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Didnt think DDS would come here but it seems so, barry jocked up and nicky confirming MTOY is only in there if DDS got injured.
Cant believe there starting DDS over 2m3f and ill be taking him on FTO, the race is likely to cut up a bit more MTOY, top notch and possibly irving to come out, DDS is givng weight to lil rockerfeller whos already had a run into him
Lil rockerfeller ran well in this last year and was a close second to yanworth giving him weight, if im right the forecast looks pretty decent up until
Race time and good to soft should be fine for him, he looks better on decent ground, seems to like ascot although not winning to often here hes ran some pretty good races in defeat behind some nice typesLami serge is a horse i dont get along with, ive had a few shockers thanks to him, looks as though he is wanting a fair bit further than this now and hes giving weight (6lbs) to lil rockerfeller, looks more of a starting point than a target for lami
Lil rockerfeller 7/2
Defi Du Sueil was obviously a top class juvenile, but top class juveniles still need to improve in order to make the grade against established top class horses. Expect him to do so eventually, but this is a hard enough task first time in open company, over a different trip. Hobbs is not yet in his usual form this season too. Should be favourite, but not odds-on – more like a 6/4 shot.
Year ago you would not get me backing L’Ami Surge, looked a right dog. Has thrown in the towel but hasn’t done much wrong once stepped up to 2 1/2 miles plus. It’s possible British punters don’t realise just how good L’Ami Surge is now – after winning the French Champion Hurdle in June. First time hood there, which may be important. Each way bet takes some risk out of the bet and this is a great each way race. Poor value short priced favourite with two rank outsiders in a 5 runner race.
Also taken each way on Lil Rockerfeller. People have slagged him off for not winning very often, but has been highly tried and didn’t have the form to win many. Did on reappearance and disappointed, however usually comes on a good deal for first run. Placed in the Stayers Hurdle which is his best performance. I’ve rated him on his 3/4 length second to Yanworth in this race last year trying to give the winner 4 lbs, 10 lengths clear of the rest. Gets weight from the other two principles here.
Wakea seems established as below top class, below even Grade 2 company. Can’t see him figuring unless getting a very soft lead up front.
Dicosimo won a listed Irish Hurdle by 10 lengths once; but hasn’t raced over hurdles since April 2016. Past form isn’t good enough. Greatrex is good but who improves them from Willie Mullins?
Lil Rockerfeller 7/2 each way
L’Ami Surge 100/30 each wayValue Is EverythingYou wonder why you lose accounts when you put up snidey e/ws like that GT! 2nd and 3rd favs in race with a 10/11 fav and two massive rags. Dirty dirty stuff.
I also feel like Defi is beatable though. The juvenile form isn’t looking good and, though he was the clear standout of the bunch, he does feel a little vulnerable. I think I’ll just be positive and lay him. Lil Rockerfeller and L’Ami Serge aren’t horses I have much affection for and I can’t quite bring myself to back them directly.
You wonder why you lose accounts when you put up snidey e/ws like that GT! 2nd and 3rd favs in race with a 10/11 fav and two massive rags. Dirty dirty stuff.
I also feel like Defi is beatable though. The juvenile form isn’t looking good and, though he was the clear standout of the bunch, he does feel a little vulnerable. I think I’ll just be positive and lay him. Lil Rockerfeller and L’Ami Serge aren’t horses I have much affection for and I can’t quite bring myself to back them directly.
:lol: When they restrict me why shouldn’t I shaft them/you?
Strange thing is, sometimes when betting each way they’ll allow me to win more money than win only bets. Any reason for that?
Value Is EverythingThis isn’t a betting race for me, but I would be surprised if Lil Rockerfeller or L’Ami Serge are good enough to beat Defi – and I say that as a big fan of both of them.
Bit of a chicken and egg problem I suppose – what came first: the snide e/w bets or the restriction?
Not sure about the discrepancy in win v ew offers you’ve experienced though. Maybe some fruity algorithms or misaligned limits at some firms online.
I’m making my first ever trip to Ascot tomorrow – if I’m honest it won’t be my biggest betting day. Am interested in seeing if Defi is as good as many reckon but I’ll be happiest if dear old Smad can pick up another victory.
