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imo Rematuelle should have won the Guineas – quickened an already fast pace too soon.
…And in that respect Elmalka was flattered to win at Newmarket. But the Varian filly has had only 3 runs in her life and is much more likely to improve than Rematuelle. Porta Fortuna wasn’t far behind and she has Ascot form to her name too. But she too has had plenty of racing and her level of ability is well known. Both Elmalka’s sire Kingman and dam Nahrain won on good-firm and I see nothing in her action to suggest she won’t be equally effective on this surface. Yes, she was suited by how the race panned out. But Opera Singer will need to set a strong pace today in order to blunt her rivals superior speed. Elmalka may well get a similarly run race today as Newmarket. Rematuelle also has stall 1, which can be good for a prominent runner like her – if fast out the gate. But if just a bit slow may not get the position her form suggests she likes. I backed Rematuelle last night because she was value. She has a better chance and should be shorter than Elmalka. But the gap in the betting should not be anywhere near 2/1 versus 8/1 now.
Am convinced Opera Singer is a middle distance filly. She was extremely short in the betting this morning. AOB’s have generally been coming on a lot for their first run, but she needs to make 10 lbs improvement from the Irish Guineas run to even be up with the English 1000 principles… Her 2 year old form in all probability won’t be good enough. And that’s if the Newmarket horses don’t improve. Yes, there is a reasonable chance of her making that improvement. But the price last night was all about hype and the Coolmore bandwagon. She has now got to a backable price.
One I liked who was available @ 55 last night is Skellet. 6 1/2 lengths off the winner in the Irish 1000. But was held up in a race that favoured those ridden prominently – so better than the distances suggest… And probably needed her first run of the season. Needs to improve on her best run (as a 2 year old) about as much as Opera Singer needs to improve on her Irish Guineas form (albeit OS has better 2 year old form). So 55 well worth taking… Trouble is she’s now only 23.
Value Is EverythingCan get 7/2 about opera singer currently, dont like the drift atall, thought shed be 2/1 at absolute best, her 2yo group 1 win, form isnt that great, but her comeback run was satisfactory but i feel between her and elmalka there both overpriced (elmalka had the dreaded superboost hence the drift one would assume) the only two i can see wanting further than the mile are the two ive said, possibly the french guineas horse but the ground worries me for her, ballydoyle surely going to make this a proper test which imo will negate atleast ramatuelle & porta fortuna
Will reluctantly back OS @7/2 and elmalka e/w @8/1
There won’t be anything in the field that wants quicker ground than Rouhiya. They came here for the ground. It says ‘soft’ in the form, but it was quick ground for the Pouliches. Fortunately, they had torrential rain straight after that race. The ground description for her is completely misleading.
I agree about the ground for Rouhiya, Stilvi. Just a matter of the form. Distances back to the other runners: Head, neck, short neck, 1 1/4, nose, short head, head. Are ALL the first 9 home really of that ability? The slowish pace means it is a difficult race to put a rating on. I know the English 1000 was quite a tight finish too, but the stong pace makes their performances easier to get a handle on. Rouhiya could be flattered by winning a race none of those held up out the back got in to. She might be a good filly, might not.
Value Is EverythingNot sure about that stilvi theres a few in here who want out and out firm, not sure many want a proper test on firm though (assuming thats what ballydoyle do) id have rouhiya in that bunch aswell, shes a nice price though wouldnt be opposed to having a bit on her, breeding doesnt scream out a preference for firm though?
You are right, she might not be good enough.
When you have a winner at a big price, it’s quite hard not to be a little biased, but in this case I think there are good reasons to believe she is a good bit better than the bare form, maybe three lengths better. From that there’s every chance she could progress again. She had a bad draw and had to use up petrol to gain a position. She then became unbalanced as Buick came across, and from that point she didn’t have any chance to win by a bigger margin. She ran right through the line. Granted luck in running, I will be disappointed if she is out the three.
Stilvi
I don’t have any problem with Moumtain Breeze (Albany). I’ve watched her races again and to win her Maiden at Class 2 over 5f then to progress again to win over 6f again at Cl.2 I think she’s done all that has been asked of her.I love the way she quickens and goes on which is what I’m hoping to see this afternoon.
Some really good race analysis from yourself and Ginger and just shows what a wide open race this is.
I think the French jockey committed to soon on Ramatuelle at Newmarket hence we have Murphy on board now. I think he’ll bring her home today.
I couldn’t back Opera Singer or even Elmaka it’s a tough call.Wish you well with Rouhiya, she has it all to do like See The Fire, but if either wins what a great feeling that is to have got it right.
Best race of the Meeting
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...If Coolmore think Opera Singer is going to run really well, would they allow her to go off 7/2?
Value Is EverythingI expect someone had 1000000000 on the French horse with star bet or whatever its called
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
WD Chivers, she was a class act today.
Opera Singer looked like she’ll probably come on for the run again. 1m on good/good to soft or 1m2f on faster going will probably be her optimum.
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