- This topic has 44 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 7 months ago by
.
- Posts
Can’t be having zarigana in this, beyond me that shes favourite, that french form is rotten, 5 runs and hasnt broken 112, bedtime story would have won that race if she wasnt reappearing there, this is the worst favourite of the week, absolutely howling price, wouldnt go near her anywhere close to this price,
She wont even finish in the first 4Track and ground a big negative imo, jockey even more so
Cant remember the last time i was this against a horse, this will not win.
I actually have 3 against her but ill only be backing two, fully expect January/falakeyah and chantilly lace to finish comfortably infront of her.
January e/w at 6/1 is a bet to nothing, similar prep to bedtime stories, using a guineas as a piece of work, will love conditions, wont mind the track and the handicapper looks foolish only giving her 105, bar the fillies mile which she just didnt enjoy the ground and too much too soon trip wise, bar that run, shes already ran 113ish imo and if she had skipped the race and just put away for the season, she’d be half the price she is currently, can hang right, ideal.
Secondly ill be backing falakeyah, 11/4 e/w for a fairly massive bet by my standards, id have her 2/1 for this, i think stepping back will bring out more improvement, had a decent field dead on their feet 2f out, she’d have walked the french oaks, doesnt need to have a lead but will just sit behind exactly if she goes forward and they wont see which way she goes or she’ll just burn them from the front, aslong as its not a crawl, will be right there
Chantilly lace is the only reason for betting falakeyah e/w, she does worry me, that guineas run was excellent
“had a decent field dead on their feet 2f out, she’d have walked the french oaks,”
Wasn’t a decent field, the 2nd was unplaced in a Ribblesdale the 3rd was second last in the Oaks. As for ‘walked the french oaks’, perhaps but we’ll never know, and that is 10f which would’ve suited and this is 8f. Can she win this?, she might, but it’s about potential to this point.
You’re expecting Zarigana to not make first 4, you have mentioned 3 in front of her, who’s the 4th?
it was a decent field, qilin queen came out and won a listed race before not staying in the oaks, merits her 98 rating.
2nd yes unplaced, but a close 2nd, dont particularly think she stayed either, surrounded by horses rated in the high 90s
Both hammered by falakeyah fto on the bridle, shes already ran to 105+ after two starts without facing a rival,
What makes zariganas form worthy of the price mike? After 5 starts doesnt it worry you that she hasnt broken 112? Shes not exactly “progessive”? Of course she can win this and i can be wrong, but im fully expecting some less exposed types to improve past her
Whos 4th? For what its worth Mike, i think zarigana will finish out the back, she’ll barely get round, im fully expecting a candelari type performance from yesterday
Group 1, Jane Chapple-Hyam and William Buick what’s not to like. Kon Tiki for me the trainer hasn’t supplemented her for this on a whim.
The more I know the less I understand.
I did Zarigana Ante Post but the French horses haven’t been running well this week
Charles Darwin to conquer the World
“After 5 starts doesnt it worry you that she hasnt broken 112?”
Not really. 112 isn’t necessarily the ceiling of her ability. She can only beat what’s put in front of her and be rated accordingly. If she wins today she won’t go up much, if at all, as she’s already the highest rated and she could still be criticised by some next time for not having a high enough rating after 6 starts lol. There are unexposed types against her so nothing is certain. And if she boils over in the prelims your prediction of finishing out the back is a good one. Noticed there is confidence behind Zarigana in the market this morning whilst most of the others have drifted even though pricewise thinks Falakeyah will win easily.
Her manner of victory suggests shes more than likely at the ceiling of her ability, if beating shes perfect is the ceiling and something in here cant train past that, its just a poor race, imo id have her about 16/1 if DF & LV were running in this.
We’ll find out shortly anyway! Good luck with her Mike (you’ll need it
)As I said before the Gold Cup, Candelari had never run on a firmish surface and the four year old had only 5 races in his life before. Trainer had said he had had physical problems. ie Probably hated the firm ground. Zarigana has run on firmish (not officially). Times on the French Guineas day indicate it was good-firm. They beat Racing Post standard. The French filly’s family usually improve with age and improvement can be expected. imo Zarigana can also be rated a bit better than the result. Having come from much further back of all the first five home. That said, she is very short now. Now 2.66. I took 3.15 as a saver. Only a saver because we don’t know what the pace will be here either and she’s sure to be dropped out the back again. There aren’t many that might lead.
