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Winter should be hard to beat; it’s unlikely that any of the also-rans from Newmarket (Talaayeb, Daban, Fair Eva) will reverse form with her and the French representatives likewise don’t look good enough.
The best price 3/1 on offer at the moment could be very tempting indeed. I however, in an attempt at an ahead-of-the-game move, have nibbled at the 20/1 on offer about La Coronel who represents last year’s Queen Anne winning trainer Mark Casse. Unlucky in last year’s Breeders Cup, the American filly bounced back from knee surgery to record two consecutive Grade 3 events impressively and connections have already stated their intent to bring her over.
Plans will probably change though and she won’t step one hoof on a plane knowing my recent run of form but you have to dream… right?
La Coronel is here, doubt she’ll be winning though, Charles. Personally don’t think she’s good enough (unless she’s been pumped up)
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Can’t really see Winter getting beaten. 8/15 is a good price imo. Not that I ever make an odds-on shot a main bet. Dabyah is second fav, but scoped dirty in May and had to miss the French Guineas. Gosden filly will also be taken on by Hydrangea; so unlikely to get a soft lead. Both Coolmore second and third strings (Roly Poly) have very little chance of overturning the Irish Guineas form with Winter. Both seem exposed.Do like Tomyris as a filly. Seems to find plenty and fair value @ 22/1, but will need a strong pace to bring stamina in to play judged on the York run. One I like at the prices is the French Guineas winner Precieuse. Admittedly, it’s far from certain she’ll act on this surface, but if doing so could at least shake up the favourite. At 12/1 is worth taking the risk.
I was refused an each way bet, so instead it’s just a win bet with a saver on the fav.
Value Is EverythingWont be having a bet on the race now. I was hopeful Dabyah was going to be a serious challenger to the favourite in the Guineas, but it was not meant to be. Like Ginge has mentioned she was pulled from the French Guineas, and no news since from connections, and here we are.
I remember from last year the trainer had reservations she was a miler ( as a 2 YO ). Possibly Ascot gives her the best chance to see it out. I hope she wins but i have lost my chance on getting a good price on her.
Winter is a chunk better than Roly Poly on all known form and looks like an above-average 1000 Guineas winner.
Rarely is there a giant chasm between English and French Guineas winners, though. If Caravaggio wins, Winter could conceivably SP around 2/5. Precieuse is already 12/1, which feels a bit ridiculous. Personally, I think she will handle the ground no problem – she’s by Tamayuz and a sister to Baccarat after all.
Rain Goddess gave the French Guineas a mini boost the other day so, like Ginge, I’ll try my luck for a bit of bad each-way action but probably end up having a tiny bit win-only and a bit on the exchange each-way.
Dabyah doesn’t stay, Hydrangea hasn’t trained-on and Le Coronel isn’t good enough. Hope this French filly can edge Roly Poly out of 2nd at least.
5/2 without Winter also a cracking bet imo
…Roly Poly 6/1 without Winter worth a go too!I really want Winter to win this because I think she’s fab, but won’t be betting at these tiny odds. I don’t see how the French filly’s price is as high as it is; she deserves more consideration.
Interesting the second and third strings are being backed against Winter.
Value Is EverythingIt’s hard to see Winter getting beaten here, but I’m in agreement with a couple on here
that PRECIEUSE should not have been the price she was this morning, I
mised the 12s but 11/1 would be very nice if she can give the favourite a run for her
money
Roly Poly did Precieuse in. Jockey…
The Heff usually rides the spoiler.
Intelligence Cross and now Roly Poly.
Team tactics?Winter an easy, quality winner, never in danger but there’s just a bit of insurance if they can hinder one of their main rivals? That said, Preciuse won the French race by coming from the back – using her speed late. Wht was Peslier doing in front?
Value Is EverythingRoly Poly did Precieuse in. Jockey…
The Heff usually rides the spoiler.
Intelligence Cross and now Roly Poly.
Team tactics?Winter an easy, quality winner, never in danger but there’s just a bit of insurance if they can hinder one of their main rivals? That said, Preciuse won the French race by coming from the back – using her speed late. Wht was Peslier doing in front?
It is not very safe riding to smack your pony forcing the oponent to ride the rail, he knew he rammed Peslier, but did nothing.
If the horse is up to it, you can choose to use early speed instead of late speed. Maybe going for win, not 2nd. Preciuese didn’t respond right away and didn’t get the chance to show what was in the tank. 2nd would have done it for me.Best Wishes
SilkThe Heff usually rides the spoiler.
Intelligence Cross and now Roly Poly.
Team tactics?Did he try again in the Vase, what a shame Wisconsin didn’t want to know.
Value Is EverythingSuddenly Winsconsin was unrideable, very funny. My money was on Count O, so I hoped he would choose the inside of Wisconsin (fearing Wisconsin again would run away from the rail horses). There was one better.
Anyway Winter was and is the best 3-y-o mile filly. No doubt.Best Wishes
SilkRoly Poly did Precieuse in. Jockey…
The Heff usually rides the spoiler.
Intelligence Cross and now Roly Poly.
Team tactics?Winter an easy, quality winner, never in danger but there’s just a bit of insurance if they can hinder one of their main rivals? That said, Preciuse won the French race by coming from the back – using her speed late. Wht was Peslier doing in front?
My feeling exactly Ginger, I thought she would sit in and come relatively late. The interference
at the end didn’t do her any favours, but I think by that point she probably had used up more than
was sensible. She would have been nearer without the interference, but I doubt she would have won
from there. It was a pity as I thought she had a real shout.This was the least inspiring race of the week for me. I never considered a bet at any stage.
My only reflection is that I napped Winter on her second start and she was woeful. The rest is history.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dabyah is a seven furlong horse pure and simple!!
I think the winner could be better than the boys! She only seems to do what is asked of her and would love to see her against the three year old colts but I imagine that is not gonna happen.
I think it was a fair renewal, although the tactics on the French filly were somewhat surprising.
If Churchill plays a Gleneagles and cries off sick from a few engagements then Winter looks like a ready-made sub. Lancaster Bomber keeps being flattered by getting soft leads so I doubt they would want to rely on him.
I think Roly Poly ran a great race too. She looks like a perfect type to take to America, maybe to hoover up a few weak G1s around two bends against the weak US turf horses. Without Winter in opposition and fast ground to suit, I think those races would really suit her.
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