I’m worried about the ground for Defi BUT he’s a superstar.
He will win the champion hurdle if Faugheen doesn’t turn up.
Thrown him in a multi here but didn’t lump on as the ground first time up worries me.
I think it’s good for racing if DDS was to come out here and just
destroy them on the bridle. Which I think is definitely possible.I can’t pretend I’m anything other than pig sick after that. Hard to say
if the bad mistake he made early on had any effect on the horse, but he
skelped it with his back legs and his backside nearly hit the deck. What I
did notice before that fence was Barry Geraghty doing something with the reins,
I actually thought at that time that something was wrong, I had a horrible moment
when I thought he had a problem with them. I’ve no idea if that had anything to do
with the mistake immediately thereafter, but he just didn’t look the same horse
going round. It was obvious from a long way out that something was amiss. I hope
it’s not anything that that will hinder his season.I should say well done to Lil Rockerfeller, he’s a decent horse.
Always going to be a big ask running him over 2m3 FTO out afainst a race fit LR who pressed the button round the bend and DDS couldnt go,
The mistake was a bad one, but i dont think he ever looked comfortable, id put a line through the run as before the race he had everything against him and it looked it the whole way through, i dont think he will be a champion hurdle winner, but he will find his feet hopefully NTO
Lil Rockerfeller first and L’Ami Serge second suited me.
Defi should’ve finished closer but that mistake probably not the main factor in his defeat. Being free early over further than he’d been before didn’t help either. Not surprising didn’t have much left and may do better returned to 2m in a stronger run race. That said, Defi didn’t have the chance his odds suggested.
Value Is EverythingI can see L’ami Serge reversing form in the Long Walk next year and perhaps even making his presence felt in the Stayers at the Festival.
Not sure what to make of Defi. He looked very, very fit in the preliminaries – perhaps too much so. Also wasn’t overly happy when Barry got on and ran quite freely, not happy with the early pace through the first half mile. He did flatten a flight in the home straight first time with his back legs so not sure if he felt something there. One things for sure, he’s given his trainer an almighty headache. I’ve not heard many quotes, but given his record at Cheltenham I’d imagine connections could be looking at the International in 4 weeks time bearing in mind Buveur D’air seems headed towards the Christmas Hurdle.
It was somewhat ironic to see Defi Du Seuil miss the Greatwood because it wasn’t the “Right” race for him and then see him last in the “More Suitable” race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Any combination of the four below will do for Defi fans;
Big gap between Juvenile and Open company
Lil Rockerfella is a good horse
The trip was too long
The mistake he made hurt him.I fully expected him to win also but to be honest I don’t buy the trip excuse at all. If he is as good as everyone thinks he is, even though he is only 4, he should be able to go 2 mile 3. He thrived on soft ground last year, albeit against juveniles. Plenty of time for him to improve.
He never looked comfortable going right handed; all of his wins were going the other way. I’m sure there are plenty of reasons why he finished fourth, but this would be part of my thinking.
Can’t have the trip not suiting. Winning at festival pace over about 500 yards shorter . . . He shouldn’t be troubled by that kind of test at Ascot.
Open company and different gravy of course but a feature of nearly all of his runs last season was what he found late on after travelling powerfully. His jumping has never convinced and that blunder was far from his sole poor jump yesterday where he looked just flat-backed and stiff. His lack of athleticism will very probably prevent him reaching the top of the tree even if he does, as I expect he will, put yesterday well behind him.
Being asked to go 2m3 against proven 3m horses FTO was why the distance was a problem i felt, i dont think 2m3 is a problem in general, but it was always going to be a staying test with lil rockerfeller and lami, not to mention that LR could have improved again, hes relatively young and this was a target, his form has been pretty solid over the last season and is by no means a slouch, asking DDS to give him weight was brutal
Disappointing but hopefully he bounces back, yesterday was a disaster if you fancy him for the champion hurdle, i thought they made the wrong decision asking so much FTO before the race and although he was eased at the end, i fear the race may just leave a mark.
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