The rank outsider Duty First and Chantilly Lace have been prominent but haven’t led. I had some bets yesterday evening on Chantilly Lace and Kon Tiki. But the pace scenario came to me overnight!
Falakeyah front run to win the 10f Pretty Polly, but was so exhuberent am not surprised they’re coming back in trip. Showed plenty of speed there and if going to the front could well try to slow it down for a positional advantage on (judged on betting) by far their biggest rival, Zarigana… Obviously Falakeyah has potential to improve quite a bit, but on what she’s done so far is also short. Qilin Queen might have won the Newbury Oaks Trial, but that form is nothing special, barely listed class and was lucky / got a good ride to win. So yes Falakeyah did beat Qilin Queen easily by 3 1/2 lengths, but needs to find a good bit more here. So despite Falakeyah having the chance of a soft lead she’s not currently a bet for me.
Very often when Coolmore have two horses in a race the second string leads. Exactly didn’t front run when 4th behind Zarigana in France. But has been effective while front running before. I don’t think she’ll be “sacrificed” though. If I were Coolmore I’d want a slow pace. Exactly leading and January tracking – once in front slowing it right down… Again to reduce the short priced favourite’s chance.
Have now backed Exactly.
Value Is EverythingTough filly to battle back, looked like she wanted it more than the French filly did whos head came up in the air as she changed her lead leg.
Winner pays a compliment to Lake Victoria who spanked her 4L in the Irish 1000g
Calandagan and now Zarigana from this stable, both looked as though they were going to win but failed to go past.
Value Is EverythingDo you think Basher and the team will feel even more aggrieved regards the French 1000 Guineas now after seeing that? One thing the stewards never seem to take into account regards interference is that some horses will not pass regardless of their passage through. The french filly seemed to shirk that one there and I think even with a smooth passage she might have done the same in France. We’ll never know
Falakeyah obviously far too keen, its been said a million times already, but when there fighting like that, just let them run, there not going to win anyway and your not doing them any favours fighting, remains to be seen what she can do, i wouldnt be backing her quickly though.
Was expecting january to go past there but didnt seem to get the mile which im surprised at.
I was dead certain zarigana wouldnt win and if i was still allowed to have a betfair account id have been laying the house on that, but she did run better than i expected tbf, much better and id have been nervy turning in there
Would anything in this get near lake victoria or desert flower? No.
This will prove to be a howler of a race
Winner’s trainer is in absolutely fantastic form – Gosden-like.
Just like Sangster when he had the second and third in the 1000 G.Suspect this will be a stand out performance in her career.
Value Is EverythingNo the right decision was made in France – this ground was the quickest the French horse has raced on (and likely ever will) and it was noticeable that she changed her legs when she hit the front and her head came up, which would likely indicate she was feeling the ground rather than not being genuine………credit to the winner as she out battled her.
“its been said a million times already, but when there fighting like that, just let them run, there not going to win anyway and your not doing them any favours fighting”,
No.
Or it depends how fast they are going at the time. ie If they were going a slowish pace and Falakeyah was pulling – then Crowley could let her go a bit more, get the lead and has a chance of staying there.
Whereas if they are going a strong pace and the jockey allows her to go even faster… The filly won’t learn how to act in future. Or worse, believe it’s what the jockey actually wants in future.Value Is Everything“No the right decision was made in France – this ground was the quickest the French horse has raced on (and likely ever will) and it was noticeable that she changed her legs when she hit the front and her head came up, which would likely indicate she was feeling the ground rather than not being genuine”………
That’s possible, LD.
However, she’s been “beaten” by small margins now in the Boussac, Pouliches and now Coronation. What’s more, in all those races her jockey has been at pains to challenge very late… Even only won her reappearance by a neck too. Which all suggests to me tactics are deliberate. Connections probably know she’ll down tools if getting there too soon. More to it than just the ground. Times say the going in France was firmer than the official “good”. Although the going this week has looked nearer firm than good-firm. Many that have acted on good-firm before haven’t seem to have acted this week.Value Is Everything
)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.