidge Trophy, where he showed much better form than in the same race last year. Aiming a little high, but others short in the betting also have questions to answer, so Redford may be the danger, granted he runs..- Total Posts 17716
Well done on Delegator Reet I honestly though 2 fro home he was going nowhere then zoom!
Thank fook I never backed Twice Over or yesterday winnings would have gone bye bye..
I should have listened to myself with him, That thing wouldn’t win a novice hurdle at Hexam
Delegator? 2000 Guineas? could be!!!
Too drunk to care about me but glad you won a few quid mate
Does everyone know that you can watch these races back for five days afterwards on Racing Uk’s website? For free. Excellent quality as well.
Does everyone know that you can watch these races back for five days afterwards on Racing Uk’s website? For free. Excellent quality as well.
I didnt actually know that Aragorn, cheers.
Watched back the Craven, Nell Gwyn and Free Handicap. Fantasia looked to be kicking clear of beaten horses yesterday, and am happy to avoid her if she does turn up at newmarket.
Really liked how Ouqba and Delegator done it in their races. With Ouqba there is the chance that Barry had him bang on, but he still done it fairly easily and didnt look like a mile would be beyomd him, could have a decent season ahead of him.
Hard to know what exactly delegator beat today, but he did it very easily whilst looking green as grass, should win races this season and looks a deserved favorite for the guineas. Dont think I’d be temtped to take the 3-1, 7-2 etc on at the minute though.
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