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Calandagan 11-10
Odds on in most places. With Los Angeles, White Birch and Kalpana running this weekend, Aventure not running here, Jan Brueghel looking like a stayer, Rebels Romance held by the selection from last time, and the others having to improve, this looks like a good opportunity for the fav.
If Epsom turns on the soft side then I can see You Got To Me and / or Bellum Justum running poorly. You Got to Me disappointed in the Oaks on a soft surface and also when joint favourite as a juvenile. Her Irish Oaks victory and Yorkshire Oaks close second were good performances. But has quite a bit to find against the colts even at her best.
Bellum Justum came on for his reappearance to win the 4 runner Jockey Club Stakes last time out. But possibly had the race set up for him as Silken Knot probably went for home too soon. The form doesn’t look up to this level anyway. A well beaten below form 7th in last year’s Derby on a softish surface and kept to firmer conditions since. Connections will be hoping the rain stays away.
I’m a great fan of Calandagan and he has some winning form on a soft surface. However, his big improvement came when encountering firmer ground in the King Ed and International… With his subsequent imo disappointing defeat in the Champion Stakes coming on softer. So although he “acts” on soft, could be at his best on a sounder surface. One that possibly suits his fine turn of foot. That said, might not need to be at his very best to win this.
I want to be against Jan Brueghel at the prices – after his reappearance. It’s not the being below form. I expected that in a 10f race and the vast majority of Coolmore’s runners have come on for their first run. Lightly raced so also has some scope for improvement on his Leger victory. However, switch the jockeys around and imo Illinois would’ve won that day, and… Has any excuse been made about the way Jan was trying to hang right into the rail on reappearance? I hadn’t noticed it last year. Was something hurting? Has something happened since the Leger that has affected his temperament and / or is there an injury? Had a long flight to Australia for the Melbourne Cup. where controversially withdrawn by racecourse vets for being “at heightened risk of injury”.
Judged on the way Continuous was sacrificed as a pacemaker in the Tatts Gold Cup, Jan has another St Leger winner to help set a gruelling pace which should suit. Continuous hasn’t been at his best since a good 5th in the 2023 Arc. Has a good chance himself on that form; but has had enough races since that have been at a much lesser level to suggest he’s not up to it nowadays.
One that at one time was well fancied for last year’s Derby is Ancient Wisdom. Could he redeem his reputation? With his markedly round action didn’t seem to act on the track. Hasn’t really gone on since his Futurity victory as a juvenile. But if we were to get a deluge it might hinder many rivals and he hasn’t had much racing getting his toe well in since Doncaster.
The one I really like at the prices though is Giavellotto. Won the Yorkshire Cup with ease and then gave weight and a beating to Arrest – when Arrest was on one of his good days (on good-soft)… Slightly disappointing third in the Irish St Leger before an amazing run in the Group 1 Hong Kong Vase. Producing a remarkable turn of foot for a supposed “stayer” off a pace that wasn’t fast, to beat Dubai Honour 2 1/2 lengths. Would’ve been much more with a clear passage.
Value Is EverythingTrainer of Giavellotto voiced his concerns for soft ground for his horse were it to be that tomorrow. Connections have said he is a good ground horse or a fast ground horse.
Giavellotto hasn’t raced on soft or heavy but is at least as effective on good-soft, Mike. I suspect connections meant they wouldn’t want it any softer than good-soft. So as long as the heavens don’t open he should be fine.
Indeed, a cooler day may well help, as he has sweated up before.
Value Is EverythingThe only excuse for Calandagan not to get his maiden group 1 victory against this lot is the track and even that wouldn’t be enough to warrant backing him again in a similar match up at the same odds.
He was around 5/6 on the exchanges so I’ve had a bit of that.
I was just about to post Ancient Wisdom Green..surprise surprise. 🤣
I took 20/1 EW with Paddy Power last night. He will love the soft conditions and extra trip as you said and he has the class to take on the favourite.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I am happy with my Giavellotto @ average odds of 17/2.
Saved on Calandagan @ around 4/5…
And now – just in case the ground is softer than the official – a saver on Ancient Wisdom too @ 18.5.Value Is EverythingHave You Got To Me AP but only at 14/1. Added some of the 25/1 EW.
Giavelotto 6/1 WIN onlyJan Brueghel all class.
Calandagan unlucky to meet this horse on his A Game.
Writing on the wall for Ancient Wisdom drifted to 22/1 before the off. Could mean the ground has dried out a lot so more of a positive for Desert Flower later JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...It didn’t look good, did it Glad’.
Before the race I thought it was Jan that looked temperamental in his reappearance but he fought back very genuinely today.
Did Calandagan make too much ground up in a small space of time while the pace was at its fastest? I’d like to see the sectionals, but I doubt it because the time was only half a second slower than standard. So they went a good pace and the going is not (yet) any worse than the official. I suppose it is possible Calandagan is better on firmer than today. ie Although has won on soft, the improvement at Ascot and York came on not just good but a firmish surface… tbh I don’t think the horse did anything wrong in any of the three seconds before today. However, the most likely reason for his defeat today is he just didn’t want it.
Value Is Everything
Jac
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